Hurricane Force Wind Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

652 
FZAK62 PAFC 081210
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090200-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A decaying front lingers from Western Alaska across the Alaska
Peninsula through Sat morning. A 960 mb low at 50N 164E moves to 
57N 170E at 951 mb then drives into the Russian Far East at 990 
mb for Sat morning. Its front sweeps the Aleutians and Bering by 
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 50 to 65 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 22 to 37 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 29 to 44 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 to 34 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 27 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 ft building to 14 to 22 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 22 to 34 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
310 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.

$$

199 
FZAK62 PAFC 090026
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front moves over the western Aleutians and Bering 
associated with a 952 mb low at 56N 170E Fri afternoon. The front
moves east over the central Bering by Sat afternoon and then over
the Alaska Peninsula by Sun afternoon. A new front approaches the
western Aleutians by Sun afternoon associated with a 962 mb low 
at 47N 168E. 

$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 29 to 44 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Freezing
spray after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 21 to 34 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 35 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

201 
FZAK62 PAFC 091214
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100145-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A strong front sweeps across the Aleutians and Bering into 
Western Alaska for Mon morning. A 969 mb low at 44N 163E Sun 
morning moves to 55N 176E at 959 mb by Mon morning. Its front 
pushes over the Aleutians through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKST Thu Feb 7 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge continues to amplify across the North Pacific and the
mainland with abundant moisture streaming up between this feature
and a low over the western Bering. A similar pattern is reflected
at the surface with gusty winds surrounding the Bering low. A
front draped across the eastern Bering to the west coastal
locations is bringing continuous rain along the Kuskokwim Delta.
A warm maritime air mass has pushed across the Southwest with
temperatures in the mid 30 to near 40 degrees, meanwhile
Southcentral remains at or below freezing except for the southern
tip of the Kenai.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are generally in good agreement through the end of the week
keeping the most active weather pattern over the Bering and
Southwest mainland. There are some differences on how quickly the
ridge breaks down this weekend; however, kept Southcentral and the
Gulf in a drier pattern through Saturday as models agree with the
ridge axis over the Gulf. All models are showing a quick break
down of the ridge pattern heading into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Low stratus and fog are expected to improve later this
afternoon with VFR for tonight. There is still some uncertainty on
this improvement lasting through tonight as moisture advects
north, so kept a minimal low level deck and will re-evaluate this
on the next TAF package. Winds will generally be light through
early Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will remain over Southcentral through Friday night.
Considerable moisture is trapped underneath this ridge, with
plenty of low stratus and some patchy fog. With the upper level
ridge axis near the Canadian border, there are also some high
clouds over the area. Most areas will not see any precipitation
for the next couple of days. The main exception is the Susitna
Valley, where some weak systems "topping" the ridge bring some
chances of snow. There is also a chance for some precipitation
this morning over the western Kenai Peninsula, as a weak system to
the west of the area moves north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Thursday
through Saturday Night)...

An active weather pattern remains over southwest Alaska as the
region sits at the transition between the long wave trough axis
over the Bering and the ridge axis over the Gulf. This is
producing a long southwesterly fetch from the sub-tropical Pacific
north across the AKPEN and YK-Delta and bringing with it plenty of
moisture (PWAT of 0.59" at PABE at the 12z sounding) and warmer
air (current temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s for all but far
interior sections). A primarily rain event will continue today for
locations along the coast and across the Lower Kuskokwim Delta as
a surface low over the eastern Bering pushes a warm front north
of the region. Southerly winds will also remain gusty as a strong
low-level jet (62kts at 925mb over Bethel at 12z) continues to
race over the region. A trailing cold front then moves in tonight
with enough cold air behind it to change the rain back to snow,
especially for areas north of Dillingham. Only minor accumulations
are expected with this system; however, a brief period of
moderate to heavy snow cannot be ruled out for places like Bethel
as the front pushes through given the abundance of moisture and
strong upper-level dynamics.

Conditions then slowly improve for all but the AKPEN and Bristol
Bay regions on Friday as the front continues east and stalls
along the Alaska and Aleutians Ranges. A ridge settling in over
the YK Delta will bring clear and drier conditions while areas
south and east remain warmer and wet (with snow for the far
interior and higher elevations).

The next frontal system then moves toward the region for Saturday
bringing another surge of warm, moist air on strong southerly
winds. Much like the current system, a few sheltered valley
locations where colder air is trapped at the surface may see a
brief period of snow at the onset of precipitation. However, as
warmer air quickly moves in, this will become another primarily
rain event with temperatures again climbing into the mid 30s to
mid 40s. As the front moves across the region Saturday night,
colder air behind it will again change the rain back to snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3;
Thursday through Saturday Night)...

A trough digging through the Bering continues to bring warmer air,
rain, and gusty southerly winds to the eastern Aleutians. The
surface low associated with the upper-level trough will move north
today with its trailing cold front sliding east over the AKPEN,
ending the precipitation and gusty winds for the eastern half of
the chain. A compact gale-force low will skirt the western and
central Aleutians today, but weaken as it slides south of the
eastern Aleutians. Attention then shifts west to a rapidly
deepening low approaching the ALeutians west of Shemya tonight.
This system will bring a surge of warm air across the Aleutians
along with widespread storm-force winds and even hurricane-force
winds for the western-most zones Friday. This system lifts quickly
into the northern Bering as a second area of storm-force
southerly winds move across the central Bering along its occluded
front.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning Friday, there is generally good confidence that a ~970
mb low will track just to the west of Attu bringing a wide swath
of southwesterly gale force winds to the Bering/Aleutians west of
the Pribilofs through Friday night. There is also the chance for
some areas of storm force winds to develop over the western
Aleutians/Bering by Friday evening, though these are not expected
to be long lived. Winds and waves are expected to subside some as
the low pushes north by Saturday morning, with generally high
confidence that winds further diminish Saturday night into Sunday
as ridging temporarily builds in over the western Bering.
Confidence is increasing regarding a strong ~960 mb low
approaching the western Aleutians from the southwest by Sunday
afternoon. The initial front associated with this low is likely to
produce gale force winds from the southeast across most of the
Bering. There is also increasing probability that a swath of storm
force winds will push through the western Bering/Aleutians by
Sunday night.

Over the Gulf of Alaska, high pressure will generally lead to
tranquil conditions through Saturday. By Sunday, a low is expected
to approach the western Gulf, though there is still a fair amount
of disagreement regarding this system. Generally expect winds and
waves to increase over the western Gulf through the day on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning Friday, an upper level ridge will dominate the long wave
pattern over most of the Gulf of Alaska and the eastern mainland.
An upper trough will be located over the western Bering leading to
an active storm track across the western half of the area. Strong
southerly flow in between the ridge and trough will pump warm and
moist air north into the southern mainland, with precipitation,
mostly as rain, expected over the southwest mainland Friday and
Saturday. The forecast challenge will be determining how far east
the ridge axis pushes and weakens over the weekend. The GFS keeps
the ridge a bit further east and flattens it, allowing the storm
track from the Bering to push further east into Southcentral,
while the EC amplifies the ridge, leading to more of a blocking
pattern. Regardless, both solutions show a system pushing a front
into the western Gulf by Sunday, bringing increasing chances of
precipitation to Southcentral, especially along the coast.

By Sunday, a strong cold front looks to push east across the
Bering and mainland nudging the upper ridge to the east. This
will bring precipitation across most the southern mainland with
colder air pushing in behind the front through Monday morning. An
even stronger low will push east across the Bering on Monday
bringing a wide swath of precipitation across the mainland through
Tuesday with a surge of warmer air ahead of the system, thus
precipitation types will be challenging.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 155 160 165 175 176 180 185.
         Storms 177 411 412 413.
         Hurricane Force 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP