Blizzard Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

212 
WWAK42 PAFC 190024
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

AKZ161-191500-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.191119T0600Z-191119T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.IS.W.0001.191119T0900Z-191119T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
324 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM AKST
TUESDAY FROM DILLINGHAM NORTH...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of two to four tenths of an
  inch. Winds gusting up to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Dillingham and areas north, including New Stuyahok and 
  Togiak. 

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages are possible due to the ice. Travel 
  could be extremely hazardous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow overnight will transition to freezing
  rain. Temperatures will quickly warm mid to late morning, which
  will change precipitation to rain for the rest of the day.
  Freezing rain and snow will persist longer farther north. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Ice Storm Warning means significant amounts of ice
accumulation will make travel extremely hazardous. Travel is
strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Snapped power lines and falling tree branches are also
possible. 

&&

$$

AKZ155-191500-
/O.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.191119T1200Z-191120T0000Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
324 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 12 inches are expected. Winds of 35 to 45 mph, with gusts
  as high as 60 mph are expected. Blowing snow will cause 
  visibilities to fall to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta, including Bethel. The worst 
  conditions will be along the coast.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  will reduce visibility to near zero at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow and strong winds will develop
  quickly early Tuesday morning. The worst conditions are 
  expected through the morning, with visibility slowly improving 
  in the late afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor
visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions,
making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a winter
survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your
vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ152-191500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.191119T1200Z-191120T0300Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
324 PM AKST Mon Nov 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM
AKST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley, including Aniak and Sleetmute.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow will start in the early 
  morning hours and continue through the day.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

394 
WWAK42 PAFC 191335
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

AKZ155-200000-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-191120T0000Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
435 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 4 to 12 inches are expected. Winds of 35 to 45 mph, with 
  gusts as high as 60 mph are expected. Blowing snow will cause 
  visibilities to fall to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta, including Bethel. The worst 
  conditions will be along the coast.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  will reduce visibility to near zero at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow and strong winds will develop 
  quickly early Tuesday morning. The worst conditions are 
  expected through the morning, with visibility slowly improving 
  in the late afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor
visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions,
making travel very hazardous. If you must travel, have a winter
survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your
vehicle.

&&

$$

AKZ161-191800-
/O.CON.PAFC.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191119T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
435 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of two to four tenths of 
  an inch. Winds gusting up to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Dillingham and areas north, including New Stuyahok.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages are possible due to the ice. Travel 
  could be extremely hazardous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow overnight will transition to 
  freezing rain. Temperatures will quickly warm mid to late 
  morning, which will change precipitation to rain for the rest 
  of the day. Freezing rain and snow will persist longer farther 
  north.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Ice Storm Warning means significant amounts of ice
accumulation will make travel extremely hazardous. Travel is
strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Snapped power lines and falling tree branches are also
possible.

&&

$$

AKZ152-200245-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-191120T0300Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
435 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley, including Aniak and Sleetmute.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow will start in the early 
  morning hours and continue through the day.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

436 
WWAK42 PAFC 191809
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
909 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

AKZ161-191915-
/O.EXP.PAFC.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191119T1800Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
909 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...ICE STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

$$

AKZ155-200000-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-191120T0000Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
909 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 12 inches are expected. Winds of 35 to 45 mph. Gusts as
  high as 60 mph along the coast. Blowing snow will cause 
  visibilities to fall to one quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta, including Bethel and Nunivak Island. 
  The worst conditions will be along the coast.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  will reduce visibility to near zero at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The worst conditions are expected through 
  the morning, with visibility slowly improving in the late 
  afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

AKZ152-200300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-191120T0300Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
909 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley, including Aniak and Sleetmute.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

054 
WWAK42 PAFC 192338
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
238 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

AKZ155-200300-
/O.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-191120T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
238 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST NORTH OF KIPNUK...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions will continue into evening for the
  Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Additional snow of up to 2 inches
  expected. Winds of 35 to 45 mph. Gusts as high as 60 mph.
  Blowing snow will continue to cause visibilities to fall to one
  quarter mile or less.

* WHERE...Kuskokwim Delta Coast, including Chevak, Hooper Bay and
  Mekoryuk. 

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  will reduce visibility to near zero at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Conditions are beginning to improve for
  areas farther south, including Bethel. Of note, light freezing
  rain is likely after the snow ends, and is already being
  reported in bethel. Blizzard conditions will persist along the 
  Kuskokwim Delta Coast north of Kipnuk, including Chevak, Hooper 
  Bay and Mekoryuk. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

AKZ152-200300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-191120T0300Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
238 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...Lower Kuskokwim Valley, including Aniak and Sleetmute.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

432 
WWAK42 PAFC 200300
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

AKZ155-200400-
/O.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0006.000000T0000Z-191120T0300Z/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
600 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The Blizzard Warning has expired.

$$

AKZ152-200400-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-191120T0300Z/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
600 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The Winter Weather Advisory has expired.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKST Sun Nov 17 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The 500 mb low that was a large factor in Saturday's snowfall in
Southcentral has now moved northeast to near the Alcan border in
the Interior of the state. The next Upper level low is digging
southward this afternoon over the Kuskokwim Valley into the
Bristol Bay region. The 850 mb temperatures with this low are
quite a bit colder than the previous system as well. This is the
trough that will move rapidly eastward overnight and make it to
the Alcan border by Monday morning.

The large low that is that start of a very complex and active
weather pattern this week can be seen on satellite moving into
the central Aleutians this afternoon. Farther southwest, another
smaller low can be seen. The 250 mb jet is running just south of
these two lows and digging southward under the second, currently
weaker one. This will cause the stronger low to the east to weaken
and while the jet strengthens the smaller one to the southwest and
make it the main low tomorrow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are becoming better aligned with the track of the low
that is rapidly intensifying near the Alaska Peninsula Monday
night. Before the 12Z runs, we could not even pin it down to that
location at that time. All models are now trending toward the
solution the NAM had yesterday with slowing the progression of the
low inland after it moves onshore in the vicinity of Cape
Newenham Tuesday night. Previous model runs had some support for a
fast push inland, but this is looking much less likely which is
allowing for forecast decisions to be made with higher confidence
for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The biggest question for the TAF this evening is whether
or not there will be snow showers at the airport due to an upper
level wave moving up from the Southwest. Even if there are some,
conditions are not expected to drop below MVFR conditions for
ceilings or visibility in the snow showers. After these pass by
midnight, there is the potential for MVFR ceilings to develop and
persist into Monday morning due.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

For tonight, another dusting of light snow (1"-2") is possible
across the region as an upper level disturbance moves across from
west to east, however accumulations will mainly be over the Mat-
Su Valleys. On Monday, the next wave of energy ejects from low
pressure lifting over the Bering. Precipitation will be largely
confined to the gulf and surrounding coasts as the upper wave
shears apart quickly. For inland locations, Monday will be the
break between systems.

The next system organizing late Monday will impact the region on
Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing precipitation challenges and gusty
winds. The front with this storm system pushes across Kodiak
Island late Monday, spreading rain and gusty gale force winds to
marine areas from Kodiak to the north coastal areas by early
Tuesday morning. The surface front will stall along the coast as
the associated surface low lifts across the Alaska Peninsula mid
Tuesday morning. Gusty south to southeasterly winds will increase
along the front and then persist through Wednesday. Winds will
also increase for typical channeled terrain such as the Turnagain
Arm and Hillside, Portage Valley, Matanuska Valley and Copper
River Basin.

Most of the inland locations will see a few light showers on
Tuesday as snow in the morning mixing with or changing over to rain
during the afternoon. The coastal locations and the Kenai should
warm steadily with temperatures climbing over freezing by the
afternoon. This warming trend is also expected for inland
areas...although to a lesser extent. The exception to this will be
along the Western Alaska Range where a cold air mass at the base
of the mountains will support all snow. We are currently looking
at heavy snow falling across the Susitna Valley on Tuesday;
although, there is some uncertainty on how far north warm air
intrudes from the Gulf. There is better certainty that the cold
pool holds north and west of Talkeetna. Another challenge presents
across the Copper River Basin...the cold pool across this region
will be over-run initially by deep southerly flow from the
subtropical air mass. With better upper level dynamic support, the
warmer air may mix down to the surface more efficiently.
Precipitation will start as snow with freezing rain and rain
likely from Tonsina south. Heavy snow may also bring another
significant round of accumulations Tuesday into
Wednesday...especially along the southern slopes of the Alaska
Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Tuesday evening)

The proverbial "calm before the storm" best sums up the weather
through Monday afternoon. A rapidly deepening area of low pressure
will move from the North Pacific into the Bristol Bay region.
There remains some questions as to what exact track the low will
take, and how strong is its central pressure. That said, the
general consensus is for a strong storm to move into the region.
This system will usher a very warm and moist air into the region,
as it has a strong tropical feed.

