Gale Warning 682, NWS Anchorage, AK

872 
FZAK61 PAFC 220022
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-221330-
322 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front over the central Gulf Sat afternoon will move into the
eastern Gulf Sat night. A 982 mb low over northern Kodiak will
move over Prince William Sound Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-221330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
322 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-221330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
322 PM AKST Sat Dec 21 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.

$$

772 
FZAK61 PAFC 221202
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-230145-
302 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 982 mb low over northern Kodiak will move over Prince William 
Sound Mon morning. A second low will move from Bristol Bay to 
Kodiak at 974mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ351-230145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
302 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ352-230145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
302 AM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.

$$

862 
FZAK61 PAFC 230027
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-231330-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 984 mb low at 58N 152W Sun afternoon moves to 60N 147W at 981 mb
Mon morning and dissipates. A 981 mb low at 58N 155W Mon night
moves to 61N 149W at 989 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-231330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-231330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 16 to
24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

797 
FZAK61 PAFC 231134
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-240145-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 980 mb low at 59N 149W this morning stalls and gets absorbed by
the next low.  Tonight a 976 mb low near Kodiak moves to 59N 
149W at 983 mb Tue afternoon. The low moves into Prince William
Sound Tue night.

$$

PKZ351-240145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-240145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
234 AM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

078 
FZAK61 PAFC 240004
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 PM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-241415-
304 PM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 978 mb low at 57N 156W moves through Prince William Sound by Wed
morning. Its front pushes into the North Gulf Coast with several
973 mb low centers moving along the front as it trails across the
Gulf through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-241415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
304 PM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-241415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
304 PM AKST Mon Dec 23 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Arctic air continues to drain southward across the forecast area
this afternoon; however, the core of the coldest air remains
locked north of the Alaska Range. Temperatures across the region
range from -20F in Paxson and Sleetmute to the upper 20s to mid
30s across the immediate coast and Aleutian Chain. A tight
pressure gradient between the interior ridge and the persistent
trough over the Gulf continues to produce gusty northerly outflow
winds through the passes and along the coast. Wind gusts through
Thompson pass have been consistently near 45 mph today with gale-
force winds through Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay, and the
Valdez Narrows.

Out west, a decaying occluded front is producing a band of light
snow from the Y-K Delta south to Bristol Bay. Winds of up to 25
mph have reduced the visibility to less than 1 mile at times
through the morning and afternoon hours around the Kuskokwim
Delta, including Bethel. Some of the higher cloud cover from this
front is also beginning to push over the Alaska Range and filter
over the western half of Southcentral.

Farther west, gusty northwesterly winds and scattered showers
also continue along the southern AKPEN and eastern Aleutians. The
main weather feature, however, is an area of low pressure
southwest of Shemya. This system is deepening rapidly as it
tracks northeast toward the Chain. Clouds associated with its warm
front are approaching the western Aleutians this afternoon. This
feature has plenty of upper-level support, as it is situated in
the left exit region of a 120 kt jet streak and ahead of a
digging and deepening 500 mb trough.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement through Monday. After
that, guidance diverges on the evolution of a Bristol Bay low as
it weakens and moves inland. The movement of this low will have
subtle differences in impacts downstream across Southcentral.
However, even with the noted differences, the GFS ensemble members
continue to cluster well together, trending toward the EC and
away from its own deterministic GFS run. This also means that
sensible weather impacts are not wildly varied between models.
Moving into next week, the GFS ensemble and EC solutions both
indicate a major pattern change toward more active weather across
the Southern Mainland beginning with the initial low moving across
the Bering this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are likely to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Southcentral will continue with an offshore flow pattern, with
dry conditions across much of the region through Saturday. The
exception is the southern Copper River Basin, which could see
snow showers moving in from the northeast Gulf coast as an upper
level trough moves through the area. Another round of cold air
advection will bring strong gap winds to the western Gulf
beginning this evening through Saturday.

The next big pattern change enters the southern Gulf Saturday
night into Sunday morning when a frontal system brings widespread
precipitation and strong winds. Kodiak will see snow initially as
the front lifts north over the island by late Sunday morning,
which will transition to rain as temperatures warm up. This
frontal system will eventually reach Southcentral Alaska by Sunday
afternoon, bringing snowfall to the Kenai Peninsula and coastal
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A weakening front will continue to spread some snow showers
across Southwest this evening. Showers will eventually taper
overnight and northwesterly flow will allow cold air to settle in
across the area for Saturday morning. Generally clear conditions
are expected for Saturday ahead of a strong front approaching the
area by Sunday. Strong southeasterly winds will pick up across the
southern Alaska Peninsula beginning Sunday morning. Snowfall is
also expected across the Alaska Peninsula and interior areas of
Bristol Bay with this front, which when combined with the winds,
may produce blowing snow and possibly low visibility. As the low
center tracks eastward toward Bristol Bay late Sunday into early
Monday, there is the possibility for elevated water levels along
the Alaska Peninsula coast. While confidence on this surge
potential is low right now, we will continue to monitor this
possibility. By Monday, the low center moves eastward and
eventually inland. With a significant amount of cold air on the
backside of the low, enhanced northerly flow is expected along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast late Monday into early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Active weather continues across the Bering as a strong low tracks
across the area through the weekend. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for Adak and Atka late Saturday through Sunday afternoon
and a High Wind Watch has been issued for the eastern Aleutians
for Sunday, including Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan.

As the leading front arrives over the western Aleutians Saturday
morning, expect strong southeasterly flow and rain to progress
eastward. As the low center moves into the Bering by Saturday
afternoon, cold air will begin to wrap around the backside of the
low, allowing for strong winds and snow to spread across the
Aleutians late Sunday. The strongest winds will be on the backside
of the low, and hurricane force winds are expected. As the low
tracks eastward, strong winds on the south side of the low may
reach the central Aleutians Saturday night into early Sunday.
There are slight discrepancies in the models regarding where the
low center is at this time, and there is the possibility of the
low center shifting slightly northward which would keep the
strongest winds north of the Aleutians. Therefore, a High Wind
Watch has been issued for the eastern Aleutians for Sunday, which
includes Nikolski, Unalaska, and Akutan. Stay tuned to the
forecast for updates as we continue to track this low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Beginning the extended period marine forecast on Monday
afternoon, a weakening and departing gale force low in Bristol Bay
will fall apart by Tuesday morning. The Pacific storm track will
shift south of the Aleutian Chain through Thursday and move into
the Gulf of Alaska as a series of lows moves into the Gulf.
Currently the first will move into the Gulf by Tue and last
through Wednesday, possibly as a gale force low as it tracks north
to the Gulf Coast. A second low, possibly stronger, moves in
sometimes Wednesday/Wednesday night. Over the Bering, this pattern
will keep a cold, northerly or northeast flow over that area with
areas of freezing spray.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The long term will kick off Tuesday with a deep pool of cold air
over the majority of mainland Alaska. A Bering low looks to track
across the northern Gulf Tuesday along the boundary of cold arctic
air spilling out of the state. Model guidance suggests a winter
precipitation event along the southern coast as the low moves
east. Another low in the Western Aleutians Tuesday is expected to
track across the Aleutian chain and into the northern Gulf on
Wednesday through Thursday, adding reinforcements with another
round of winter precipitation. Guidance is mixed on the exact
track of these two storms, but model guidance suggests that we
will be covered in cold air and odds for some wintry weather are
strong.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187.
 High Wind Watch 185.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 177 178.
 Storm Warning 173>176.
 Gale Warning 121 130>132 138 155 160 165 170>172 179>181 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 129.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA/LB