Gale Warning 415, NWS Anchorage, AK

036 
FZAK61 PAFC 201210
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-210245-
410 AM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 982 mb at 58N 148W moves to 61N 147W at 988 mb Sat morning. A 990 
mb low forms near 59N 147W Sat morning and moves to 59N 142W at 1000 
mb for Sun morning. Its front pushes across the North Gulf Coast and 
Gulf through Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-210245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
410 AM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-210245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
410 AM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

049 
FZAK61 PAFC 202345
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-211300-
345 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 977 mb low near Middleton Island and its associated front 
remain over the northern and western Gulf through Sat evening at 995
mb, then move into the eastern Gulf Sun morning. A front associated 
with a central Bering low moves into the western Gulf on Sunday.

$$

PKZ351-211300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-211300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

363 
FZAK61 PAFC 211148
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-220145-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 987 mb low at 60N 148W moves to 59N 143W at 1002 mb dissipating 
Sun afternoon. A 976 mb low near 55N 159W Sun afternoon moves along 
the front to 55N 151W at 973 mb Mon morning. Its front swings across
the Gulf by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-220145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-220145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
348 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

454 
FZAK61 PAFC 212342
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-221300-
342 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 994 mb low at 59N 146W dissipates by Sun afternoon. A 984 mb low
over the eastern Aleutians Sun morning moves to 56N 143W at 979 mb
by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-221300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
342 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-221300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
342 PM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

747 
FZAK61 PAFC 221118
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 AM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-230145-
318 AM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1001 mb low at 59N 141W dissipates Sun afternoon. A 973 mb low 
near 53N 161W Sun afternoon moves to 58N 139W at 995 mb for Tue 
morning. Its front sweeps across the North Gulf Coast and Gulf 
through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-230145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 AM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-230145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 AM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

483 
FZAK61 PAFC 222345
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-231300-
345 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb eastern Aleutian low moves to 56N 142W at 982 mb Mon 
afternoon then moves inland Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-231300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-231300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 10 to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

387 
FZAK61 PAFC 230639
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1039 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-231915-
1039 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb eastern Aleutian low moves to 56N 142W at 982 mb Mon 
afternoon then moves inland Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-231915-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
1039 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-231915-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
1039 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

924 
FZAK61 PAFC 231114
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-240030-
314 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb at 54N 152W moves inland near 57N 135W at 995 mb by Tue
morning. A trough of low pressure develops in the western Gulf
late Tue night and moves into the central Gulf by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-240030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
314 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-240030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
314 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 12
to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

147 
FZAK61 PAFC 231556
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
756 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-240315-
756 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb at 54N 152W moves inland near 57N 135W at 995 mb by Tue
morning. A trough of low pressure develops in the western Gulf
late Tue night and moves into the central Gulf by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-240315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
756 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain. Slight chance
of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-240315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
756 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas
12 to 20 ft. Isolated thunderstorms in the evening.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

400 
FZAK61 PAFC 232344
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-241330-
344 PM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 985 mb low at 58N 145W
will move into the eastern Gulf early Tue morning. Its associated 
front will remain over the western Gulf through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-241330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 PM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
12 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-241330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 PM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
947 AM AKDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The active fall pattern continues. We have a shortwave trough
currently exiting our forecast area to the northeast, while a
deeper long wave trough is already working across the Aleutian
Island chain and will move into Southcentral AK later today.
Quickly moving zonal flow on the southern side of an upper level
low located over the northern part of AK will keep systems coming
at a rapid clip, with another low lining up in the western
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement for the short term. As a result,
forecast confidence remains high. They seem to be handling the
active fall pattern well, so there has been good continuity
between model runs and our forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Rain will
begin to fall at the airfield again this evening. It looks like
ceilings and visibility will mostly remain VFR, but there is a
chance we could see MVFR conditions with this next round of
weather.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Recent rains have released quite a bit of moisture over areas of
fire activity the past day or so. Rain has tapered off, but the
next round of precipitation will enter southcentral AK tonight
into tomorrow, providing more wetting rains for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Today is the break between weather systems as the low that brought
the widespread rainfall yesterday has moved into Canada. Some
lower clouds are packed up along the mountains in the low level
southwest flow up Cook Inlet and along the north Gulf Coast. The
clouds with the next system have already reached Kodiak Island as
they move in from the southwest and will quickly make sky
conditions cloudy again before rain spreads over the region from
southwest to northeast this evening through Friday.

The surface low with this next system is taking a bit of a
different track from the previous system. Whereas the previous
low moved generally from west-to-east over the region, this one
will enter the Gulf of Alaska from the south and bring a strong
weather front to the north Gulf coast early Friday morning.

This front is now expected to bring Gale force winds into Prince
William Sound late tonight and early Friday morning as well as
Storm force winds in a barrier jet to the north Gulf coast east of
Montague Island. This is an increase in winds from the previous
forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1-2: Thu-Sat)...

A few showers remain along the Alaska Peninsula and southern
Bristol Bay this morning, while a weak upper level ridge begins
to build over the rest of Southwest Alaska. Clearing conditions
across the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta, including Bethel, could
lead to possible patchy fog. Areas in these interior locations
will see morning temperatures near the freezing mark, including
Aniak and Sleetmute, which have both already fallen slightly below
freezing.

This afternoon will bring another chance of showers to Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley as a shortwave moves across the
region through the evening hours. Temperatures will once again be
cooler, but increases in cloud cover will keep it a bit warmer than
this morning's low temperatures. The showery pattern will persist
through Friday afternoon, with the next chance of widespread
precipitation returning on Saturday morning as a low in the
northern Bering moves inland over Southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1-2: Thu-Fri)...

Small craft winds over the western Aleutians this morning will
quickly diminish through the afternoon as the associated low
center drifts southeastward. High pressure will then build in
over the Aleutian Chain on Friday and slowly move eastward
through Saturday. North-northwest flow on Friday afternoon through
Saturday over the eastern Bering and Bristol Bay will keep strong
winds flowing out of bays and passes south of the Alaska
Peninsula.

In the northern Bering, a low moving from Kamchatka will bring
small craft advisory winds across the region reaching the
Pribilofs overnight Friday and continuing into Bristol Bay by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the extended period marine forecast on Saturday, a gale
force low will be stationary along the North Gulf Coast. Cold air
advection will be pushing high end gales through the Barren
Islands and Shelikof Strait, although the highest seas will be
through the Barrens where the longer fetch winds will produce
greater buildup. The low will move east toward the Panhandle on
Saturday. Attention turns to a powerful developing low over the
eastern Aleutians and eastern Bering Sea. Uncertainty is higher
with this low, but there is increasing likelihood that gales to
near storm force winds will impact these areas, focused from
Dutch Harbor eastwards, with the peak strength around Saturday
night through Sunday. The low will shift into the Gulf on Sunday
evening/overnight and last through Monday. By this juncture,
uncertainty with a developing triple point low in the Gulf is
high, but mariners should be expecting a potential high end gale
force to low end storm force low sometime on Monday across the
entire gulf of Alaska. The next strong low moves into the western
Bering Sea Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast on Friday evening, there
will be a low bringing widespread rain to Southcentral with a pair
of lows over the Bering Sea. The low over Southcentral will be
driven in part by an arctic trough to the northwest, so colder air
will be filtering in behind the rain through the remainder of the
weekend. Attention quickly turns to a rapidly developing low
along the Aleutian Chain Saturday night. Currently, this looks to
rapidly deepen into a high end gale force to low end storm low as
it moves from eastern Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska Sunday and
Monday. Given the wrapped up nature of the low, the most rain is
likely to develop across parts of Southwest Alaska, Kodiak, and
the North Gulf Coast with much drier conditions inland given the
downslope pattern. Unsettled weather will switch back to the
Bering Sea midweek as the storm track moves west again, giving a
break from the rain across most of Southern Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119.
 Gale Warning 120 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BJB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...DK