Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2019
Gale Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Jan 6, 2019, 3:40 AM AKST. It was in force for 60 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 6, 2019, 3:40 AM AKST (12:40 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 8, 2019, 3:46 PM AKST
- In force
- 60 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
822 FZAK62 PAFC 061240 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-070130- 340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 960 mb low at 51N 171E Sun morning will move to 57N 168E at 955 mb by Mon morning. Its front will extend over the Alaska Peninsula by Tue morning. A 991 mb low Mon afternoon at 50N 178E will move to 56N 179E at 983 mb by Tue morning. $$ PKZ411-070130- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow and rain. .TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 21 to 26 ft. and rain showers. .MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ412-070130- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain with snow. .MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ413-070130- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...STORM WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain. .MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$ PKZ414-070130- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 340 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain showers. .MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. $$
5 follow-up statements
679 FZAK62 PAFC 062329 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-071315- 229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 952 mb low at 55N 169E Sun afternoon will move to 57N 165E at 962 mb by Mon afternoon. The low weakens in place to 978 mb by Tue afternoon. Its front will extend over the Alaska Peninsula by Tue morning. A 988 mb low Mon evening at 50N 179W will move to 59N 179E at 977 mb by Tue afternoon. $$ PKZ411-071315- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft. Snow showers. .MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft. $$ PKZ412-071315- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Widespread snow showers and rain. .MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Snow and rain showers. .MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .WED...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .FRI...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ413-071315- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Widespread rain showers. .MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. $$ PKZ414-071315- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 229 PM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers. .MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow showers. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$
753 FZAK62 PAFC 071258 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-080145- 358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front associated with a 954 mb low at 57N 166E Mon afternoon will extend over the Alaska Peninsula by Tue afternoon. A second front associated with a 991 mb low at 51N 177W Tue afternoon will move across the central Aleutians and Bering through by Wed afternoon. $$ PKZ411-080145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 .TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ412-080145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. and rain showers. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ413-080145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain showers. .TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ414-080145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 358 AM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 .TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. .FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. $$
996 FZAK62 PAFC 080029 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-081400- 329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front associated with a 963 mb low reaches the central Bering Tue afternoon and then retreats westward exiting the Bering to the northwest Wed morning. A second front approaches the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. $$ PKZ411-081400- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. .TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ412-081400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. .TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. $$ PKZ413-081400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ414-081400- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 329 PM AKST Mon Jan 7 2019 .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$
103 FZAK62 PAFC 081253 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-090215- 353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front over the central Bering associated with a 970 mb low Tue morning moves into the northern Bering through Wed morning. A second front approaches the western Aleutians Wed afternoon. The associated 941 mb low moves to 46N 174E by Thu morning. $$ PKZ411-090215- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 32 ft. $$ PKZ412-090215- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ413-090215- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .WED...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. $$ PKZ414-090215- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 353 AM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$
200 FZAK62 PAFC 090046 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-091415- 346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A front over the central Bering associated with a 978 mb Kamchatka low Tue afternoon weakens and moves into the northwest Bering through Wed afternoon. A 940 mb low moves to 48N 178E Thu afternoon while its associated front reaches the central Bering. $$ PKZ411-091415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .THU...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. .FRI...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 22 to 36 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft. $$ PKZ412-091415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft. .WED...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. .FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. $$ PKZ413-091415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .WED...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. .THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. .FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. $$ PKZ414-091415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 346 PM AKST Tue Jan 8 2019 .TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray. .THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. .THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 5, 5:37 PM AKST, 10 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 5, 5:37 PM AKST, 10 hours 3 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 537 PM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The upper level pattern today consists of a deep vertically stacked low in the western Bering, a sharp upper level ridge extending from the eastern Alaska Peninsula north along the western mainland Alaska coast up across the Bering strait and an upper trough shifting across the Alaska Range and into Southcentral Alaska. A swath of strong winds to the south of the surface low in the western Bering, which has been bringing storm force winds to the western Aleutians this morning, is lifting north into the southwestern Bering with gales over much of the rest of the Bering. The associated surface front is currently swinging east, from the eastern Aleutians over the western Alaska Peninsula. Low stratus which covered much of Southwest Alaska this morning is now being eroded by gradually increasing offshore flow ahead of the approaching front. Over Southcentral, stratus and fog persist across portions of the western Kenai, Anchorage, and Matanuska Valley despite the passage of an upper trough. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with both the current synoptic pattern and the next strong low tracking into the western Bering Sunday. Model uncertainty increases Monday and Monday night with regards to another smaller low around the 180 longitude line, tracking north into the Bering and a surface low forming well south of the eastern Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula. && .AVIATION... PANC...Though the airport has cleared out this afternoon, areas of fog and stratus persist very close by. Thus, expect LIFR conditions to settle back in tonight. With no substantive changes in the flow on Sunday, fog and stratus will continue to be a threat. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... A weak shortwave trough moving across the region is spreading clouds across the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains east into the Copper River Basin this evening. This trough is doing little to alter the weak low-level flow across Southcentral, however, so expect areas of freezing fog and low stratus to remain entrenched over the Copper River Basin and across portions of northern Cook Inlet and Turnagain Arm through early Monday as this trough is replaced by another weak ridge. As the trough moves east, gusty outflow winds will again pick up in the gaps and passes along the coast Sunday through Monday morning. Fog and low stratus remain the biggest challenges when it comes to the temperature forecast. But given the continued weak low-level flow and lack of dynamic upper-level features through the weekend, high and low temperatures through the weekend will generally mirror those today. The next shortwave then slides across Southcentral on Monday in association with a developing trough or closed surface low in the northern gulf. From here, guidance diverges on the placement and strength of this feature; however, it looks like there is now higher confidence in the likelihood of a developing closed low in the northern Gulf along with scattered snow showers for the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Chugach Mountains, possibly extending farther east along the coast late Monday into Tuesday. If this is the case, the shift to a southerly flow would bring an end to the outflow winds. The southerly flow will also help scour out the fog, mainly in and around Anchorage, and bring a slight uptick to the temperatures, especially along the coast. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Saturday through Monday)... Low level fog/stratus continued to have its hold on much of YK delta today, and is finally showing signs of dissipating as the overhead ridge slides east and offshore flow increases. The primary front bringing snow to the coast and areas inland is slowing and weakening, but will still bring some snow to the areas, with maybe a few inches from the coast through Bethel and Dillingham into Sunday. Winds with this snow will be the biggest hazard to areas along the coast, as visibilities will likely be reduced to 1 to 2 miles at times as the front moves inland. Monday will repeat what the region saw last night into today with weak onshore flow, ridging overhead and fog/stratus potential. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Saturday through Monday)... There is little change to the forecast as two areas of low pressure will be the dominant features through Monday. The first low sits north of Shemya and is continuing to weaken, as an attendant front stretches across the Bering and sits between the Pribilof Islands and the AKPEN. This front is weakening as it transits the eastern Aleutians. Stronger winds are confined to St. Matthew Island and areas north. The second low will lift out of the northern Pacific and across Attu overnight, bringing another round of storm force winds to the western Aleutians and Bering Sea. There is potential for a brief period of hurricane force wind gusts early sunday morning from Kiska to Adak, but decided against any high wind watch. As the front races east, the low that it is attached to will continue to weaken and slide west toward the Kamchatka Peninsula and becomes completely detached from any upper level support. The front will work across the eastern Aleutians through Monday bringing warm air and rain. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... Beginning Tuesday evening, conditions are expected to improve across the Bering Sea as a storm system tracks north out of the area while weakening. Winds and waves are likely to subside quite a bit through Wednesday night before the next storm system approaches from the south by Wednesday night. The storm is expected to be quite strong with central pressures potentially bottoming out below 950 mb, though the system is expected to weaken as it approaches the Western/Central Aleutians and stay south of the island chain. This would bring upper end gale force winds to most of the Western Bering Thursday night into Friday. Models have been fairly consistent with this storm so far, thus confidence is above average in the track and strength. Though, if the low takes a more northward track and maintains its strength, winds will likely increase into the storm force category. Over the Gulf of Alaska, high pressure will continue to keep the storm track to the south and west, thus expect generally good conditions through the week. Localized higher winds may develop out of bays and passes along the North Gulf Coast due to northerly outflow winds. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The long term forecast begins Wednesday with high pressure over most of Southcentral and a cold Arctic upper level low over the northern mainland. This will keep cold and dry conditions with offshore flow over Southcentral and most of Southwest AK through the end of the week. A few shortwaves rotating around a low south of the AKPEN and the Arctic low will bring some snow showers to parts of southwest AK on Wednesday but should diminish by the end of the day. The Arctic low is expected to shift south some allowing even colder air to filter in over the southern mainland on Thursday. At the same time, a strong North Pacific low will move north towards the Aleutians, but should stay south of the island chain as a strong polar high over Siberia will prevent the system from pushing further north. Regardless, the system will bring very wet and windy conditions to the Aleutians and spread further east towards the AKPEN by the end of the week. Models are now beginning to show the low complex spreading east into the Gulf of Alaska by Friday as high pressure shifts east at the same time. This would bring a pattern change to the southern mainland with a return to warm and wet southerly flow as we head into the weekend. There is still a fair amount of disagreement between models as to how far east the North Pacific low gets, so a lot could change between now and then. Best to keep track of the forecast for updates through the week as the details are worked out. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...Storm Warning 175 176 177 178. Gale Warning 170 172 173 174 179 185. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SS MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 3:03 PM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Jan 5, 3:03 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Jan 5, 3:03 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 61 hr | |
| Jan 5, 3:13 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Jan 6, 3:46 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Jan 6, 4:47 AM AKST | Wind Chill Advisory | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Jan 6, 2:29 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 49 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.