Gale Warning 322, NWS Anchorage, AK

913 
FZAK51 PAFC 292353
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-301300-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the northwest Gulf coast moves ashore Mon afternoon.
A front in the southwestern Gulf Mon afternoon begins to weaken
through Tue morning. High pressure remains in place over central
gulf through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-301300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt in the evening diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-301300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt in the evening diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 9 
ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-301300-
Resurrection Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-301300-
Prince William Sound-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-301300-
Port Valdez-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable wind less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-301300-
Valdez Narrows-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-301300-
Valdez Arm-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-301300-
Passage Canal-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-301300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft in the evening subsiding to 8 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-301300-
Barren Islands East-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ132-301300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-301300-
Chiniak Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-301300-
Marmot Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-301300-
Shelikof Strait-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft subsiding to 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-301300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt in the evening diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 9 
ft subsiding. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-301300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-301300-
Kachemak Bay-
353 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

155 
FZAK51 PAFC 301154
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010030-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf through Thu morning.
A front will persist over the western Gulf through Thu.

$$

PKZ119-010030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010030-
Resurrection Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010030-
Prince William Sound-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010030-
Port Valdez-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010030-
Valdez Narrows-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010030-
Valdez Arm-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010030-
Passage Canal-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010030-
Barren Islands East-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010030-
Chiniak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010030-
Marmot Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010030-
Shelikof Strait-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010030-
Kachemak Bay-
354 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure continues to keep its hold over most of the
mainland. An area of low pressure in the North Pacific extends a
warm front over the northwestern Gulf. This has allowed for
clouds to move in over the southern Kenai Peninsula. Surface
observations also show rain continuing over Kodiak Island.

Out west, a vertically stacked low centered south of Shemya
continues to move northward. Its associated front extends over
the central Bering. Satellite imagery shows plenty of marine
stratus in place over the western and central Bering, while skies
are generally clear over the eastern Bering thanks to the
influence of the ridge over the mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The forecast challenge continues to be the placement of an upper
level low over Southcentral for Monday and its interaction with
the lifting warm front currently over the Gulf. The NAM solution
brings in more moisture from the Gulf, resulting in more
precipitation for the northern Gulf coast Monday night into
Tuesday. Although the GFS is still the driest solution for
Southcentral, it has fallen into better agreement with the NAM and
EC solutions. A blended approach was used for the afternoon
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist even as clouds increase. Gusty
southerly winds will continue through the late afternoon and
evening hours, with light winds resuming after dark. Flow will
become northerly Mon, but there will still be a slight chance for
some southeast winds to clip the terminal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3...Tonight through Wed)... Cloud cover and rain will return to
Southcentral Alaska tonight from a warm front tracking up from the
Gulf. The rain will begin along the southern Kenai Peninsula and
spread north on Monday. Heaviest amounts will be over the eastern
Kenai Peninsula with the Kenai and Chugach Mountains protecting
areas to their west from anything more than intermittent, light
showers. Showers will diminish on Tuesday as the front weakens and
pushes off to the northwest. Wednesday will see more fair
conditions as weak ridging settles in over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Wed evening)

Another beautiful day is playing out across southwest Alaska, with
mainly sunny skies being observed. The exception to this is from
the Alaska Peninsula up towards Iliamna, and the Kuskokwim
Mountains to the northwest of Dillingham. Here, moisture continues
to increase, courtesy of a low that's located well south of the
Alaska Peninsula. Satellite water vapor loops show this stream of
moisture has a weak tropical connection, which combined with
orographic lift and diurnal heating has fostered the increase in
clouds.

Of more significance is a front currently over the western
Bering/Aleutians. This front will approach the coast for Tuesday
before stalling. Then a weak wave of low pressure rides north
along it from the North Pacific. This will bring a renewed surge
of moisture, with additional disturbances crossing the region
helping to boost ascent (lift) in the atmosphere. This all leads
to increasing rainfall potential for the Tuesday into Wednesday
time period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Wednesday evening)

A ~975 mb low continues to approach the western Bering/Aleutians,
with a very strong tropical feed noted in the latest water vapor
loops. This system had some thunderstorms developing along the
front and near the low earlier. However, the core of the cooler
air aloft is becoming somewhat displaced as the system begins to
occlude. Thus, thunderstorms were left out of the forecast. The
main impacts from the front will be widespread rainfall, some of
it heavy at times, and sustained winds increasing to gales.

This front will then trek eastward through Tuesday evening, before
stalling across the eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula. It
outruns its upper-level support and due to a weak wave of low
pressure riding north from the Pacific.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Winds are expected to be below gale force Thursday through
Saturday for the entire forecast area. However, there is a risk of
gales with a front moving through the western Aleutians Friday if
it ends up being a little stronger than currently advertised.
Forecast confidence is high for the northern Gulf of Alaska, and
only moderate for the Bering Sea and Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Wednesday there will be an upper level high over northern
Alaska, an upper low over the Yukon Territory and the Alaska
Panhandle, and an elongated and negatively tilted upper low over
the Bering and Aleutians. There is also an upper high over the
Gulf extending southward. The main forecast challenge is in how
these features change over time. The current consensus is that the
upper high over northern Alaska will retreat northward through
the extended period. The Yukon low will weaken through Saturday,
then move eastward. The Bering/Aleutian low is expected to slowly
consolidate and move eastward, with its center near the eastern
Aleutians by Monday morning. Thus the forecast is for a slow
moving and somewhat stable pattern. The models are in better
agreement today than in previous days, and the forecast confidence
is near to above normal.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 175 176 178 185 412 413 120 131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL