Gale Warning 293, NWS Anchorage, AK

600 
FZAK62 PAFC 301147
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010145-
347 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 mb low at 57N 172E Tue morning moves to 59N 171E at 993 mb
by Wed morning and then to 58N 173E at 1010 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

861 
FZAK62 PAFC 302351
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011400-
351 PM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 mb low at 59N 172E Tue afternoon moves to 59N 171E by Wed
afternoon and begins to weaken by Thu morning. A 1016 mb low over
Cold Bay and its associated front Tue night move to 59N 165W at 
1012 mb by Wed afternoon and remain in the eastern Bering through 
Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

828 
FZAK62 PAFC 011154
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020145-
354 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front in the western Bering Wed morning weakens by Wed 
afternoon. A 1010 mb low at 57N 163W Wed morning moves to 60N 167W
at 1005 mb by Thu morning and then moves to 63N 168W at 1000 mb 
by Fri morning. A front approaches the western Aleutians and 
Bering Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2019

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2019

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2019

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2019

.TODAY...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level pattern continues to be comprised of a longwave
ridge over mainland Alaska with an embedded upper low over
Southcentral, a North Pacific low centered roughly 700 miles south
of the AKPEN, and a vertically stacked gale force low overhead of
Shemya.

The warm front associated with the Southcentral low is slowly
lifting northward into Southcentral, as is precipitation
associated with the front. The North Pacific low has maintained
deep warm south flow behind the front, and rain has been nearly
continuous at the Kodiak airport overnight, with precipitation
observed on the windward side of the AKPEN as well. Along the
southern Kenai Peninsula, virga showers can be seen on radar, but
with dry mid and lower levels, nothing has made it to the ground.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...The main challenge in the short term continues
to be the question of precipitation over Southcentral today into
tomorrow. While the GFS has caved towards the other global models
regarding the track of the upper low, which should increase
confidence in precipitation in Southcentral. However, very dry
mid and low levels bring in uncertainty as to whether
precipitation will reach the ground for inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Turnagain arm winds will increase this afternoon as a
front lifts northward, but expect winds at the airport to stay
light. Increasing pressure gradients in Cook Inlet will cause
winds coming out of Turnagain Arm to bend southward. While
precipitation is possible later today, conditions will most
likely stay VFR thanks to the very dry low level air in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday night)...
Cooler temperatures and cloudy skies are on tap for most of
Southcentral today (Copper River Basin being the exception) as a
warm front lifts northward across the Gulf and an upper level low
spins over Cook Inlet. Precipitation will move onshore along
Prince William Sound today, though it will take a little bit of
time to saturate the very dry low levels in place over the region.
Expect mostly rain with some mountain snow. Moisture will attempt
to spread over the coastal range to the western Kenai, Anchorage,
and the southern Mat-Su, but expect the dry low levels to win
out. At worst there might be a few sprinkles or patchy very light
rain.

As the upper low exits to Southwest Alaska tonight, the warm front
will track more westward, across the Kenai Peninsula and across
Kodiak Island to the Alaska Peninsula. At this point, a more
southerly flow aloft on the east side of the exiting low will help
deeper moisture move inland. Expect some light rain over the
western Kenai, but forcing for Anchorage northward remains weak.
Thus, have stuck with chance of rain in the forecast. If it does
rain in Anchorage or the Mat-Su it will be brief and light.

A ridge will build back in on Tuesday, which should lead to a
warmer day. Another front moving up from the Pacific will move
into the western Gulf, which will keep the rain going in Kodiak.
Mid to high clouds will hang around the western half of
Southcentral (Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su) with
sunnier skies as you head east. The front over the western Gulf
will lift northward Tuesday night and Wednesday, but fall apart as
it does so. The best chance of rain will be across the southern
Kenai Peninsula. Otherwise, expect at least some sunshine for most
of Southcentral with continued warm temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

One more mainly dry day for the vast majority of Southwest Alaska
is expected today, with much of the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley likely seeing full sunshine once again. Meanwhile
further south, clouds should slowly increase through the day, but
most areas should stay precipitation-free given how dry the air
mass over the area is.

The dry weather will come to an end tonight as the combination of
the passage of an upper level low over the area and a front
tracking towards the coast over the eastern Bering result in
increased lift and moisture moving into Southwest Alaska. Rain
will likely initially break out across Bristol Bay late tonight,
then will spread northward into the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta
Tuesday morning. The rain is likely to continue for much of the
day Tuesday across nearly all of Southwest Alaska. It will begin
tapering off late Tuesday afternoon, diminishing to scattered
showers, with more continuous precipitation on the eastern/upslope
areas of the Kuskokwim Mountains.

Scattered shower activity will persist for much of the area into
Tuesday night. The Lower Kuskokwim Valley is most likely to dry
out as the aforementioned front over the eastern Bering stalls out
along much of the Bering coast. Thus, the precipitation focus
should favor coastal locations. On Wednesday morning, an upper
level wave will approach, causing a reintensification of the
rainfall along the coast. A colder air mass will be behind/west
of the front over the Bering. Due to model uncertainty, if the
colder air can move far enough east to reach the coast, some areas
may see the rain change over to snow at times, though as the day
goes on, solar radiation should warm up all areas far enough above
freezing to eliminate any threat of accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

A mid 970s millibar low currently tracking past Attu will remain
the main weather maker for the Bering through Wednesday. The low
will slow down and weaken as it continues to track north to near
the Kamchatka Peninsula. The low will then stall out there through
Wednesday. Meanwhile, the low's leading front will move into the
Pribilofs this evening, then continue towards the Southwest Alaska
coast on Tuesday, where it will stall through Wednesday. The
models are in disagreement over whether or not a new weak surface
low develops along that front. Regardless, the general consensus
is that the front will remain along the coast through Wednesday.
As the low weakens Tuesday and Wednesday, the winds will taper as
well. However, as an upper level trough swings eastward across the
western Bering, shower activity will remain common over that area,
while the central Bering dries out in between systems.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Winds are expected to be below gale force Thursday through
Saturday for the entire forecast area. However, there is a risk of
Gales with a front moving through the western Aleutians Friday if
it ends up being a little stronger than currently advertised.
Forecast confidence is high for the northern Gulf of Alaska, and
only moderate for the Bering Sea and Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Wednesday there will be an upper level high over northern
Alaska, an upper low over the Yukon Territory and the Alaska
Panhandle, and an elongated and negatively tilted upper low over
the Bering and Aleutians. There is also an upper high over the
Gulf extending southward. The main forecast challenge is in how
these features change over time. The current consensus is that the
upper high over northern Alaska will retreat northward through
the extended period. The Yukon low will weaken through Saturday,
then move eastward. The Bering/Aleutian low is expected to slowly
consolidate and move eastward, with its center near the eastern
Aleutians by Monday morning. Thus the forecast is for a slow
moving and somewhat stable pattern. The models are in better
agreement today than in previous days, and the forecast confidence
is near to above normal.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales: 119 120 130 131 138 139 177 178 185 412 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL