Hurricane Force Wind Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

611 
FZAK62 PAFC 212354
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221415-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 957 mb low at 53N 180W Sat afternoon will move to 56N 170W Sun
afternoon. The low then moves over Bristol Bay at 970 mb Mon
afternoon. A second 992 mb North Pacific Low at 50N 180W Sun
afternoon will move to 54N 165W Sun night. This low will then
become absorbed into the low over Bristol Bay Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt becoming N 50 to 65 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 85 kt after midnight. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.SUN...NW wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and widespread
rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32 ft after midnight.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 38 ft subsiding to 24
to 28 ft after midnight. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
254 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

958 
FZAK62 PAFC 221204
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-230145-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low at 55N 176W Sun morning will move to 56N 170W Sun 
afternoon. The low then moves over Bristol Bay at 970 mb Mon 
afternoon. A second 992 mb North Pacific Low at 50N 177W Sun 
afternoon will move to 51N 174W Sun night. This low will then 
become absorbed into the low over Bristol Bay Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 to 65 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 26 to 41 ft. Rain 
showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 38 ft subsiding to 24 to
28 ft after midnight.  and rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
304 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Rain showers with snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

824 
FZAK62 PAFC 230021
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-231400-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 56N 168W Sun afternoon moves to 58N 157W at 976 
mb Mon afternoon. A 989 mb low at 46N 179E Mon afternoon moves to
51N 169W at 973 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...W wind 30 to 45 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-231400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Arctic air continues to drain southward across the forecast area
this afternoon; however, the core of the coldest air remains
locked north of the Alaska Range. Temperatures across the region
range from -20F in Paxson and Sleetmute to the upper 20s to mid
30s across the immediate coast and Aleutian Chain. A tight
pressure gradient between the interior ridge and the persistent
trough over the Gulf continues to produce gusty northerly outflow
winds through the passes and along the coast. Wind gusts through
Thompson pass have been consistently near 45 mph today with gale-
force winds through Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay, and the
Valdez Narrows.

Out west, a decaying occluded front is producing a band of light
snow from the Y-K Delta south to Bristol Bay. Winds of up to 25
mph have reduced the visibility to less than 1 mile at times
through the morning and afternoon hours around the Kuskokwim
Delta, including Bethel. Some of the higher cloud cover from this
front is also beginning to push over the Alaska Range and filter
over the western half of Southcentral.

Farther west, gusty northwesterly winds and scattered showers
also continue along the southern AKPEN and eastern Aleutians. The
main weather feature, however, is an area of low pressure
southwest of Shemya. This system is deepening rapidly as it
tracks northeast toward the Chain. Clouds associated with its warm
front are approaching the western Aleutians this afternoon. This
feature has plenty of upper-level support, as it is situated in
the left exit region of a 120 kt jet streak and ahead of a
digging and deepening 500 mb trough.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement through Monday. After
that, guidance diverges on the evolution of a Bristol Bay low as
it weakens and moves inland. The movement of this low will have
subtle differences in impacts downstream across Southcentral.
However, even with the noted differences, the GFS ensemble members
continue to cluster well together, trending toward the EC and
away from its own deterministic GFS run. This also means that
sensible weather impacts are not wildly varied between models.
Moving into next week, the GFS ensemble and EC solutions both
indicate a major pattern change toward more active weather across
the Southern Mainland beginning with the initial low moving across
the Bering this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are likely to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Southcentral will continue with an offshore flow pattern, with
dry conditions across much of the region through Saturday. The
exception is the southern Copper River Basin, which could see
snow showers moving in from the northeast Gulf coast as an upper
level trough moves through the area. Another round of cold air
advection will bring strong gap winds to the western Gulf
beginning this evening through Saturday.

The next big pattern change enters the southern Gulf Saturday
night into Sunday morning when a frontal system brings widespread
precipitation and strong winds. Kodiak will see snow initially as
the front lifts north over the island by late Sunday morning,
which will transition to rain as temperatures warm up. This
frontal system will eventually reach Southcentral Alaska by Sunday
afternoon, bringing snowfall to the Kenai Peninsula and coastal
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A weakening front will continue to spread some snow showers
across Southwest this evening. Showers will eventually taper
overnight and northwesterly flow will allow cold air to settle in
across the area for Saturday morning. Generally clear conditions
are expected for Saturday ahead of a strong front approaching the
area by Sunday. Strong southeasterly winds will pick up across the
southern Alaska Peninsula beginning Sunday morning. Snowfall is
also expected across the Alaska Peninsula and interior areas of
Bristol Bay with this front, which when combined with the winds,
may produce blowing snow and possibly low visibility. As the low
center tracks eastward toward Bristol Bay late Sunday into early
Monday, there is the possibility for elevated water levels along
the Alaska Peninsula coast. While confidence on this surge
potential is low right now, we will continue to monitor this
possibility. By Monday, the low center moves eastward and
eventually inland. With a significant amount of cold air on the
backside of the low, enhanced northerly flow is expected along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast late Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Active weather continues across the Bering as a strong low tracks
across the area through the weekend. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for Adak and Atka late Saturday through Sunday afternoon
and a High Wind Watch has been issued for the eastern Aleutians
for Sunday, including Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan.

As the leading front arrives over the western Aleutians Saturday
morning, expect strong southeasterly flow and rain to progress
eastward. As the low center moves into the Bering by Saturday
afternoon, cold air will begin to wrap around the backside of the
low, allowing for strong winds and snow to spread across the
Aleutians late Sunday. The strongest winds will be on the backside
of the low, and hurricane force winds are expected. As the low
tracks eastward, strong winds on the south side of the low may
reach the central Aleutians Saturday night into early Sunday.
There are slight discrepancies in the models regarding where the
low center is at this time, and there is the possibility of the
low center shifting slightly northward which would keep the
strongest winds north of the Aleutians. Therefore, a High Wind
Watch has been issued for the eastern Aleutians for Sunday, which
includes Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan. Stay tuned to the
forecast for updates as we continue to track this low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Beginning the extended period marine forecast on Monday
afternoon, a weakening and departing gale force low in Bristol Bay
will fall apart by Tuesday morning. The Pacific storm track will
shift south of the Aleutian Chain through Thursday and move into
the Gulf of Alaska as a series of lows moves into the Gulf.
Currently the first will move into the Gulf by Tue and last
through Wednesday, possibly as a gale force low as it tracks north
to the Gulf Coast. A second low, possibly stronger, moves in
sometimes Wednesday/Wednesday night. Over the Bering, this pattern
will keep a cold, northerly or northeast flow over that area with
areas of freezing spray.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The long term will kick off Tuesday with a deep pool of cold air
over the majority of mainland Alaska. A Bering low looks to track
across the northern Gulf Tuesday along the boundary of cold arctic
air spilling out of the state. Model guidance suggests a winter
precipitation event along the southern coast as the low moves
east. Another low in the Western Aleutians Tuesday is expected to
track across the Aleutian chain and into the northern Gulf on
Wednesday through Thursday, adding reinforcements with another
round of winter precipitation. Guidance is mixed on the exact
track of these two storms, but model guidance suggests that we
will be covered in cold air and odds for some wintry weather are
strong.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187.
 High Wind Watch 185.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 177 178.
 Storm Warning 173>176.
 Gale Warning 121 130>132 138 155 160 165 170>172 179>181 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 129.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA/LB