Temperatures at 850 mb (roughly4400 feet) increase to as much as
+6 degrees Celsius in some locations. Meanwhile, colder air
entrenched at the surface will be reinforced by a northeast wind.
The question remains how far north does the surface warm front,
and 850 mb elevated warm front, make it north. The elevated front
will delineate which areas immediately along and to its south see
a period of freezing rain or sleet, and for what duration.
Locations south of the surface front will warm above freezing,
with all precipitation switching over to rain.

To add to the mix, the numerical models are inherently too fast
in dislodging cold air masses like this, which affects the
precipitation type and duration. Given that there's still a solid
24 hours or more for these details to get worked out, felt it was
more of a prudent move to hoist a winter storm watch for now,
versus going straight to advisories or warnings. In general, the
Kuskokwim Delta will see a potential for heavy snow for the entire
delta, with blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions a
possibility west of the Kilbuck Mountains. Further south and
generally west of a King Salmon to Port Alsworth line, freezing
rain and ice accumulations will be more of a concern, as the depth
of warm air here will be greater.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Tuesday evening)

A rapidly strengthening storm, of sub 960 mb strength, moving
from the North Pacific into the Bristol Bay region will bring
storm force winds to the waters south of the Alaska Peninsula,
where seas will push or exceed 30 feet. North of the peninsula and
across much of the Bering and surrounding areas, widespread gale
force winds are expected. The storm will also bring precipitation
to much of the area, some of which will be heavy at time.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the extended period marine forecast on Wednesday, there
will be a weakening gale force low moving inland across Southwest
Alaska as it exits the Bering Sea, with the associated near gale
force front moving across the Gulf of Alaska. Attention turns to a
second low which will move into the Aleutians Wednesday night and
Thursday. There still is lower confidence with the strength and
track of this low, but the likelihood is increasing that this low
will reach at least gale force, and possibly low end storm force,
as it rapidly tracks east into the eastern Bering Sea, and then
the coast of Southwest Alaska by Thursday. Expect the highest wind
and seas across Bristol Bay and along/south of the eastern
Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. The associated gale force
front will move into the Gulf of Alaska Thursday with southwest
flow lasting over the Gulf through Friday. Expect a period of
quieter weather heading into the weekend as the storm track
briefly subsides over the Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Beginning the extended forecast period Wednesday evening, The
North Pacific storm track will be unleashing its fury across
Southern Alaska as another strong low and warm front will be
plowing through the Southern Mainland. Expect warmer than average
temps to be in place along with inland rain/snow and coastal rain,
although the heaviest rain will be shifting east into the Yukon.
Attention very quickly turns to the very next storm which will
quickly amplify along the NPAC jet stream and move across the
Aleutian Chain into Southern Alaska. While uncertainty still
exists, this low will likely bottom out sub-960 hpa, and will make
landfall across SOuthwest Alaska Thursday morning, then quickly
move into Southcentral later in the afternoon. This low looks
rather warm, but given the challenges of local microclimates,
expect another rainbow (myriad) of precipitation types ranging
from rain, to rain/snow mix, to possible freezing precipitation
for inland areas. However, most inland locales near the coast will
be rather warm, so most areas will likely just be rain during the
onset.

The upper level trough gradually moves east Friday and Saturday,
so temperatures will gradually cool aloft again, although showers
and clouds will still be in place, so a gradual changeover back to
snow or rain/snow showers will occur. Thereafter, a lot of
uncertainty develops, but the latest ECMWF/GFS are depicting the
chance for subtle basal shortwave troughs to undercut the larger
trough Sat/Sun, which would be a favorable pattern for a return to
accumulating snow threats across parts of the Southern Mainland,
but at this juncture, that is effectively fairy-tale land in the
world of atmospheric modeling.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm 155. Gales 130 138 139 150 160 170-181 185 352 411-414.
         Heavy freezing spray 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA