Storm Warning 188, NWS Anchorage, AK

471 
FZAK51 PAFC 150026
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151330-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 971 mb North Pacific low Sat night moves to 50 nm southeast of 
Chignik at 970 mb then moves to 200 nm southeast of Sitkinak at 
980 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-151330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151330-
Resurrection Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151330-
Prince William Sound-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151330-
Port Valdez-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151330-
Valdez Narrows-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151330-
Valdez Arm-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151330-
Passage Canal-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151330-
Barren Islands East-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 45 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151330-
Chiniak Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151330-
Marmot Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151330-
Shelikof Strait-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9
ft in the evening building to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151330-
Kachemak Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft in the inner bay. Seas 4 ft in the
morning building to 7 ft in the outer bay. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight in the inner bay. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight in the outer bay. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

749 
FZAK51 PAFC 151219
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160115-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A storm force front in the central Gulf lifts to the northern Gulf 
Sun night. A 977 mb low 180 nm southwest of Sitkinak Sun night 
weakens over the central Gulf Mon evening. A front enters the western
Gulf Mon night.

$$

PKZ119-160115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 23
ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160115-
Resurrection Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160115-
Prince William Sound-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160115-
Port Valdez-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160115-
Valdez Narrows-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160115-
Valdez Arm-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160115-
Passage Canal-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160115-
Barren Islands East-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 45 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160115-
Chiniak Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160115-
Marmot Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160115-
Shelikof Strait-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160115-
Kachemak Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

626 
FZAK51 PAFC 160041
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161400-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the northern Gulf stalls through Monday and
diminishes by Monday night. A second front moves across the
southern Gulf Tuesday morning and moves to the coast in the
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-161400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 22
ft subsiding to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161400-
Resurrection Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161400-
Prince William Sound-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161400-
Port Valdez-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161400-
Valdez Narrows-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161400-
Valdez Arm-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161400-
Passage Canal-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161400-
Barren Islands East-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161400-
Chiniak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161400-
Marmot Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161400-
Shelikof Strait-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after
midnight.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161400-
Kachemak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKST Fri Dec 13 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weakening low continues to lift slowly northward across the
western Gulf, with showers and strong winds out ahead of it across
the northern to western Gulf. With easterly flow, showers extend
onshore across the eastern Kenai Peninsula, with a few showers
slopping over the mountains to the western Kenai and Anchorage.
As per the 12Z Anchorage sounding, a warm above freezing layer
is still in place, so precipitation is falling primarily as rain.
Marginally cooler air aloft is advecting in from the east, but
it isn't enough to completely erode the warm layer. A surface
trough extends east-northeast from the Gulf low. This is leading
to strengthening winds out ahead of it, particularly along the
north Gulf coast. Steady rain also accompanies the trough.

Weak upper level waves transiting Southwest Alaska are producing
areas of mostly very light precipitation. Colder air is moving in
from the Bering with a well defined, but weak trough axis. This is
slowly transitioning precip to snow. However, for the time being
there is a wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain across the
region.

Out west, a high amplitude trough is amplifying over the north
central Pacific, as a strong short-wave digs down the back side.
As a result, a new surface low has spun up on the front side of
the trough and is tracking toward the Eastern Aleutians (Dutch
Harbor). A frontal boundary out ahead of this low is strung out
along the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea, leading to rain and
gale force winds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with handling of large scale features
through Saturday. Solutions then diverge with track and strength
of a new surface low moving from the Pacific toward Kodiak Island
and the Alaska Peninsula Saturday night through Sunday. All
solutions are much stronger with this low than yesterday, which
makes sense based on the high amplitude pattern. However, the GFS
solution seems too strong. For now, will take an average position
and depth. While forecast confidence is low in the vicinity of
Kodiak and the Alaska Peninsula, there is much better agreement
elsewhere and forecast confidence is quite a bit higher.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...There is a chance of light precipitation as the upper low
over the Gulf opens into a trough and crosses overhead of
Anchorage between about 12Z and 18Z Saturday. However, low level
southeasterly flow will persist, so VFR ceilings should persist.
Precipitation-type is also a challenge, with forecast soundings
maintaining at least a small above freezing layer. Could see
rain, freezing rain, or even snow - but precipitation will be very
light and possibly not even measurable. As the upper wave passes
by, Turnagain winds will bend into Anchorage, which will cause
temperatures to jump to well above freezing. These winds will be
relatively short-lived. As a front moves into the southwestern
Gulf Saturday afternoon, down Inlet pressure gradients will
strengthen and push the Turnagain wind back over the northern
Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low pressure system in the central Gulf is currently south of
Seward as it continues its progression towards the northern Gulf
coast. This low will continue to produce gusty east-southeasterly
winds across the Gulf as the low looks to make landfall. Rain
continues to fall across the coastal regions from Kodiak City to
western Prince William Sound and Cordova. Waves of upper level
energy will continue to rotate around this area of low pressure to
provide enough support for periods of very light rainfall or
sprinkles to make its way to the leeward side of the Chugach and
Kenai mountains this evening. This energy combined with a shift in
wind direction from southeasterly to southerly aloft, will make
for increased chances of precipitation around the Anchorage Bowl
overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This wind direction will
continue to bring warmer temperatures up Cook Inlet which should
keep precipitation in the lower elevations as liquid across
Anchorage and the Mat Valley. Uncertainty with precipitation type
remains as the trough lifts north and the Turnagain Arm wind bends
over Anchorage, as the transition to a southeasterly wind over
Anchorage would likely push temperatures a few degrees above
freezing and keep any rainfall from freezing at the surface.
However, if the wind does not bend into the area, temperatures
could stay right around the freezing mark and allow for some
pockets of freezing rain. If we are to see pockets of freezing
rain across the lowest elevations, any accumulation looks like it
will be light. Higher elevations of the passes will remain cold
enough that snow accumulations of a few inches are likely.

A front associated with an area of low pressure centered over the
Aleutian islands will cross the Gulf and make its way inland
Saturday into Sunday. Due to this, the wind direction will shift
back to southeasterly which looks to downslope over Anchorage and
western Kenai Peninsula similar to earlier this week.
Additionally, Turnagain Arm winds will pick up with peak gusts of
50 mph expected Saturday night. Due to the downsloping, expect
little to no precipitation across the region except for coastal
and mountainous locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Scattered rain and snow showers will continue through late
evening as upper level short-waves continue to move overhead from
low pressure over the Gulf. Patchy fog is expected to redevelop
along the coastal areas again tonight. The next front moves across
the Alaska Peninsula late tonight with the boundary spreading
rain to Bristol Bay Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds
will increase as the front quickly moves north to the Kuskokwim
Delta early afternoon. The Kuskokwim Valley will not see much
precipitation from this front as the occluded system pulls the
boundary northwestward across the Bering, the eastward extent of
the boundary shearing apart. Winds across much of the Valley will
keep a light east to northeast flow, with only the Kuskokwim
Mountains expected to see snow and gusty southeasterly flow.

The second front moves to the Southwest coast Sunday morning which
will re-enforce gusty southeasterly flow and bring another round
of light precipitation. The Kuskokwim Valley will again see a
similar wind pattern across the region as the fast moving front
follows a similar track as the first one. Winds and precipitation
taper down late Monday night as the second surface low slowly
fills as begins to drift east toward the gulf.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An active weather pattern is currently underway with the next
storm system organizing south of the Central Aleutians. The low
associated with this system rapidly deepens to 955 mb as it lifts
across the Eastern Aleutians tonight. Storm force winds are
expected around the core of the low through Saturday, then winds
taper down with the system remaining nearly stationary and filling
through Saturday night. Another low develops and moves north late
Saturday night. This low crosses over the Alaska Peninsula to the
Southern Bering early Sunday, but is kicked to the east Sunday
night as yet another North pacific low races up to the Central
Aleutians by Sunday evening. Precipitation will mainly be rain
around the core of these next several systems, with mixed
precipitation or snow across the northern and western areas of the
Bering as these low keep a tap into the colder air mass over
Kamchatka.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...
The storm track during this period will be from the Aleutian
Islands eastward to the Gulf of Alaska. High end small craft
advisories or gale warnings will be the norm as each storm system
moves through. Forecast confidence with low and frontal positions
is above average.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The global models are in decent agreement with the synoptic
pattern for north Pacific and Bering through Thursday December
19th. At the onset of this forecast period there are two lows, one
near the AKPEN and a Kamchatka low. There is a dome of high
pressure between the two. There are some minor difference with the
timing of two different cyclones but the forecast intensity is
only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is very similar.
Expect these systems to move from west to east with the first
storm tracking into the Gulf Of Alaska. All the while, the second
storm will head into the Bering with the frontal boundary pushing
across the Aleutian chain. For Southcentral Alaska, temperatures
will be near or slightly above normal. For the Anchorage metro
area the chances of snow in this forecast period look very slim
given the current run of the models.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 165 170 172>174.
 Gale Warning 119 120 125 130>132 136>138 150 155 160 171 175>180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB/PJS