Storm Warning 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

723 
FZAK52 PAFC 181245
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190145-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 958 mb North Pacific low 250 nm SW of Adak moves to 175 nm 
SE of Atka at 964 mb late Mon night, then moves to near 
Perryville at 976 mb Tue evening before moving into Southwest 
Alaska. A second 976 mb low develops 100 nm S of Cold Bay Mon 
night, moves to 150 nm SW of Kipnuk at 958 mb midday Tue, then 
remains nearly stationary as it weakens to 963 mb through Tue 
night.

$$

PKZ150-190145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 28 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 55 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
29 ft subsiding to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190145-
Bristol Bay-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft after
midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt except S 50 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 15 ft
except 18 ft from Port Moller E.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 7 ft
building to 12 ft after midnight. Patchy fog.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190145-
Unalaska Bay-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft
building to 11 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190145-
Adak to Kiska-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190145-
Kiska to Attu-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray N of Kuskokwim
Bay. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray N of Kuskokwim Bay.
Snow with rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 AM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

598 
FZAK52 PAFC 190026
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191330-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 mb low 205 nm south of Adak weakens to 977 mb 40 nm south 
of Cold Bay then shifts to 65 nm south of Nunivak Island at 962 
mb and loops to 30 nm east of Cape Newenham at 977 mb by Wed 
afternoon. Its front pushes into the Gulf of Alaska for Wed 
afternoon. A 980 mb South Kamchatka low pushes its front over the 
Western Aleutians by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-191330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
 Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
 Rain.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191330-
Bristol Bay-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. From Port 
Moller E, E wind 20 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt except S 35 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
From Port Moller E, S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
 Patchy fog.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191330-
Unalaska Bay-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191330-
Adak to Kiska-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
 Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191330-
Kiska to Attu-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft. Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
326 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKST Sun Nov 17 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weakening upper level low, currently in the process of opening
up into a trough, was responsible for the record snowfall seen in
Anchorage yesterday. The low/trough is over the Talkeetna
Mountains and is quickly lifting northeastward. The associated
ridging and subsidence in the left entrance region of a jet streak
has helped cause an abrupt ending to the snow in Anchorage. Clearing
skies are evident on satellite over much of the Kenai Peninsula,
moving northeastward across Anchorage and towards the Matanuska
Valley. Ahead of the main trough axis, a few rain and snow showers
are on radar over Prince William Sound between Valdez and Cordova.
Snow continues over the Copper River Basin, including Glennallen
as well.

A second upper level trough/low is over the Y-K Delta region as
well. As this feature also weakens and moves east later today,
additional winter weather is possible. Abundant cloud cover exists
over Southwest Alaska ahead of this trough, with snow showers
ongoing in some areas, especially along coastal Bristol Bay. A col
is over the northern Bering north of the Pribilofs, with another
upper level trough extending over the western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are generally handling the broad synoptic pattern well,
though by late Monday night, there are significant differences on
where a newly formed North Pacific low will be centered relative
to the Southwest Alaska coastline. There are also large
differences on how strong the low will be at that point, with the
GFS by far the strongest, and the EC by far the weakest. Outside
of those differences, other model discrepancies and forecast
challenges focus around local effects. Those local effects
include: potential snowfall from Anchorage north this afternoon
and evening, the wind and snow forecast for the southern Kenai
Peninsula at the same time, and the potential for hazardous winter
weather across portions of Southwest Alaska Monday into Tuesday.
Warmer air moving into Southern Alaska with the low Monday night
into Tuesday will also likely cause precipitation type issues with
a moving rain-snow line. With so many uncertain variables in the
short to mid-term forecast, forecast confidence is lower than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR to MVFR conditions will persist as the cloud cover from
yesterday's snow moves northeast out of the area. The next round
of snow comes in late afternoon into the evening today. It should
not be nearly as strong or produce nearly as much snow as
yesterday, but is expected to drop ceilings and visibilities into
the MVFR to temporarily IFR category as it moves through. The
snow ends by midnight, if not sooner.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Monday)...

The potent upper level low and short-wave trough which brought
significant snow accumulation to Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley yesterday will exit across the Copper River Basin this
morning. A few low level snow showers will linger in upslope
areas of south to west facing mountains. Areas of low clouds will
also linger due to the absence of winds to clear things out.

Two more short-wave troughs crossing Southwest Alaska will then
make their way into Southcentral this afternoon through tonight.
The weaker of the two short-waves will lift northward across the
Cook Inlet to Susitna Valley corridor this afternoon. A slight
increase in low level upslope flow will be more than enough to
produce snow showers thanks to the low level moisture and weak
instability in place. While there could be a few snow showers
anywhere ahead of the wave, the Susitna Valley will be in the best
location to receive some light snow accumulation.

The second stronger short-wave will follow closely behind the
first tonight, becoming negatively tilted as it reaches
Southcentral and accompanied by another round of low level cold
air advection. Expect more widespread snow showers to develop
ahead of this trough overnight, especially along the south to west
sides of mountain ranges. Farther east, eastern Prince William
Sound will see some of the highest precipitation amounts due to
upslope flow and greater instability as the arctic air mass
crosses the warm Gulf waters. Cordova will see mostly rain, mixed
with snow as the colder air arrives. Valdez and vicinity should be
just cold enough to keep precipitation as all snow.

Gusty westerly winds will develop across the western Gulf and Cook
Inlet areas today as cold air crosses the Alaska Peninsula. The
track of the upper waves will cause winds to bend northeastward
into Kachemak Bay and Homer. Expect some "lake-effect" type snow
showers to develop along Kachemak Bay, though expect any
accumulation will be light.

The upper waves will exit across the Copper River Basin Monday,
with light snow once again lingering along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sunday
through Tuesday)...

The forecast period starts out quiet for southwest Alaska.
However, cold temperatures will be in place with overnight lows
expected to drop below zero for interior areas tonight. Monday
will see a change in the pattern with a frontal system approaching
from the Bering Sea. This will make weather interesting as cold
air and northeasterly winds will still be in place at the surface
when this front approaches.

Weather should really take a turn Monday night into Tuesday
morning as this front moves ashore. This system will warm
temperatures for the Bristol Bay area to see rain and a rain/snow
mix, while the Y-K Delta and places near Bethel will stay cold
enough to see all snow. Finding the line where this transition
will occur is always tricky, right now it looks to be around
Dillingham. Winds are also expected to increase, with the
strongest winds anticipated Tuesday morning. It is still possible
the Y-K Delta could see blizzard conditions late Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this system. It's borderline right now, with
blowing snow expected, but the question is how much visibility
will be reduced. We are still making this determination, so stay
tuned for forecast updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Sunday through Tuesday)...

Low pressure is currently entering the western Aleutians as a
longwave trough replaces an upper level ridge over the Bering. As
this trough moves across the Aleutians, it will transition the
Bering Sea from the relatively quiet weather it has seen the past
few days to a much more active area. Closely following the low
entering today will be a broad, stronger low. This will create
large swaths of gale force winds across most of the Bering Sea and
Aleutians Islands. A few areas of storm force winds will also be
present in the central Bering and south side of the eastern
Aleutians Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will finally start to
taper late Tuesday. Rain and low level cloud cover will also be
present through the short term for the Bering Sea.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the extended period marine forecast on Tuesday, there
will be a very large high end gale force to near storm force low
covering the entire Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, with the
associated gale force front moving into the Gulf of Alaska. There
is some uncertainty on a dangerous and compact low moving from the
Alaska Peninsula through Bristol Bay Tuesday, with some models
(the GFS) depicting a sub-960 hpa fast moving storm force low
rapidly moving northward across Bristol Bay to the Bering Strait.
For now this forecast will not include such a deep low in the
marine forecast, but mariners should remain aware of this
potential.

Eventually, the larger scale low will weaken and move inland on
Tuesday night as the gale force front continues to move east
through the Gulf of Alaska. Broad cyclonic flow will persist over
the Bering with the next potential storm force low moving into the
southern Bering/Aleutians on Wed afternoon into Thursday, moving
east into the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday afternoon. There is quite
a bit of uncertainty with this storm, but mariners should expect
high seas and unsettled weather with this storm mid to late week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning Monday evening, a stormy pattern over western Alaska
will move into Southcentral Monday night into Tuesday. A warm
front associated with a low in the eastern Bering, combined with
cold air remaining over the region, will create the conditions
necessary for a wintry mix of precipitation across southern
Alaska.

The first of two fronts, driven by a strong upper-level jet, will
move across Alaska bringing warm air and ample precipitation from
tapping the subtropics. The cold air will be in place for awhile
creating favorable conditions for snowfall, until the warm air
displaces the cold. This will lead to rain and possibly freezing
rain Tuesday night into Wednesday with heavier snowfall for the
higher elevations. As that front moves east, a second front looks
to move through the region Friday. While confidence is high that a
front associated with a strong low will move across southern
Alaska, uncertainty remains with the storm track of the low and
how far north or south it may end up. This track will determine if
we will see rainfall or unsettled winter weather across the
southern mainland. Heading into Saturday night, it looks like cold
air will move into the area, wrapping around an area of low
pressure and makes its way south. In summary, active weather will
continue throughout the week with impacts expected for many
precipitation types: rain, snow and freezing rain. Temperatures
look to start off cold before warming up and then ending the
extended forecast period cold again.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 174.
Gale Warning: 170-173, 175-185, 411-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA/CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
942 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 AM     SNOW             17 S KNIK               61.21N 149.78W
11/17/2019  E8.7 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SPOTTER REPORTED 8.7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
944 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     SNOW             15 NNW HOPE             61.09N 149.80W
11/17/2019  E3.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 3 INCHES OF SNOW. REPORTED
            IT RAINING MOST OF THE DAY. TURNED TO SNOW
            AT 4:45PM ON THE 16TH, THEN STOPPED AFTER
            11:30PM.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1046 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 AM     SNOW             3 ESE DILLINGHAM        59.04N 158.46W
11/17/2019  E12.0 INCH       DILLINGHAM         AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DILLINGHAM PD REPORTED 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
            THAT ENDED EARLY AM OF NOVEMBER 16TH.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1118 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.89W
11/17/2019  E4.8 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 4.75 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST SUN NOV 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 AM     SNOW             5 SSW MEADOW LAKES      61.56N 149.66W
11/17/2019  E12.0 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTED 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

ED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKST SUN NOV 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     SNOW             12 NNW HOPE             61.05N 149.77W
11/17/2019  E3.9 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTED 3.9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
            PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

ED