Gale Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

753 
FZAK62 PAFC 071258
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080145-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front associated with a 954 mb low at 57N 166E Mon afternoon 
will extend over the Alaska Peninsula by Tue afternoon. A second 
front associated with a 991 mb low at 51N 177W Tue afternoon will 
move across the central Aleutians and Bering through by Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.  and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

996 
FZAK62 PAFC 080029
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081400-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a 963 mb low reaches the central Bering
Tue afternoon and then retreats westward exiting the Bering to the
northwest Wed morning. A second front approaches the western
Aleutians Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

103 
FZAK62 PAFC 081253
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090215-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the central Bering associated with a 970 mb low Tue 
morning moves into the northern Bering through Wed morning. A 
second front approaches the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. The
associated 941 mb low moves to 46N 174E by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

200 
FZAK62 PAFC 090046
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A front over the central Bering 
associated with a 978 mb Kamchatka low Tue afternoon weakens and 
moves into the northwest Bering through Wed afternoon. A 940 mb low 
moves to 48N 178E Thu afternoon while its associated front reaches 
the central Bering.

$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 36 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a weakening surface low north of Attu Island that is
vertically stacked and has the remnants of a decaying occlusion
wrapped into it. There is a mature low south of Unalaska and a
second mature low that is rapidly intensifying southwest of Attu
Island. In the latest ASCAT/advanced scatterometer image there is
a large area of high pressure at the surface south of the AKPEN
and Kodiak. The jet stream is south of 50N. There are two distinct
jet cores supporting the aforementioned matures cyclones. The
radars at King Salmon and Kenai are barren and both in clear air
mode. Meanwhile, the Middleton Island and Bethel radars have a few
light returns on them but nothing ominous or sinister. On the
GOES Nighttime Microphysics and the AVHRR (which are both
satellite products) fog and low clouds have been detected again
over portions of Southcentral, more specifically Anchorage,
Wasilla and Hope. The satellite has also pinged into areas of
freezing fog and low stratus in the Copper River Basin. There is a
another area of fog in Southwest Alaska over portions of the
Kuskokwim River north and east of Aniak. The coldest region again
for the southern tier of Alaska remains the Copper River Basin
where temperatures are ranging from the negative teens to negative
twenties. However, at 4 AM this morning the METAR at Talkeetna
was -21F which was a function of pure radiational cooling.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the major synoptic features
through Tuesday. The caveat being the decaying low in the extreme
Western Bering. But the model consensus with the train of cyclones
south of 50N in the short term forecast period looks good. Weather
models in high latitude environments in general don't handle
microscale features such as localized fog very well. Which is the
case right now for the fog and stratus in the Anchorage Metro
Area. This is the portion of the forecast is where the level of
uncertainty is bumped up a skosh.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The nighttime microphysics images from GOES have detected
an area of fog/low stratus over Knik Arm, Turnagain Arm and over
portions of the Cook Inlet. The metars near the Knik Arm suggest
that the base of that batch of stratus is at 200 feet. The
stratus over Cook Inlet ranges from cigs of 600 to 1000 feet.
There has not been a lot of mixing and the forecast for the
ensuing 30 hr period still looks pretty stagnant in the boundary
layer. The best chance for VFR flight conditions at PANC will be
this afternoon but its not a guarantee. The fog/stratus situation
is actively being monitored. Amendments will be made as required.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The same forecast issues from the past two days will remain again
today across Southcentral...areas of fog around Cook Inlet and
the Copper River Basin and winds through channeled terrain.
The fog and low stratus does look to mostly remain again today
and through tonight in these areas. This has led to the low
temperatures tonight being adjusted upward some as skies should
not clear out. Tonight, a short wave will move over Kodiak Island
and then progress over the Cook Inlet area for Monday and Monday
night. While this is not a strong short wave it will be enough to
increase mid and higher level clouds which may help break up the
persistent fog and stratus over Cook Inlet.

The trough along the northern Gulf of Alaska coastline has helped
increase some of the outflow winds from Seward through the Prince
William Sound area. These winds and colder temperatures have
decreased the wind chill in Thompson Pass to around 45 below zero
this morning. Since the temperatures will continue and winds
will persist near those levels through Monday morning, a wind
chill advisory has been issued for that area through Monday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Sunday
through Tuesday)...
The first of two fronts forecasted to impact southwest Alaska is
currently coming ashore from the Bering Sea. It is producing some
light snow and windy conditions along the coast as it does so.
This is reducing visibility to a mile or so, but those conditions
are localized. Additionally, the low stratus that has been in
place is slow to move out of inland areas of the southwest. It is
clearly evident on the nighttime microphysics satellite. As the
front pushes inland, it should clear out the remaining stratus.

After this front pushes through, it will pretty much be a repeat
of the setup we have had the past couple of days. A brief break
in the weather will occur later today with the strong possibility
of stratus/fog setting up again over the area. Being that stratus
has been slow to dissipate and there is a broad deck of it throughout
western Alaska, would not be surprised to see it return after the
front moves through. These indicators show conditions are primed
for it to redevelop. The next front will then approach the coast
tomorrow night, bringing about the same weather for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Sunday
through Tuesday)...

The low center with the first in succession of two lows is
pushing out of our forecast area in the Western Bering. Its
slowly decaying front is leaving the eastern Aleutians and moving
into southwest Alaska. Behind this low center, some cold core
cumulus is moving through the Bering and Aleutian Islands. It is
in association with cold air being entrained into the low.

The next low that will be moving through the Bering and Aleutians
is starting to appear in our forecast area on satellite imagery
and is entering the western Aleutian Islands. Storm force winds
with a few hurricane force gusts are still forecasted with this
low. However, as the previous discussion mentioned, these stronger
wind gusts will be brief so still steering away from issuing any
hazard products associated with them. The front still looks to
detach from the low center and lose its dynamic support as it
moves east. This means little change in the forecast for the area.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning Tuesday evening, conditions are expected to improve
across the Bering Sea as a storm system tracks north out of the
area while weakening. Winds and waves are likely to subside quite
a bit through Wednesday night before the next storm system
approaches from the south by Wednesday night. The storm is
expected to be quite strong with central pressures potentially
bottoming out below 950 mb, though the system is expected to
weaken as it approaches the Western/Central Aleutians and stay
south of the island chain. This would bring upper end gale force
winds to most of the Western Bering Thursday night into Friday.
Models have been fairly consistent with this storm so far,
thus confidence is above average in the track and strength.
Though, if the low takes a more northward track and maintains its
strength, winds will likely increase into the storm force
category.

Over the Gulf of Alaska, high pressure will continue to keep the
storm track to the south and west, thus expect generally good
conditions through the week. Localized higher winds may develop
out of bays and passes along the North Gulf Coast due to northerly
outflow winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The long term forecast begins Wednesday with high pressure over
most of Southcentral and a cold Arctic upper level low over the
northern mainland. This will keep cold and dry conditions with
offshore flow over Southcentral and most of Southwest AK through
the end of the week. A few shortwaves rotating around a low south
of the AKPEN and the Arctic low will bring some snow showers to
parts of southwest AK on Wednesday but should diminish by the end
of the day. The Arctic low is expected to shift south some
allowing even colder air to filter in over the southern mainland
on Thursday. At the same time, a strong North Pacific low will
move north towards the Aleutians, but should stay south of the
island chain as a strong polar high over Siberia will prevent the
system from pushing further north. Regardless, the system will
bring very wet and windy conditions to the Aleutians and spread
further east towards the AKPEN by the end of the week. Models are
now beginning to show the low complex spreading east into the Gulf
of Alaska by Friday as high pressure shifts east at the same
time. This would bring a pattern change to the southern mainland with
a return to warm and wet southerly flow as we head into the
weekend. There is still a fair amount of disagreement between
models as to how far east the North Pacific low gets, so a lot
could change between now and then. Best to keep track of the
forecast for updates through the week as the details are worked
out.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 185. Gale 414 412 170 172 173 174.
Storm 413 411 175 176 177 178 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP