Gale Warning 548, NWS Anchorage, AK

245 
FZAK52 PAFC 231151
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-240100-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 959 mb low 15 nm northwest of Port Heiden moves across the 
Alaska Peninsula through Wed morning. A front associated with a 
962 mb North Pacific low enters the western Bering Thu morning, 
moves across the central Bering into the eastern Bering Thu night 
and remains over the Bering through Fri morning.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard 
proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ150-240100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-240100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft except 28 ft from the Shumagin
Islands E. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-240100-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-240100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-240100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-240100-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-240100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ173-240100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-240100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-240100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ176-240100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-240100-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.FRI...N wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-240100-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 60 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...N wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-240100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-240100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 55 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-240100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-240100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

482 
FZAK52 PAFC 232303
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-241215-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 968 mb low over Bristol Bay will move inland this evening. A 960
mb North Pacific Low will be located 390 nm SW of Amchitka 
Thursday afternoon and will move to 190 nm S of Amchitka Friday 
afternoon while weakening to 966 mb.

NOTICE: Please comment on a U.S. Coast Guard 
proposal to terminate medium frequency NAVTEX broadcasts. Visit 
https://go.usa.gov/xVHc3 to submit comments by November 12, 2019.

$$

PKZ150-241215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-241215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-241215-
Bristol Bay-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-241215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-241215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-241215-
Unalaska Bay-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-241215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-241215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-241215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 25 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-241215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-241215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 27 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-241215-
Adak to Kiska-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Bering side, NE wind 55 kt. Pacific side, E wind 30 kt
increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SAT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-241215-
Kiska to Attu-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.THU...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-241215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-241215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 55 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-241215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-241215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
303 PM AKDT Wed Oct 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
839 AM AKDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low which has been anchored in the central Bering
is now starting to drift slowly south. Numerous shortwaves
continue to rotate around the periphery of the broad low with
several open waves pushing south through the western Bering and
over the western and central Aleutians. An upper level trough
with an associated surface low is located just to the south of
the eastern Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula, with another
upper trough and surface low near Nunivak Island. Weak troughing
extends into the southwestern Gulf with ridging building into the
central and eastern Gulf following the low pressure system
tracking inland into British Columbia. The next incoming storm is
in the process of spinning up well to the south of the eastern
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have come into good agreement regarding the track and
strength of the very strong low moving north towards the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay area tonight through Wednesday. This is
also the case with the rather powerful north Pacific low tracking
in from the west to the south of the Aleutians Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday
morning. Easterly winds across the Chugach Mountains and through
Turnagain Arm will increase rapidly tonight through Wednesday
morning. While a northerly gradient down Cook Inlet is expected
to keep the stronger surface winds bent away from the terminal,
wind shear due to stronger easterly winds aloft will be a
potential concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A strong low will begin to track east of the Kenai Peninsula this
evening. Easterly winds will rapidly increase Wednesday morning
across coastal areas along Prince William Sound as well as the
Whitter region and Turnagain Arm. The Turnagain Arm area is
expected to peak late Wed morning at around 60 mph with gusts
near 70 mph. Gusty northeasterly winds around 30 mph are also
likely in the Matanuska Valley at the same time. Periods of heavy
rain are expected along the associated front. However the Mat-Su
Valleys, Anchorage and the Western Kenai will be heavily
downsloped in cross barrier flow and thus precipitation will be
limited in those areas.

As the low moves onshore in SW AK Wednesday afternoon, it will
become vertically stacked and begin to slowly weaken. However,
strong southerly winds on the eastern side of the circulation will
continue to advect moisture northward into the Seward area, which
could see up to 2" of rain through early Thursday morning. Winds
will likewise diminish over the same time period. As such, areas
that were originally downsloped could begin to see light showers
by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Drying conditions and weak winds will persist through the first
half of today across the Southwest before a pattern change moves
in later this afternoon. A strengthening North Pacific low will
make its first impact to interior Bristol Bay this afternoon into
the early evening hours. Strong northeasterly winds and widespread
precipitation will accompany this system as it continues its path
northward towards the lower Kuskokwim Valley and Delta for
Wednesday. Precipitation associated with this low should fall as
rain for most locations, with the exception to locations in the
Kuskokwim Delta that may have cold enough temperatures to start
off as snow. This will quickly transition to rain once the warmer
air moves in. As the systems begins to move eastward on Thursday,
precipitation begins to taper off through the afternoon hours,
leaving only a few lingering showers across the region. Winds
will also begin to weaken, switching over to a north-northwesterly
flow as the low continues to exit the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The area of low pressure near the Pribilofs will continue to
weaken through the afternoon hours, while small craft northerly
flow remains over the central and western Bering through Wednesday.

This afternoon will see its first impacts from the North Pacific
low that is quickly deepening as it makes its way towards the
AKPEN. Gale force winds will move into areas south of the AKPEN
and into Bristol Bay starting this afternoon as the low's center
continues to move over Chignik in the overnight hours. Winds will
increase to storm-force on the south side of this low center
later tonight and through Wednesday evening. Wave heights will
quickly increase to between 25 and 30 feet in the coastal waters,
with up to nearly 40 foot seas southwest of Kodiak Island. As
the flow becomes northerly over the eastern Bering Wednesday
morning, winds will increase to gale-force for much of the day
before weakening to small crafts through Thursday morning.

The next potential storm-force low system begins to enter the
western Aleutians and Bering on Thursday morning. See the Marine
and Long Term discussions for more details on this system.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
For the Gulf side, the main concern on Thursday is with the
progression of a low across the Gulf. Models vary on the track of
the low resulting in differences of northwest winds near the
Barren Islands ranging from gale force to light winds. Currently a
more northerly low track seems more favorable resulting in small
craft winds through the Barrens, but confidence is low.

The focus then shifts to a system approaching the western
Aleutians Thursday. There is high confidence with this system
being storm force into Friday. Confidence diminishes over the
weekend as the low moves into the Bering and the models diverge
with its track.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term, beginning on Thursday, has one low exiting the
Gulf and a new low approaching the western Aleutians from the
North Pacific. The North Pacific low is bringing a long fetch of
warm air and moisture with it. As the low tracks east on Friday,
ridging will build in over the southern mainland. On Saturday the
ridge will block the progression of the low and the low will start
to track north into the Bering. Model confidence is low with how
the low will move into the Bering, however there is high
confidence of an atmospheric river setting up between the low and
the ridge. Models are also starting to converge on a more western
setup of the atmospheric river which places it closer to the
Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 131 132 138 150 155.
		 Gale Warning 120 125 129 130 136 137 139 140 141 160 165 170
					  172 180 181 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...DK