Gale Warning 417, NWS Anchorage, AK

013 
FZAK62 PAFC 211147
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220115-
347 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low Sat morning at 60N 173W moves inland near 62N 166W 
at 991 mb by Sat afternoon. A 998 mb low Sat morning at 50N 171E
moves to 52N 168W at 990 mb by Sun morning and then moves into the
western Gulf at 970 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-220115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.TODAY...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt becoming N 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

903 
FZAK62 PAFC 212352
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221315-
352 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front associated with a 989 mb low moves into the Bering Strait
Sun afternoon. A 993 mb low at 50N 178W moves to 54N 159W at 972
mb Sun afternoon and then moves into the western Gulf by Mon
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-221315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A long wave trough currently resides over southwest AK and is
extending southeast from an upper level low located in the
Chukchi Sea. This trough is pushing northeast and is supporting
the low pressure system that is currently moving into Southcentral
AK from the Gulf of Alaska. Behind this trough, zonal flow
continues right over the Aleutian Chain, furthering the rapid
succession of low pressure systems through our forecast area.
Indeed, the next two lows are already lined up. One is a weak low
currently moving through the Bering Sea and will impact Southwest
AK tomorrow. The other is a more significant low that is just
entering the western Aleutians and will make its way east,
entering the Gulf of Alaska Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to perform well in the short term. Differences do
emerge with respect to a low pressure system moving into the Gulf
Monday, so there is some uncertainty there. However, they agree
enough for us to know the next system of importance will be moving
into the area Sunday into Monday. So, we still have confidence in
the forecast, even if particulars need to be ironed out.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A low pressure system moving through the area will provide
the possibility for MFVR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, expect
overcast skies with light rain, but conditions remaining VFR.
Winds will be light out of the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another low pressure system moving through Southcentral AK is
bringing steady rain to areas around fires. Enough precipitation
should fall to produce wetting rains. Weather will continue to
remain cool and damp after the exit of the low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The biggest forecast question for today involves the track of the
low in the Gulf and how far east it will go in the Prince William
Sound area. It looks as though the low will enter the eastern part
of the sound instead of the western part today. While this is a
small difference, it will make a difference in how soon the rain
on the western edge of this system ends or at least becomes much
lighter. The Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley will be near
this edge today and tonight and that is why this may be noticeable.
Therefore, lowered the amount of QPF expected over Anchorage and
the Mat-Su valleys, but kept the POPs rather high. This is because
there will still be some light rain, but the heaviest amounts
look to be farther to the east over the Chugach Mountains.

After this system clears to the east there will a short break
before the next system moves into the area from the southwest late
Sunday. This break may bring in widespread clear skies Saturday
night which would likely bring in the first freeze of the season
to areas such as east Anchorage, the Butte, and near Kenai.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1-3: Fri-Sun)...

Cool temperatures, northerly flow, and patchy fog remain across
Southwest Alaska for this morning. Showers across Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Valley will diminish through this afternoon as the
current system moves eastward out of the region. Low temperatures
overnight will once again dip near the freezing mark across the
region as clearing conditions continue before the next front
approaches the southwest coast for Saturday. Widespread precipitation
will move inland over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay by
Saturday afternoon as the front lifts northeastward through Sunday
morning.

A new and stronger low moving inland from the Bering will become
the dominant feature by Sunday afternoon, keeping a track farther
south than the previous feature. This will bring another another
shot of widespread rainfall to the the Alaska Peninsula and
Bristol Bay region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The eastern Bering and Bristol Bay will continue to see northwesterly
small craft advisory winds associated with the low that has moved
into the gulf. Strong gap flow along southern portions of the AKPEN
will continue to see the potential for gale force winds out of bays
and passes, which will slowly diminish through Saturday morning.

A second feature of interest is the low in the northern Bering
this morning that will keep small craft winds and it moves towards
the Pribilofs for Saturday morning. Winds will weaken as the low
moves inland over the Y-K Delta coast by Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon, a strong low approaches the central
Aleutians moving in from the North Pacific. Small craft winds,
increasing to gales, will accompany this low feature, stretching
out into the central and eastern Bering Saturday through Sunday.
The possibility of storm force winds on the back side of this low
cannot be ruled out as winds move over the central Aleutians, from
Dutch Harbor to Cold Bay.  Models are still uncertain about the
exact position of the low center, but this low is expected to
strengthen as it moves eastward for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Starting Sunday, winds in the Gulf will diminish as a low exits to
the east. Small craft advisory level seas driven by fresh swell
will persist Sunday morning, but likely diminish by the afternoon.
Attention turns to a low currently developing south of the
central Aleutians. Gales are expected over the central and eastern
Aleutians by Sunday, then models continue to project a triple
point low developing late Sunday into Monday that would bring
gales into the Gulf. There's uncertainty with the path/strength
of the secondary low, but at this point confidence is growing that
there will be gales in the Gulf Monday, possibly persisting into
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A relatively progressive pattern will continue as a low traverses
the Aleutians, bringing widespread precipitation and gusty winds
to the Aleutians Sunday. The Southwest mainland will probably see
some precipitation from this system, especially over the AKPEN...
but the primary impacts will be felt over the Aleutians. The low
is expected to track into the Gulf. Thus, as the low progresses
eastward Sunday into Monday, precipitation is expected over Kodiak
Island and the North Gulf Coast. Farther north, east/northeast
flow will prevail and relatively dry weather is expected. An
Arctic trough over the Bering Strait will strengthen by midweek,
maintaining relatively cold conditions and unsettled weather over
southern Alaska. Another low will develop in the central Bering
Thursday into Friday, but it's too early for confidence in
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING: 120 125 130-132 138 351 352
         STORM WARNING: 119 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...DK