Gale Warning 476, NWS Anchorage, AK

357 
FZAK52 PAFC 282346
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291315-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb low 60 nm Northwest of Nelson Lagoon moves into 
Southwest Alaska at 998 mb for Sun morning. Its front pushes into 
the Gulf of Alaska by Sun afternoon. Weak high pressure slides 
across the Aleutians and Bering through Mon afternoon. A new front
approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering for Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-291315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291315-
Bristol Bay-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-291315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt...except S 25 kt east of Port Moller in the
evening. Gusts to 40 kt out of bays and passes in the evening. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291315-
Unalaska Bay-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291315-
Adak to Kiska-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291315-
Kiska to Attu-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-291315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-291315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
346 PM AKDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

781 
FZAK52 PAFC 291127
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-300045-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
High pressure builds into the Bering through Mon morning before a
frontal boundary from a 997 mb Kamchatka low enters the western 
Bering then dissipates by Tue morning. A frontal boundary associated
with a 993 mb Gulf low develops over the Alaska Peninsula late Mon 
night into Tue morning.


$$

PKZ150-300045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-300045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-300045-
Bristol Bay-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-300045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-300045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-300045-
Unalaska Bay-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-300045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-300045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-300045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-300045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-300045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-300045-
Adak to Kiska-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-300045-
Kiska to Attu-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-300045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-300045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-300045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-300045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
327 AM AKDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 PM AKDT Fri Sep 27 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge of high pressure currently extends from the Gulf through
eastern portions of the state. Further west, an area of low
pressure continues to spin over the western Bering, with its
associated surface front approaching the coast of southwest
Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement through the weekend, before
diverging some for the start of next week. The main discrepancy,
as shortwave energy dives into the base of a Bering Sea trough
late weekend, is where does the new low form near Kodiak and what
track does it take (closer to the coast versus more of an
easterly component through the Gulf). The path this system
eventually takes affects who gets how much rain as we head into
the Monday night/Tuesday time frame. As is typically the case,
model uncertainty increases as we head through the remainder of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds with VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period, with some showers approaching the area Saturday
afternoon, ahead of an incoming warm front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A pattern change to wet, windy weather is on tap this weekend in
Southcentral. The ridge over Alaska is slowly weakening and
shifting eastward, and high clouds are moving in upstream of a
Bering trough. Later tonight, a surface low will form several
hundred miles south of the eastern Aleutians, under a 140kt jet.
The low will quickly track northeast toward Bristol Bay, and sweep
a warm front into the Gulf.

Expect precipitation on Kodiak Island by late Saturday morning...
then reaching the Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf coast Saturday
night, and inland early Sunday. Increased east winds will
accompany the front, with gales likely over the Barren Islands
into Kamishak Bay by Saturday afternoon. Southeast winds will
impact the usual gaps as well, including Turnagain Arm, Passage
Canal and the Copper River Valley late Saturday night into Sunday.
While strong winds are likely along the Anchorage Hillside,
models continue to indicate a surface low developing in the
southern Cook Inlet. If this comes to fruition, strong gusty winds
should be diverted away from lower elevations in Anchorage.
However, the latest runs still struggled with this feature and a
slight change in progression could cause stronger winds to mix
into town.

East winds will probably cause some initial downsloping along the
western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl, however deep
southwest flow aloft should overcome downsloping. With the
moisture fetch behind the warm front reaching into the subtropics,
snow levels over Southcentral will generally be above 4500 ft.
There could be periods of heavier rain in Seward with this system.
The other area that will see heavier precipitation is the
northern Susitna Valley in upslope flow.

Precipitation will diminish Monday as the steering low exits to
the north, and a trailing cold front will approach the Gulf from
the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A large upper level trough over the Bering will be a key player in
steering a North Pacific low over Southwest this weekend. In the
meantime, rain and gusty southerly flow along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast will diminish this evening as a front associated with a
broad low in the Bering moves inland. Behind this front, a North
Pacific low arrives over the Alaska Peninsula for Saturday
morning, bringing gusty southerly flow and moderate to heavy
rainfall. As the low lifts northward, a ridge of high pressure to
the east will aid to strengthen winds over the greater Bristol Bay
area Saturday night into Sunday. Widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected across Southwest for most of the weekend. As
the low continues to move toward the northeast, precipitation
will taper to scattered showers by Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Cloudy skies and scattered showers will persist over much of the
western and central Aleutians through Sunday thanks to a broad
area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Bering. A
second low arrives over the eastern Bering from the North Pacific
for Saturday. Expect heavy rainfall east of Unalaska Island with
gusty southerly winds. As the low moves inland, wind and rain are
expected to taper by the end of the weekend with generally
westerly flow expected across the Bering by Sunday night. The next
inbound front arrives over the western Aleutians Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...
All signs point toward a strengthening low in the Gulf on Monday
through Tuesday, though it's hard to say where in the Gulf it
will be located. Based on the expected strength and size of the
storm, widespread gale force winds appear likely, with some
potential for areas of storm force winds. Winds will come down
on Wednesday as the storm exits to the eastern Gulf. The Gulf
storm could also produce gale force winds along the Alaska
Peninsula. Otherwise, don't see any impactful storms across the
Bering Sea/Aleutians through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Thursday)...
A deep low will be positioned in the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday,
though confidence in it's location is low. There is pretty high
probability of strong winds and moderate to heavy rain along the
Gulf coast and Kodiak Island. The low position will affect whether
the rest of Southcentral Alaska see anything out of this. In any
case, the low will exit eastward on Wednesday, with drier
conditions moving in.

Upper level flow will become quite progressive behind the initial
Gulf low, with a trough driving eastward out of Russia Tuesday
and Wednesday and reaching the Gulf Thursday and Friday. Models
disagree on timing and amplitude of this trough and display poor
run-to-run consistency so overall forecast confidence is low. In
general, expect a "weakish" low and frontal system to cross the
Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain spreading into
Southwest Alaska late Wednesday. All of this will then shift to
the Gulf and Southcentral Thursday or Friday. There is agreement
that the trough will amplify in the Gulf as a ridge builds
upstream in the Bering Sea ahead of recurving tropical systems
over the west Pacific. Thus, would expect good potential for
another round of heavy rain and strong winds along the Gulf coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 120 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB