Gale Warning 460, NWS Anchorage, AK

418 
FZAK52 PAFC 202344
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211230-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 996 mb low 300 nm northwest of Saint Paul Island moves into the 
northeast Bering at 989 mb midday Sat. A 999 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 65 nm southwest of Adak at 990 mb Sat afternoon then moves 
to 25 nm south of Cold Bay at 974 mb Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-211230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E of Chirikof Island, NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in
the afternoon. West of Chirikof Island, NW wind 25 kt diminishing to
15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211230-
Bristol Bay-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. From 
Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211230-
Unalaska Bay-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming E 20 kt. Seas 3 
ft in the evening building to 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NE 35 kt. Seas 6 ft
in the evening building to 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 in the evening becoming N 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211230-
Adak to Kiska-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211230-
Kiska to Attu-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-211230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind up to 15 kt in the evening becoming S 25 kt
after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ185-211230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, N wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 35 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 25 kt diminishing
to 15 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level trough over the eastern Bering Sea, with a
ridge over the Yukon Territory. This is bringing moist southwesterly
flow aloft to all of southern Alaska, and some showers to much of
the area. There is a strong surface low rapidly forming south of
Kodiak Island, and moving toward the northeast into the Gulf of
Alaska. There is a flat upper level ridge over the central and
eastern Bering. There is a trough and a developing surface low
over the far western Bering moving eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement. There are some timing
issues with a low that moves from the northern Bering Friday night
into southwest Alaska on Saturday, but this low is not real strong
and the forecast implications are minor. The forecast confidence
is higher than normal with the exception of this Bering/southwest
low.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Steady rain with the next storm system will develop this
evening. Cross barrier flow will initially maintain VFR conditions.
However, this will quickly weaken overnight as the deepening low
over the Gulf lifts northward toward the eastern Kenai Peninsula.
While the low doesn't quite move to the "sweet spot" for heavy
precipitation in Anchorage, still expect to get under a portion of
the deformation band ahead of the low. Thus, will likely drop to
MVFR ceiling and visibility as heavier rain moves in early Friday
morning. Intensity will then diminish by 00Z Saturday, though
continued cyclonic flow aloft will keep some light rain in the
area. This could also lead to IFR clouds in the vicinity, though
would expect most of these clouds to form near the mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread wetting rains are once again expected across
Southcentral with this next storm. The big difference from
previous storms will be the storm track, with a low tracking
into Prince William Sound. This event will be much more favorable
for significant rainfall across the Copper River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Tonight
through Saturday)...

Widespread wetting rains from an incoming low are making their way
into Southcentral this afternoon. The shower activity over
Anchorage has moved west of town for now, but is expected to
refill in on radar over the next few hours. The radar is already
showing rain moving into Cook Inlet and the Gulf Coast around
Homer and Seward. Steadier rain will overspread all of Southcentral
tonight. The low causing all of this rain is centered well south
of Kodiak right now. It will intensify as it moves into the
northern Gulf south of Seward Friday morning. This will cause
strong winds associated with the barrier jet to increase overnight
along the coast mainly from Hinchinbrook Entrance eastward, where
a Storm Warning is in effect. The center of the low will move
into Prince William Sound Friday evening, which will keep light
rain ongoing through Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, the Gulf
Coast, and the Copper River Basin. This will be a very good track
for rainfall in the Copper River Basin, so much more rain is
expected there with this low than the previous rainfall event.

On Saturday, the low will circulate back into the northern Gulf,
as the associated moisture only very gradually shifts eastward
with time. This will lead to strong westerly winds ongoing through
the Barren Islands and southern Cook Inlet from Friday right into
Saturday. Gradual clearing is expected from west to east during
the day Saturday, mainly over the Susitna Valley and Cook Inlet,
taking until late in the day at the earliest to reach Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley. With the clearing skies, colder air will
move in as well behind the low, with a real threat for freezing
temperatures in interior areas of the Kenai Peninsula, east
Anchorage, and the Mat-Su Valleys Saturday night. Where
precipitation persists longer in the Copper River Basin, snow
showers are possible Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Tonight
through Sunday)...

Rain will lift northeast from Bristol Bay to the Middle and Upper
Kuskokwim Valley through the overnight hours as a weak trough
tracks inland along the Alaska Range. For the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Y-K Delta, clearing this evening will once again allow
for patchy fog to develop as overnight temperatures drop to near
freezing. A cool, northwesterly flow along the backside of the
trough will persist through late Friday as scattered showers
linger in the higher elevations. Showers and cloud cover diminish
overnight Friday into the first half of Saturday as a ridge tracks
over the region. Overnight lows will again drop to a few degrees
either side of the freezing mark as patchy fog settles along the
Kuskokwim Valley. The ridge slides quick to the east on Saturday
as the next frontal system approaches the coast. This system will
bring gusty southerly winds and rain to the Kuskokwim Delta before
lifting north and east in response to a stronger low moving from
the central Aleutians to the AKPEN. This second system looks to
bring another round of widespread rain across the AKPEN and
Bristol Bay up to Kuskokwim Bay as it sweeps a front along the
coast on Sunday before tracking southeast away from the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3;
Tonight through Sunday)...

Northwesterly small-craft winds will develop from the eastern
Bering south across the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN by early
tomorrow in response to a tightening pressure gradient between a
deepening trough in the Gulf and a ridge building and moving east
over the Aleutians. By late Friday these winds will increase to
gales over the coastal waters south of the AKPEN. A low over the
northern Bering will move to Saint Matthew Island by Friday night
with rain and small-craft winds stretching from the Pribilofs to
the Y-K Delta coast. Rain and winds from this system then diminish
on Saturday as the low moves to Norton Sound. For the Aleutians,
the eastward moving ridge will reach the AKPEN by Saturday as a low
moves south of the western Aleutians in its wake. The center of
the low in expected to be near Nikolski by late Saturday with its
associated occluded front draped from Dutch Harbor to Cold Bay.
Widespread rain and small-craft winds will accompany the front
along with an area of northerly gales wrapping around the
backside of the low. The low makes moves to near Cold Bay by
Sunday as its front advances to the southwest coast. Behind the
low, the northwesterly winds strengthen to strong gales with
the possibility of storm-force winds developing south of Dutch
Harbor.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Starting Sunday, winds in the Gulf will diminish as a low exits to
the east. Small craft advisory level seas driven by fresh swell
will persist Sunday morning, but likely diminish by the afternoon.
Attention turns to a low currently developing south of the
central Aleutians. Gales are expected over the central and eastern
Aleutians by Sunday, then models continue to project a triple
point low developing late Sunday into Monday that would bring
gales into the Gulf. There's uncertainty with the path/strength
of the secondary low, but at this point confidence is growing that
there will be gales in the Gulf Monday, possibly persisting into
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A relatively progressive pattern will continue as a low traverses
the Aleutians, bringing widespread precipitation and gusty winds
to the Aleutians Sunday. The Southwest mainland will probably see
some precipitation from this system, especially over the AKPEN...
but the primary impacts will be felt over the Aleutians. The low
is expected to track into the Gulf. Thus, as the low progresses
eastward Sunday into Monday, precipitation is expected over Kodiak
Island and the North Gulf Coast. Farther north, east/northeast
flow will prevail and relatively dry weather is expected. An
Arctic trough over the Bering Strait will strengthen by midweek,
maintaining relatively cold conditions and unsettled weather over
southern Alaska. Another low will develop in the central Bering
Thursday into Friday, but it's too early for confidence in
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119. Gale Warning 120 130 131 132 138 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM