Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2019

Gale Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

January 6, 2019

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Jan 6, 2019, 3:40 AM AKST. It was in force for 60 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 6, 2019, 3:40 AM AKST (12:40 UTC)
Expired
Jan 8, 2019, 3:46 PM AKST
In force
60 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

822 
FZAK62 PAFC 061240
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070130-
340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 960 mb low at 51N 171E Sun morning will move to 57N 168E at 955
mb by Mon morning. Its front will extend over the Alaska Peninsula
by Tue morning. A 991 mb low Mon afternoon at 50N 178E will move
to 56N 179E at 983 mb by Tue morning.   

$$

PKZ411-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 21 to 26 ft.  and rain showers.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
679 
FZAK62 PAFC 062329
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071315-
229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 952 mb low at 55N 169E Sun afternoon will move to 57N 165E at 
962 mb by Mon afternoon. The low weakens in place to 978 mb by 
Tue afternoon. Its front will extend over the Alaska Peninsula by 
Tue morning. A 988 mb low Mon evening at 50N 179W will move to 59N
179E at 977 mb by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Widespread snow showers and rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$
753 
FZAK62 PAFC 071258
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080145-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front associated with a 954 mb low at 57N 166E Mon afternoon 
will extend over the Alaska Peninsula by Tue afternoon. A second 
front associated with a 991 mb low at 51N 177W Tue afternoon will 
move across the central Aleutians and Bering through by Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.  and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$
996 
FZAK62 PAFC 080029
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081400-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a 963 mb low reaches the central Bering
Tue afternoon and then retreats westward exiting the Bering to the
northwest Wed morning. A second front approaches the western
Aleutians Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$
103 
FZAK62 PAFC 081253
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090215-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the central Bering associated with a 970 mb low Tue 
morning moves into the northern Bering through Wed morning. A 
second front approaches the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. The
associated 941 mb low moves to 46N 174E by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$
200 
FZAK62 PAFC 090046
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091415-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A front over the central Bering 
associated with a 978 mb Kamchatka low Tue afternoon weakens and 
moves into the northwest Bering through Wed afternoon. A 940 mb low 
moves to 48N 178E Thu afternoon while its associated front reaches 
the central Bering.

$$

PKZ411-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 36 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 5, 5:37 PM AKST, 10 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 5, 5:37 PM AKST, 10 hours 3 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
537 PM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level pattern today consists of a deep vertically
stacked low in the western Bering, a sharp upper level ridge
extending from the eastern Alaska Peninsula north along the
western mainland Alaska coast up across the Bering strait and
an upper trough shifting across the Alaska Range and into
Southcentral Alaska. A swath of strong winds to the south of the
surface low in the western Bering, which has been bringing storm
force winds to the western Aleutians this morning, is lifting
north into the southwestern Bering with gales over much of the
rest of the Bering. The associated surface front is currently
swinging east, from the eastern Aleutians over the western Alaska
Peninsula. Low stratus which covered much of Southwest Alaska this
morning is now being eroded by gradually increasing offshore flow
ahead of the approaching front. Over Southcentral, stratus and fog
persist across portions of the western Kenai, Anchorage, and
Matanuska Valley despite the passage of an upper trough.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with both the current synoptic
pattern and the next strong low tracking into the western Bering
Sunday. Model uncertainty increases Monday and Monday night with
regards to another smaller low around the 180 longitude line,
tracking north into the Bering and a surface low forming well
south of the eastern Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Though the airport has cleared out this afternoon, areas of
fog and stratus persist very close by. Thus, expect LIFR
conditions to settle back in tonight. With no substantive changes
in the flow on Sunday, fog and stratus will continue to be a
threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak shortwave trough moving across the region is spreading
clouds across the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains east into the
Copper River Basin this evening. This trough is doing little to
alter the weak low-level flow across Southcentral, however, so
expect areas of freezing fog and low stratus to remain entrenched
over the Copper River Basin and across portions of northern Cook
Inlet and Turnagain Arm through early Monday as this trough is
replaced by another weak ridge. As the trough moves east, gusty
outflow winds will again pick up in the gaps and passes along the
coast Sunday through Monday morning. Fog and low stratus remain
the biggest challenges when it comes to the temperature forecast.
But given the continued weak low-level flow and lack of dynamic
upper-level features through the weekend, high and low
temperatures through the weekend will generally mirror those
today.

The next shortwave then slides across Southcentral on Monday in
association with a developing trough or closed surface low in the
northern gulf. From here, guidance diverges on the placement and
strength of this feature; however, it looks like there is now
higher confidence in the likelihood of a developing closed low
in the northern Gulf along with scattered snow showers for the
eastern Kenai Peninsula, Chugach Mountains, possibly extending
farther east along the coast late Monday into Tuesday. If this is
the case, the shift to a southerly flow would bring an end to the
outflow winds. The southerly flow will also help scour out the
fog, mainly in and around Anchorage, and bring a slight uptick to
the temperatures, especially along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Saturday
through Monday)...

Low level fog/stratus continued to have its hold on much of YK
delta today, and is finally showing signs of dissipating as the
overhead ridge slides east and offshore flow increases. The
primary front bringing snow to the coast and areas inland is
slowing and weakening, but will still bring some snow to the
areas, with maybe a few inches from the coast through Bethel and
Dillingham into Sunday. Winds with this snow will be the biggest
hazard to areas along the coast, as visibilities will likely be
reduced to 1 to 2 miles at times as the front moves inland. Monday
will repeat what the region saw last night into today with weak
onshore flow, ridging overhead and fog/stratus potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Saturday through Monday)...

There is little change to the forecast as two areas of low
pressure will be the dominant features through Monday. The first
low sits north of Shemya and is continuing to weaken, as an
attendant front stretches across the Bering and sits between the
Pribilof Islands and the AKPEN. This front is weakening as it
transits the eastern Aleutians. Stronger winds are confined to St.
Matthew Island and areas north.

The second low will lift out of the northern Pacific and across
Attu overnight, bringing another round of storm force winds to the
western Aleutians and Bering Sea. There is potential for a brief
period of hurricane force wind gusts early sunday morning from
Kiska to Adak, but decided against any high wind watch. As the
front races east, the low that it is attached to will continue to
weaken and slide west toward the Kamchatka Peninsula and becomes
completely detached from any upper level support. The front will
work across the eastern Aleutians through Monday bringing warm
air and rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning Tuesday evening, conditions are expected to improve
across the Bering Sea as a storm system tracks north out of the
area while weakening. Winds and waves are likely to subside quite
a bit through Wednesday night before the next storm system
approaches from the south by Wednesday night. The storm is
expected to be quite strong with central pressures potentially
bottoming out below 950 mb, though the system is expected to
weaken as it approaches the Western/Central Aleutians and stay
south of the island chain. This would bring upper end gale force
winds to most of the Western Bering Thursday night into Friday.
Models have been fairly consistent with this storm so far,
thus confidence is above average in the track and strength.
Though, if the low takes a more northward track and maintains its
strength, winds will likely increase into the storm force
category.

Over the Gulf of Alaska, high pressure will continue to keep the
storm track to the south and west, thus expect generally good
conditions through the week. Localized higher winds may develop
out of bays and passes along the North Gulf Coast due to northerly
outflow winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The long term forecast begins Wednesday with high pressure over
most of Southcentral and a cold Arctic upper level low over the
northern mainland. This will keep cold and dry conditions with
offshore flow over Southcentral and most of Southwest AK through
the end of the week. A few shortwaves rotating around a low south
of the AKPEN and the Arctic low will bring some snow showers to
parts of southwest AK on Wednesday but should diminish by the end
of the day. The Arctic low is expected to shift south some allowing
even colder air to filter in over the southern mainland on Thursday.
At the same time, a strong North Pacific low will move north
towards the Aleutians, but should stay south of the island chain
as a strong polar high over Siberia will prevent the system from
pushing further north. Regardless, the system will bring very wet
and windy conditions to the Aleutians and spread further east
towards the AKPEN by the end of the week. Models are now beginning
to show the low complex spreading east into the Gulf of Alaska by
Friday as high pressure shifts east at the same time. This would
bring a pattern change to the southern mainland with a return to
warm and wet southerly flow as we head into the weekend. There is
still a fair amount of disagreement between models as to how far
east the North Pacific low gets, so a lot could change between now
and then. Best to keep track of the forecast for updates through
the week as the details are worked out.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 175 176 177 178.
		 Gale Warning 170 172 173 174 179 185.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 5, 3:03 PM AKSTBrisk Wind AdvisoryAFC61 hr
Jan 5, 3:03 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC4 days
Jan 5, 3:03 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC61 hr
Jan 5, 3:13 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC36 hr
Jan 6, 3:46 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Jan 6, 4:47 AM AKSTWind Chill AdvisoryAFC36 hr
Jan 6, 2:29 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC49 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2019Every gale warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.