Gale Warning 726, NWS Anchorage, AK

590 
FZAK51 PAFC 141258
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150130-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A front in the western Gulf reaches the central Gulf Sat night.
The front strengthens as it nears the northern Gulf coast and
remains in place through Sun night. A second low forms 90 nm south
of Sitkinak at 980 mb Sun night.


$$

PKZ119-150130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150130-
Resurrection Bay-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...Light winds early becoming S wind 25 kt then diminishing to
10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft early building to 5 ft then 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150130-
Prince William Sound-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight.
Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150130-
Port Valdez-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150130-
Valdez Narrows-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY and SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150130-
Valdez Arm-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt except SE near the Sound. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150130-
Passage Canal-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150130-
Barren Islands East-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt shifting to E in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas building to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 45 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150130-
Chiniak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150130-
Marmot Bay-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150130-
Shelikof Strait-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...20 wind 20 kt early becoming E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft 
building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-150130-
Kachemak Bay-
358 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt...strongest near the Inlet. Seas 3 ft. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight.
Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

471 
FZAK51 PAFC 150026
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151330-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 971 mb North Pacific low Sat night moves to 50 nm southeast of 
Chignik at 970 mb then moves to 200 nm southeast of Sitkinak at 
980 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-151330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151330-
Resurrection Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151330-
Prince William Sound-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151330-
Port Valdez-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151330-
Valdez Narrows-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151330-
Valdez Arm-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151330-
Passage Canal-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151330-
Barren Islands East-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 45 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151330-
Chiniak Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151330-
Marmot Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151330-
Shelikof Strait-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9
ft in the evening building to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 10 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151330-
Kachemak Bay-
326 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft in the inner bay. Seas 4 ft in the
morning building to 7 ft in the outer bay. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight in the inner bay. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight in the outer bay. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

749 
FZAK51 PAFC 151219
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160115-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A storm force front in the central Gulf lifts to the northern Gulf 
Sun night. A 977 mb low 180 nm southwest of Sitkinak Sun night 
weakens over the central Gulf Mon evening. A front enters the western
Gulf Mon night.

$$

PKZ119-160115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 23
ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160115-
Resurrection Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160115-
Prince William Sound-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160115-
Port Valdez-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160115-
Valdez Narrows-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160115-
Valdez Arm-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160115-
Passage Canal-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160115-
Barren Islands East-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 45 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160115-
Chiniak Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160115-
Marmot Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160115-
Shelikof Strait-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160115-
Kachemak Bay-
319 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

626 
FZAK51 PAFC 160041
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161400-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the northern Gulf stalls through Monday and
diminishes by Monday night. A second front moves across the
southern Gulf Tuesday morning and moves to the coast in the
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-161400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 22
ft subsiding to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161400-
Resurrection Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161400-
Prince William Sound-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161400-
Port Valdez-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161400-
Valdez Narrows-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161400-
Valdez Arm-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161400-
Passage Canal-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161400-
Barren Islands East-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161400-
Chiniak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161400-
Marmot Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161400-
Shelikof Strait-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after
midnight.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161400-
Kachemak Bay-
341 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 AM AKST Fri Dec 13 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

For the third night in a row, the overall upper air pattern
remains somewhat unchanged as a weakening fully-stacked low in the
Gulf of Alaska dominates the overall flow regime. There is a
retrograding mid-level PV anomaly riding over the Alaska Range,
with the leftover cloud cover lifting into the interior. A
weakening cold upper trough over the Bering Sea is the remnant of
a once stronger upper trough, and it sits over a remnant Arctic
airmass over most of the Bering Sea. A dynamic mobile trough is
now moving into the far Southwest Bering/Aleutians, which is
bringing mixed rain/snow to Shemya, Adak, and Atka. Over the
Mainland, weather remains mostly quiet as the pressure gradient is
weak and mostly offshore (weak offshore flow), with most of the
precipitation impacting the northern Gulf Coast. Some light
freezing rain is still occurring over the Kuskokwim Delta in
association with weak easterly waves moving overtop a shallow near
surface warm layer. Over Southcentral, light rain/freezing rain
is occurring across parts of Anchorage, and this is also observed
on the 12z sounding as a shallow warm layer above the surface.
Outside of the Copper Basin, temperatures continue to run well
above normal for both daytime highs and lows.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
general synoptic pattern through Sunday. They differ, however,
with the placement and orientation of a storm force low which will
move over the Aleutian Chain as they seem to continue trending
eastward, which currently has the storm force surface low
directly over Dutch Harbor by Saturday. This forecast will trend
this feature eastward favoring the NAM hi-res, with strong storm
force winds on both sides of the low.

Thereafter, while the synoptic pattern is being handled well, the
models differ with the track of a secondary NPAC low moving up
toward the AKPEN Saturday night and Sunday, which would impact gap
flows through Bristol Bay area and the front as it lifts toward
the Gulf Coast. This will also make precipitation forecast
challenging for Southwest Alaska as bands of warm air form into
deformation zones as they move north. Forecast confidence is
moderate.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist with spotty
sprinkles today and this evening. Much uncertainty develops
tonight as a weak disturbance passes through, bringing the
possibility of a rain and snow mix and MVFR CIGS. For now will
favor a more conservative approach introducing light rain/snow and
VFR conditions for late tonight and Sat morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
The pattern will start to become slightly more active as we head
toward the weekend. The vertically stacked low in the Gulf
remains the dominant feature. It continues its slow drift to the
north and as of 4am, is nearly due east of Kodiak City. Steady
rain continues to fall along the Gulf Coast from Cordova over to
Western Prince William Sound courtesy of this feature. There is
enough upper level energy and mid level instability wrapping
around the center to allow some of the showers to drift over the
mountains and into areas around Cook Inlet. These showers are
extremely light, however, with temperatures below freezing across
most of the Anchorage Bowl and parts of the Matanuska Valley,
anything that does fall could make for slippery road conditions.

The low will push right up against the southern Kenai Peninsula
coast late this evening as it makes "landfall." This will
continue to produce gale-force level winds into Prince William
Sound as well as bring some gusty winds to the Turnagain Arm and
Anchorage Hillside. The system will then drift right over
Anchorage Saturday morning as it weakens. This should bring a
brief period of gusty southeasterly winds into town. It will also
provide our best chance of some light precipitation. At this
point, this will likely fall as a wintry mix of snow and rain,
and possibly some freezing rain. There will initially be some
warm air at mountain top levels which could allow for some super
cooled water droplets. However, cold air will filter in on the
backside of the low and cause any lingering precipitation to fall
as snow. Little to no accumulation is expected near sea level. For
the higher elevations of Turnagain and Thompson Pass, a few
inches of snow are likely, so weekend travelers should be prepared
for that.

Late Saturday into Sunday, the pattern will continue to become
more active as a warm front approaches the western Gulf of AK
moving towards the Kenai Peninsula. This will bring southeast
winds and steady rain back to the Gulf Coast with down-inlet winds
for the Matanuska Valley and Cook Inlet area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Several weak upper level waves have helped to allow light
precipitation to continue over the inland areas of Bristol Bay
this morning. Farther north, light precipitation has also been
falling over areas along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. As midlevel
instability persists, showers will likely continue over the area
with little to no snow accumulation expected by the afternoon.

The next system arrives by Saturday as a front lifts inland,
bringing gusty easterly flow. While downsloping is likely to
occur, areas that do see precipitation will likely see snow to
start with a change to rain rather quickly (or a mix of rain and
snow in places) as southerly flow raises temperatures, especially
along the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A weak ridge over the central Aleutians will move eastward today,
bringing generally calmer conditions to the eastern Bering Friday
evening. The next system, estimated at 957 mb and currently
centered southwest of Shemya, is a strengthening low moving south
along the Aleutian Chain. This low quickly regenerates south of
Unalaska Island by late Friday night. As the low drifts slightly
northward on Saturday, storm force marine winds are expected
around the core of the low. The most recent change models have
shown is a slightly shifted position to the east, which was
updated in this morning's forecast.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...
Overall, confidence with positions of lows and fronts is above
average. The primary forecast challenge is whether windspeeds top
out at gale force or storm force. For now, will largely max winds
out at gale force until have more confidence in the depth of
these storm systems. The areas which will experience the strongest
winds include the northern Gulf and eastern Aleutians Sunday
through Sunday night, then out along the Aleutian Chain Sunday
night through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The global models are in good agreement with the northern Pacific
low through Wednesday December 18th. There are some minor
difference with the timing of two different cyclones that develop
in the north Pacific and move into the Aleutians but the forecast
intensity is only a few millibars off, and the forecast track is
very similar. With above normal confidence, expect back to back
lows to impact the Aleutians. The respective precipitation shields
and pressure gradient force will move from west to east...in
typical mid-latitude fashion. There is a dome of high pressure in
the central Pacific with a ridge axis that moves into the Chain
and serves as a lull between systems.

For Southcentral/AKPEN and southwest Alaska, the forecast period
commences with a mature cyclone entering the region. Even through
the Canadian/GFS and ECMWF are not in sync with the placement of
the surface low, there is widespread consensus for onshore flow
from the Kenai Peninsula to Kodiak and the Alaska Peninsula. This
low decays and fills rapidly, ultimately becoming absorbed into
the longwave pattern. The first aforementioned Pacific low is
moving straight into the Gulf of Alaska and will undergo the
process of frontolysis there...which means minimal impacts for
Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales: 119, 120, 125, 130-132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170,
171, 175-180, 352, 413.
         Storm: 172-174, 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...PJS