Small Craft Advisory 1012, NWS Anchorage, AK

691 
FZAK52 PAFC 311213
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010045-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 mb low over Kodiak Island this morning will move inland
along the North Gulf Coast through Tue night then weaken through 
Wed night. High pressure over the western Bering Sea will weaken
as a front moves into the Western Aleutians and Bering Sea Wed and
Wed night.

$$

PKZ150-010045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010045-
Bristol Bay-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Heavy 
freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt except NW 40 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 16
ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing 
spray. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010045-
Unalaska Bay-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010045-
Adak to Kiska-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010045-
Kiska to Attu-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-010045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

819 
FZAK52 PAFC 312352
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-011300-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Northerly flow across the Bering will continue through Thu
afternoon. A front moves into the western Aleutians Wed afternoon
and remains stationary through Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-011300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
15 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-011300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-011300-
Bristol Bay-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-011300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-011300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-011300-
Unalaska Bay-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-011300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-011300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-011300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-011300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-011300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-011300-
Adak to Kiska-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-011300-
Kiska to Attu-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-011300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread
snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-011300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas in 
ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-011300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-011300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
252 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.THU...N wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A polar front continues to dominate the weather across the Bering
Sea and Southwest Alaska as sub-500 dm 500 hpa heights remain in
place aloft. This very cold arctic air can be seen pouring out
over the Bering with a growing ice edge along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. Widespread convective snow showers persist over the Bering,
with temps as cold as 9-13 degrees across the Pribilof Islands,
and -15 F and colder across the Kuskokwim Delta. On the east side
of the Alaska Range, warm subtropical air is advecting northward,
with a very pronounced subtropical jet stream associated with this
warm air advection regime. A leading low amplitude impulse aloft
is quickly propagating into Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula
this morning, with the associated storm force front tracking
inland along the North Gulf Coast. This front has brought warm
southeast winds all the way into the Matanuska Valley, Prince
William Sound, the entire Kenai Peninsula, and the Anchorage
Hillside. Turnagain Arm was blowing hurricane force with 80 MPH
gusts at Mchugh Creek and 70+ MPH winds blasting over the
Hillside. There was even a report of 100+ MPH winds through the
upper Eagle River South Fork region above 3000 feet. Another
surface wave can be seen on satellite forming south of Dutch
Harbor, and this wave will rapidly amplify as the Bering Sea
potential vorticity anomaly aloft intersects it and moves into
Bristol Bay and across the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical weather models are all depicting a similar synoptic
pattern, and are in much better agreement with the overall
details of what is going to occur the next two days. However, some
finer and impactful details remain uncertain, with the first
being the westward extent of the deformation band snowfall across
Southwest Alaska. The GFS remains the farthest west with the heavy
snow band occurring from a north-south line from Dillingham north
to Sleetmute. The ECMWF and Canadian models are dramatically
farther east and favor a line from King Salmon to Sparrevohn. As
usual the extreme solutions are not favored so this forecast will
favor a middle ground solution, which is best depicted by the 00z
and 06z NAM.

For the remainder of the region, a powerful arctic front will
cross the AKPEN and lift north through Cook Inlet and and the
Gulf Coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. The NAM and hi res models
from the United States are clear outliers and would support a
snowstorm as the incredible cold air advection (-10 C at 850 hpa
in 3 hrs) would support a powerful front and heavy snow squalls
from the southern Kenai Peninsula northward to Anchorage. For
now, those solutions will be tossed, but they are duly noted.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light rain mixed with snow will end late morning, in
conjunction with light southerly winds. Expecting mostly VFR
conditions but CIGS will drop below 5000 feet at times. Expect
increasing low level wind shear this afternoon, remaining through
the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low currently over Cook Inlet will move north this morning and
dissipate by afternoon. This will bring a mix of precipitation
types to the area today with temperatures near freezing, except in
the central and western Copper River basin where they remain well
below freezing. Another system will push into the Gulf from the
southwest tonight and Tuesday. This will bring warmer temperatures
to the area. Precipitation will mainly be confined to the coastal
areas and the Susitna valley, with downsloping keeping the
northern Cook Inlet area fairly dry. The cold front with this
system will push through Kodiak Island beginning late Tuesday.
This cold front is quite vigorous and will bring dramatically lower
temperatures to the Island Tuesday night. The cold front will work
its way towards the Southcentral mainland Tuesday night.
The timing on this front is a little uncertain, but should push
across the Anchorage area late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Another storm looks to affect the region, with the latest model
runs favoring a low pressure track from King Salmon to Anchorage.
With this in mind, the biggest change in the models has been to
shift the deformation band on the backside of the low further
east, with the heaviest snowfall now expected to be east of a
Dillingham to Crooked Creek line. Here, storm total snowfall
should be in the 10 to 25 inch range. As the low passes by, north
to northwesterly winds will increase with wrap around snowfall
continuing, allowing for fairly widespread blowing snow to
develop. Most locations will see visibilities reduced to less than
one mile at times as the heavy snow, light powdery nature of
snow, and increasing winds all interact.

Further west across the upper Kuskokwim Delta, this region will be
well removed from the snowfall, but will also be in line to see
the cold air advection aloft kick in the fastest, with 850 mb
temperatures dropping below -30 C. By tonight, sustained winds of 20
mph, with gusts at or above 30 mph, will be common during the
overnight hours. This will create dangerous wind chill conditions,
with the previous forecast package having issued the wind chill
advisory. Overall, not much change for this region as our previous
thinking remains on track. The cold weather will continue on Tuesday
area-wide, with snowfall decreasing from southwest to northeast as
we head into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
As an area of low pressure passes by to the east, a reinforcing
shot of cold weather will drop south across the Bering and
Aleutians. This will maintain an active snow shower pattern, some
of which could be locally intense, as the ocean delta-Ts increase
(the temperature difference between the sea and roughly 9000
feet). This pattern looks to continue through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Tuesday through Thursday)

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

Northerly gales and seas 15 to 25 feet will continue across the
eastern half of the Bering and Aleutians on Tuesday as low
pressure south of the AKPEN moves toward Kodiak Island. For the
western Bering, winds and seas will relax as a ridge builds over
the region. The gales diminish in coverage on Wednesday as the
low enters the Gulf and the ridge expands eastward over the
central Bering. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a band of
southeasterly gales will develop ahead of a front moving over the
Western Bering and Aleutians.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Broad southerly small-craft level winds, with perhaps some
embedded gales, will persist across the Gulf on Tuesday as a front
lifts toward the Southcentral coast. An area of westerly gales
will expand across the western and southern Gulf late Tuesday
into Wednesday as the low south of the AKPEN lifts toward a
position near Kodiak Island. These winds will continue into Thursday
as the low tracks in the northern Gulf. Seas will range from 15 to
25 feet across the Gulf through late Thursday before diminishing the
low tracks toward the Alaska Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

The active weather pattern that has been so persistent for well
over a week now will continue into the new year. By Tuesday, the
main weather feature will be a 960 to 970 mb low spinning up in
the north Pacific south of the eastern Aleutians with yet another
arctic trough digging south over the Bering. As has been the case,
model performance this far out has varied considerably. Thus,
confidence in the evolution of this surface low and its
interaction with the digging trough remains low. With that said,
it does appear that this system will bring accumulating snow and
strong northeasterly winds to portions of Southwest Alaska. The
main difference between the models is track and timing, and these
variables will impact where the heaviest bands of snow set up.
Right now, this could be anywhere from along the Alaska Range
north to Bethel.

For Southcentral, Tuesday will also be quite active as a series of
shortwaves ahead of the aforementioned low ushers in bands of
precipitation and much warmer air with a continued southerly
flow. It is hard to believe right now with so much cold air in
place, but this system looks to push temperatures above freezing
not just for the immediate coast, but also for areas farther
inland and around Cook Inlet. Obviously, any mention of
temperatures above freezing will mean a changeover in
precipitation from snow to a wintry mix or even all rain. The big
question remains how much of this precipitation makes it over the
mountains and into places like Anchorage, as there will also be a
downslope component accompanying these shortwaves which will help
limit precipitation amounts. The warmer temperatures and mixed
precipitation will continue into Wednesday as the main low tracks
into the Gulf.

Conditions then turn colder and more showery for the second half
of the week as the low tracks south and a ridge develops over
interior Alaska. This set up will usher in colder air across the
Southern Mainland as northerly outflow winds pick up in intensity.
By the weekend, it appears the Southern Mainland will remain cold
and fairly dry. The active weather will stay over the Bering and
Aleutians where a series of surface fronts attached to a Kamchatka
Low pass over the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 155 161.
 Winter Weather Advisory 181.
 Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 160 165 170>173 175>177 179>181 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 160 165 179>181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/SB