Small Craft Advisory 920, NWS Anchorage, AK

393 
FZAK52 PAFC 031628 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040415-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low over St Matthew Island moves to Bristol Bay at 1010
mb Tue afternoon. A 1003 mb low 187 nm south of Dutch Harbor Tue 
morning moves to 588 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor at 1008 mb Tue 
night.

$$

PKZ150-040415-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040415-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming
variable 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 25 kt
in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040415-
Bristol Bay-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the
evening. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040415-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, NW wind 15 kt becoming
SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040415-
Unalaska Bay-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the 
afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas  15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040415-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040415-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040415-
Adak to Kiska-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21  ft. Rain. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040415-
Kiska to Attu-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt in the morning increasing to 50 kt. Seas
16 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040415-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
728 AM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

531 
FZAK52 PAFC 040030
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041315-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front pushes over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula by
Wed night. A 982 mb Kamchatka low extends a front across the 
Aleutians and Bering through Thu afternoon. A 990 mb low forms on
the front 345 nm West of St Matthew Island and moves along the 
front over Hooper Bay at 1000 mb by Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-041315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 15
kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 25 kt
in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except SW 25 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041315-
Bristol Bay-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041315-
Unalaska Bay-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041315-
Adak to Kiska-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft
in the afternoon. Pacific side, seas 23 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side...18 ft Pacific
side.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041315-
Kiska to Attu-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 3 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft..
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
Snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKST Mon Dec 2 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked low is centered over Prince William Sound
and the northern Gulf, with a plethora of weak upper level waves
rotating around Southcentral. Arctic air is filtering into
Southcentral from the north and west. Light snow is widespread
across the region, locally heavier ahead of short-waves. Strong
surface pressure gradients between the Gulf low and a surface
high over Bristol Bay combined with cold air advection is leading
to strong winds across the western Gulf and Kodiak Island, with
observations indicating Gale to Storm force winds. There are
likely Hurricane force wind gusts from Kamishak Bay to the Barren
Islands, areas which typically experience the strongest winds in
this pattern. The cold air advection is weakening with time, so
winds should begin to diminish by late this afternoon.

Out west, a weak vertically stacked low is drifting eastward
across the northern Bering Sea, with an upper level short-wave
trough and surface cold front extending southward down to the
central Aleutians. This is producing a showery regime across the
central Bering Sea. Further south, a strengthening low is passing
just south of the central Aleutians, with the strongest winds and
heaviest precipitation all south of the Aleutian chain. The
airmass feeding into the back side of this system is quite cold,
with 850 temperatures of -8 degrees or colder. Thus, precipitation
from Adak eastward to Atka is falling primarily as snow.

Meanwhile, high pressure is building over Southwest Alaska. Aside
from areas of fog, skies are clear and temperatures are seasonably
cold (in the single digits and teens).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are on good agreement with large scale features over the
next few days and forecast confidence is generally above normal.
The primary forecast challenge for Southcentral Alaska will be for
aviation interests, with areas of stratus and fog likely as snow
diminishes tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Ceiling and visibility will both be quite the challenge,
with periods of snow expected through early Tuesday morning. In
between areas of snow and, once it tapers off, stratus is likely.
Will largely make use of satellite and radar trends for the
beginning of the TAF. Confidence will drop significantly beyond
the first 3 to 6 hours. For the most part would expect MVFR or IFR
conditions to prevail, with improving conditions through the day
Tuesday as drier air filters in from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tuesday
night through Thursday)...

Broad low pressure continues to spin over southcentral AK,
remaining nearly stationary, before it is expected to drift south
through tomorrow. The low is also decaying, with the last of the
main snow event tapering off this evening. The last of the main
push of snow is moving south over the Kenai Peninsula, so the
winter weather advisory for the western Kenai has been left to
remain in effect until 6PM this evening, when it looks that last
push will begin to taper off for the Kenai. After the last push is
done, snow showers will linger overnight for many locations in
southcentral AK, though little accumulation is expected...perhaps
a half inch for most areas.

While this low slowly exits, cold air is already filtering in on
the backside of the low. This is evident with some strong cold air
advection creating gale and storm force winds (especially through
gaps and passes) along the coast in the western Gulf of Alaska.
Other areas like Thompson Pass are also seeing strong offshore
flow. These winds will taper into tomorrow, but expect cold air
to continue to move into all areas of southcentral AK and stay in
place for the rest of the week. Substantial cooling will take
place, though it will battle cloud cover as it does. Therefore,
did slow the cooling trend and kept temperatures warmer.
Honed in on this for the lower Susitna Valley, Anchorage Bowl,
and Copper River Basin (to a lesser degree here) as stratus looks
to set up, preventing temperatures from bottoming out. From a
meteorological standpoint, it will be interesting to see how this
plays out as the week progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Conditions across southwest Alaska remain fairly steady over the
next 48 hours. With light winds and ridging building in, patchy
fog will be a concern for southwest Alaska in mostly the coastal
areas. Tuesday looks to be quiet as high pressure remains in
place. Winds and precipitation chances pickup later Wednesday
evening ahead of the frontal boundary approaching in the Bering.
The front will then kick off day 3 with some precipitation and
gusty winds as it reaches the coast Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A stacked low in the northern Bering tracks southward along a
substantial ridge in the north Pacific Monday evening. The showery
conditions in the cold air on the backside of this low will
persist through Monday night as a frontal boundary pushes south
on the northeast side of the ridge across the Pribilof Islands,
clearing the Aleutians by Tuesday night. Ridging keeps conditions
in the eastern Bering quiet through Tuesday. A storm force front
enters the western Aleutians Tuesday morning and decreases to
gale force by Tuesday night as it moves into the eastern Bering by
Wednesday night. A mix of rain and snow will occur along the
boundary.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

The primary focus for this time frame will be a developing low
over the western Bering. Most of the models keep the center of the
low over the western Bering with only slow movement southeastward
towards the central Aleutians. Gales are expected around this
low Friday and into Saturday. Storm force winds are possible
across the western and central Aleutians as well. The leading warm
front will move into the western Gulf on Friday, which may persist
into Saturday. Gales are expected with the front as well. As the
front impacts the north Gulf coast on Saturday, a storm force
barrier jet may form through the north Gulf coast and into Prince
William Sound.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Thursday through Monday)...

On Thursday, a front looks to move into Southwest Alaska. It may
be associated with a weak low, but the models are not in agreement
about that. Warmer air will be moving in behind the front, but
since the air mass ahead of the front will be quite cold, much of
the precipitation away from the immediate coast will fall as snow.
The front will quickly weaken as it moves inland. Meanwhile, a
couple lows will be consolidating across the western and central
Aleutians on Thursday. There is understandably significant model
disagreement on how this interaction will turn out, regarding
where the primary low ends up forming. A combination of a strong
Pacific jet well to the south of the Aleutians and the tapping of
a Siberian polar air mass will act to strengthen both lows. The
foreign models favor the north and western-most low, which would
keep most of the strongest winds and impacts over the Bering. The
GFS favors a much more south and eastward track of the center of
the low, which in turn shifts the impacts east over much more land
area. Beyond that, the model disagreement is too large to glean
any meaningful insight into the forecast.

For Southcentral, the long-term will begin with very cold air over
the Copper River Basin causing strong gap winds through Valdez,
the Matanuska Valley, and the Copper River Delta. While there are
some differences in timing, the models agree on a warm front
moving into the area on Friday. By this point it will be slow
moving, so it could result in a return to warmer temperatures, but
also unsettled/precipitation likely weather for the entire
weekend. There are large differences in how much precipitation and
what form it will be in, but it seems likely that there will be
coastal rain, and inland snow or mixed precipitation, along with
areas of strong winds. Thus, the cold snap will be just that,
short-lived.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 121.
MARINE...Gale 120 132 137 172-177 185.
         Storm 130 131 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LB/KH
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1019 PM AKST MON DEC 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     SNOW             12 WSW MENDELTNA        61.99N 146.77W
12/02/2019  E6.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING.

0501 PM     SNOW             1 NNW MEADOW LAKES      61.64N 149.62W
12/02/2019  M4.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            OFF PITTMAN.

0355 PM     SNOW             15 NNW MENDELTNA        62.28N 146.55W
12/02/2019  E4.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0643 PM     SNOW             STERLING                60.54N 150.76W
12/02/2019  E8.0 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   PUBLIC

0639 PM     SNOW             2 NW SOLDOTNA           60.50N 151.10W
12/02/2019  M14.0 INCH       KENAI PENINSULA    AK   PUBLIC

0632 PM     SNOW             HOMER 8 NW              59.67N 151.59W
12/02/2019  M4.0 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            7 INCH SNOW DEPTH ON THE GROUND.

0631 PM     SNOW             3 WNW SOLDOTNA          60.50N 151.16W
12/02/2019  E8.0 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   PUBLIC

0340 PM     SNOW             2 NW SOLDOTNA           60.50N 151.10W
12/02/2019  M9.3 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL IS 12.5 INCHES WHEN INCLUDING
            THE SUNDAY MORNING BURST OF SNOW.

1000 PM     SNOW             21 NNW HOPE             61.16N 149.94W
12/02/2019  E5.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING.

0748 PM     SNOW             2 NE EAGLE RIVER        61.35N 149.53W
12/02/2019  E4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            UPPER FIRE LAKE AREA.

0743 PM     SNOW             7 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.28N 149.39W
12/02/2019  E3.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            MILE 7 OF EAGLE RIVER RD.

0700 PM     SNOW             8 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.11N 149.82W
12/02/2019  M6.3 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HUFFMAN AND ELMORE RD. AREA.

0641 PM     SNOW             5 SE ANCHORAGE          61.18N 149.74W
12/02/2019  E4.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            TUDOR AND MULDOON AREA AS OF 4:10 PM.

0636 PM     SNOW             5 S ANCHORAGE           61.14N 149.85W
12/02/2019  E6.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            ABBOT LOOP AREA.

0626 PM     SNOW             2 E ANCHORAAGE          61.22N 149.81W
12/02/2019  E6.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            8TH AND BRAGAW ST.

0624 PM     SNOW             GIRDWOOD                60.96N 149.12W
12/02/2019  E2.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

0507 PM     SNOW             6 SSW ANCHORAGE         61.14N 149.95W
12/02/2019  E4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            JEWEL LAKE AND DIAMOND.

0504 PM     SNOW             5 SE ANCHORAGE          61.19N 149.73W
12/02/2019  M5.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            MULDOON AND 36TH.

0457 PM     SNOW             5 E ANCHORAGE           61.21N 149.81W
12/02/2019  E6.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

0457 PM     SNOW             1 N ANCHORAGE           61.23N 149.87W
12/02/2019  E2.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            GOVERNMENT HILL.

0455 PM     SNOW             2.8 SW ANCHORAGE        61.20N 149.95W
12/02/2019  E2.3 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            MILKEY WAY AND WISCONSIN AREA.

&&