Gale Warning 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

310 
FZAK61 PAFC 261247
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-270130-
347 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
High pressure in the western Gulf of Alaska will move into the 
eastern Gulf Wed afternoon. A strong front will move into the western
Gulf Wed morning and spread across the Gulf through early Thu.

$$

PKZ351-270130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
347 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft building to 7 to 12 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-270130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
347 AM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

191 
FZAK61 PAFC 270042
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-271430-
342 PM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front will move northward across the Gulf on Wed. A 969 mb 
North Pacific low will approach the southwestern Gulf Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-271430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
342 PM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-271430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
342 PM AKST Tue Nov 26 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

170 
FZAK61 PAFC 271232
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-280130-
332 AM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front will move northward across the Gulf today. A 975 mb North 
Pacific low will approach the southwestern Gulf Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-280130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
332 AM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-280130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
332 AM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

441 
FZAK61 PAFC 280039
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-281415-
339 PM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A cold front over southwestern Alaska Wed afternoon will move 
across the western Gulf Thu afternoon, then become nearly 
stationary Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-281415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
339 PM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-281415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
339 PM AKST Wed Nov 27 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.

$$

223 
FZAK61 PAFC 281207
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
307 AM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-290230-
307 AM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A cold front will move into the western Gulf this afternoon. The 
front then becomes nearly stationary over the western Gulf Fri 
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-290230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
307 AM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-290230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
307 AM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.

$$

764 
FZAK61 PAFC 290057
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 PM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-291400-
357 PM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A cold front will move into the western Gulf Thu afternoon. The 
front then becomes nearly stationary over the western Gulf Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-291400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 PM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-291400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 PM AKST Thu Nov 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

178 
FZAK61 PAFC 291212
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 AM AKST Fri Nov 29 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-300200-
312 AM AKST Fri Nov 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front tracks eastward from the western Gulf and weakens this
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-300200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
312 AM AKST Fri Nov 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-300200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
312 AM AKST Fri Nov 29 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKST Mon Nov 25 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
At the surface, there is a decaying low near Cordova, a mature
low in the north Pacific and a second mature low near Kamchatka.
On the latest ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) has detected an area
of gale force winds over the Barren Islands and in the Gulf Of
Alaska associated a gap wind scenario. ASCAT has also detected a
broad area of gales in the Bering associated with the Kamchatka
low. There is a 150 knot jet core in the north Pacific and a 160
knot jet core nosing its way into the Western Bering. In the wake
of the arctic front, substantially colder temperatures have been
observed across the Anchorage Bowl. At Merrill Field the
temperature was 17 degrees Fahrenheit at midnight which is 15
degrees colder than the previous midnight observation for Merrill
Field.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good synoptic agreement with regards to the front
moving across the Bering today and Tuesday. However, there is a
low in the North Pacific and the models diverge with the
evolution of this feature. The current thinking is to hedge
towards the ECMWF and the NAM over the GFS which appears to be an
outlier at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds should persist this TAF
package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
With the upper level low near the Alcan border, the arctic front
has moved into Southcentral Alaska bringing in colder
temperatures for the next two days. A surface trough just offshore
from the northern Gulf coast will keep some northerly outflow
winds through channeled terrain along the Gulf coast.

This pattern is the break in between systems as the next system
will begin to move into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This system will be a very complex one and will have the potential
for both areas of heavy snowfall as well as mixed precipitation
type.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The weather pattern across Southwest Alaska is about to undergo a
radical change towards the warmer and wetter. A strong front
associated with a low is tracking across the Bering this morning.
This front will cause the wind flow to turn onshore/southwesterly.
Warmer air will replace the current cold air mass rather quickly.
The warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off the coast
will further support the warmer air mass that will be encroaching
into Southwest Alaska. Snow will begin along the coast of the
Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. Overnight, the warmer air will
advance inland, changing the snow into rain as temperatures warm
through the day and into tonight into the 30s. Depending on the
intensity of the precipitation, heavier rates may allow for snow
to mix in, though above freezing surface temperature should limit
accumulations across the Kuskokwim Delta. Precipitation will
overspread the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and northern inland areas of
Bristol Bay tonight into Tuesday morning. Since the main front is
expected to stall out along the coast, the heaviest precipitation
will also remain over the Kuskokwim Delta, with only remnants
encroaching inland. Thus, while the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
northern Bristol Bay should remain mostly snow through this event,
the precipitation amounts will be much lesser than areas further
west, where there is greater confidence that rain will be the
dominant precipitation type. Thus, there are no winter weather
advisories in effect for Southwest Alaska.

Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for the coast everywhere
from Cape Newenham northward through Hooper Bay. 40-55 mph winds
will be directed directly into the coast of the Kuskokwim Delta.
This combined with the new moon phase will cause already
astronomically high tides to rise well above where they would be
with no wind. Near Cape Newenham and Goodnews Bay, the winds will
be somewhat parallel to the coast, so high tides will only be 2-4
feet above a normal high tide. Further north in the Kuskokwim Bay
on up through Hooper Bay, the winds will be stronger and plowing
right into the coast, this will support tides of 4-7 feet above a
normal high tide, especially Tuesday morning. Thus, coastal
flooding will likely be the greatest impact for the area.

The front stalls over the Kuskokwim Delta on Tuesday, while
further east, any precipitation will be tied to waves moving north
along the front, and thus will be more intermittent. On Tuesday
night through Wednesday, the front will resume drifting eastward.
At this point the model differences are much greater, pertaining
to how a low tracks up Shelikof Strait on Wednesday. These large
model differences result in much more uncertainty to how long and
how intense the precipitation over Southwest Alaska will be on
Wednesday. A westward track along with encroaching cold air from a
cold front may result in significant snowfall accumulations along
the Alaska Range, while the models that keep the low further east
in the Gulf will direct that precipitation into Southcentral, and
only snow showers will remain over Southwest Alaska. This will be
refined in future forecasts.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day, despite the aforementioned
model differences, most of them are suggesting another polar air
mass settles into the area, so seasonably cold and dry weather is
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The main theme in the Bering will be the front currently over the
western Bering that will slowly track over the eastern Bering
through Wednesday. Today is when the front will be strongest,
where storm force winds are expected from the western Aleutians
now across the open waters of the Bering today and impacting
Nunivak Island this evening. The winds and associated high seas
will be the primary impacts from the front, beyond the front's
slow movement resulting in a prolonged period of gales for the
eastern Bering through the day Tuesday. Behind this front, a
reinforcing Siberian air mass will stream eastward across the
Bering through Wednesday. This should return much of the Bering
back to widespread snow showers with frequent breaks and sunshine
in between. This pattern will persist through Wednesday, when
another warm front moves into the western Aleutians. Not much
precipitation is expected with this front, with a strong high in
place over the central Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Southerly gales are expected to spread from west to east across
the Bering and Aleutians Thursday and Friday as a front works its
way across the area. Northerly Gales are expected south of the
eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on Thursday and Friday with
strong inflow into a low over the southern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Shortwave energy initially over the eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea
into the North Pacific on Wednesday should progress eastward and
weaken while a mid-latitude system to the south remains separated
from most of this energy and eventually drops southeastward.
Toward the end of the week and weekend the pattern will become
more dominated by a deep upper low moving into or just inland from
the extreme western/northern Bering. The overall trough containing
the upper low should extend south into the mid-latitude Pacific,
with the trough axis most likely reaching the eastern Bering
around next Mon. Expect a downstream ridge aloft to cross the
mainland around Fri-Sat and continue into western Canada. For the
southern Alaska mainland this will lead to a warming trend
Wednesday and Thursday, with warmer than normal temperatures
continuing through the weekend. Precipitation type will therefore
be an issue for most of the extended forecast.

Operational model runs and individual ensemble members display a
decent amount of spread and run-to-run variability to temper
confidence in the forecast, and thus it is a little below
average.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Coastal Flood Advisory: 155 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 177-179 181 185 411-414.
Gale Warning: 127 130 131 165 170 173 175 176 180 351.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL