Gale Warning 285, NWS Anchorage, AK

137 
FZAK62 PAFC 092336
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101245-
336 PM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 50N 167W will move to 53N 174W at 973 mb Wed 
afternoon. The low will then move to 56N 166W at 970 mb Thu 
morning. 

$$

PKZ411-101245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 PM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 PM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2019

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 PM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 PM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

167 
FZAK62 PAFC 101154
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110030-
354 AM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 51N 173W Wed morning moves to 53N 176W at 975 mb
by Thu morning. A 965 mb low at 48N 170W Wed afternoon moves to
54N 163W at 970 mb by Thu morning and then to 56N 162W at 986 mb
by Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-110030-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110030-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

633 
FZAK62 PAFC 102324
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 PM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111245-
324 PM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 mb low at 53N 175W will dissipate Thu morning. A 964 mb 
North Pacific low will move to 51N 168W Wed night, then to 
56N 164W Thu afternoon at 973 mb. This low will then track 
to 55N 160W Fri afternoon at 987 mb. 

$$

PKZ411-111245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
324 PM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
324 PM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
324 PM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
324 PM AKDT Wed Apr 10 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

777 
FZAK62 PAFC 111125
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 AM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120030-
325 AM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 58N 167W Thu morning moves to 56N 164W at 978 mb 
by Fri morning and then to 55N 152W at 996 mb by Sat morning. A 
983 mb North Pacific low move to 48N 179E by Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ411-120030-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
325 AM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
325 AM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
325 AM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120030-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
325 AM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

096 
FZAK62 PAFC 112334
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121315-
334 PM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 56N 165W will move to 55N 154W at 998 mb Sat
morning. A 984 mb North Pacific low will move to 48N 179W Sat
morning then it will move to 51N 172W at 989 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 PM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 PM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 PM AKDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 PM AKDT Mon Apr 8 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low is positioned over the central Aleutians
this afternoon, extending a trough south into the North Pacific. A
shortwave is present within the flow around this trough just
south of Cold Bay. An inverted trough is easterly oriented,
stretched from Bristol Bay over the Gulf of Alaska. South-southeasterly
flow over southern Alaska is bringing moisture and warmer air to
the southwestern mainland and Southcentral. At the surface,
conditions remain mild. A weakening front over the southwestern
mainland is bringing rain showers to the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay which can be seen by radar. A surface mesoscale low is
spinning in the northern Gulf which is creating convective style
showers through the coastal waters and northern Gulf coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The thing to know about the models today is that they are all
converging toward a common solution with the large low moving
through the area later this week. Yesterday there was a large
difference in track and strength but now they are indicating an
initial low crossing the central Aleutians into the Bering Sea Tuesday
night with a triple point low to the south of this first low. The
triple pint will rapidly swing northeastward bringing much
stronger winds to both the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska regions
for Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence is greatly increased
from yesterday that this solution will work out.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Light winds should continue
through early Tuesday morning. Wind should turn more southeast
during the morning Tuesday and could gust to the 10 to 15 kt
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Monday
night through Thursday)...

The area of active weather continues to be located in the Gulf of
Alaska. Currently a weak frontal boundary is beginning to push on
shore, which will bring rain showers and gusty winds with it to
the Anchorage area. Winds will mainly be confined to the Turnagain
Arm. Warm temperatures will keep the snow level above 2,000 feet,
so any snow will be confined to the mountains with very little
accumulation. Also of note with temperatures, above average
temperatures continue with the observation at Ted Stevens Airport
recording a daily high temperature record of 54F.

The next low will be a significant weather producer as it enters
the southwest gulf on Wednesday. The actual low center will move
northeast up the Alaska Peninsula. However, it will produce gale
force winds for places like Shelikof Strait, Kodiak Island and
Kamishak Bay. These winds will progress northward and increase in
to storm force winds Thursday, with gale to storm force winds
encompassing most of gulf and coastal areas in southcentral AK.
Forecast confidence with this system was a bit shaky yesterday,
but model data has improved since then so we are now confident in
the forecast. We will watch it closely the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Rain will continue this afternoon along the AKPEN and Kuskokwim
Delta under a deformation zone. Scattered showers will linger this
evening into Tuesday as it weakens. As such, clearing is likely
along the coast Tuesday morning which will in turn bring the
chance of patchy fog. Areas of thicker, more widespread fog are
possible over interior regions on Wednesday morning with minimal
low level flow and clear skies overnight. A front will approach
the Bristol Bay coast through the day Wednesday and winds will
gradually increase. Gusts along the coast and in channeled areas
could exceed 50 mph by evening. These winds will diminish from
south to north. As a strong upper level jet develops south of the
AKPEN, confidence is growing for a more intense secondary low to
approach the same area on Thursday which has the potential to
bring even higher gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak low will continue to track south of the Aleutians, however
it will be far enough south that sub gales and low seas are
expected to persist through Tuesday morning. Another north Pacific
low will approach the Aleutians Tuesday evening. Latest model
runs have slightly weakened this low as it is transferring its
energy in the process of phasing with another low developing to
its east. That said, widespread gales are still likely Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning east of Atka. Winds will diminish
Wednesday afternoon under the low, then increase again to upper
gales late- evening into Thursday morning as the second low
approaches Bristol Bay. Gales are likewise expected across the
western Aleutians as cold air wraps around the original low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Thursday through Saturday)

...Gulf of Alaska...

The forecast period starts out on a very active note, with
significant changes made to the forecast for Thursday into Friday.
The numerical guidance has come into much better agreement over
the last 24 hours, facilitating the need for these changes. In
short, sustained winds will rapidly increase to storm force for
most of the coastal waters Thursday afternoon, with a few
hurricane force gusts a distinct possibility for the Barren Islands
region, and just short of hurricane force elsewhere. Given good
fetch length, seas will build into the 15 to 25 feet range, as a
strong front crosses the region from southwest to northeast during
the day. Conditions will rapidly improve for Friday and Saturday.

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

An area of low pressure north of Adak Thursday morning will wobble
eastward while becoming absorbed into a new low racing into the
eastern Bering/western Bristol Bay region later in the day.
Sustained gales will be common for all locations during the day,
with seas averaging in the 15 to 20 feet range. The exception to
this will be from The Shumagin Islands eastward, where some
sustained storm force winds are likely, with some hurricane force
gusts not out of the question. Here, seas will top out in the 25
to 30 feet range. Conditions will gradually improve for Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The weather will become very active on Thursday, as a strong
frontal system crosses the region. This front will be attached to
an area of low pressure moving into western Bristol Bay. Very
strong dry advection wrapping into the low. This combined with a
strong 1.5 mb PV anomaly and favored left exit region jet
dynamics all point to a strong downward mixing potential
environment. Thus, some strong winds will develop near the Alaska
Range across southwest Alaska. Here, look for sustain winds of 30
to 40 with gusts to 55 mph to be possible.

For southcentral, the main wind impacts will be felt through some
passes along the Kenai Peninsula into the Turnagain Arm areas,
where sustained winds of 45 to 55 mph, with gusts to 75 mph may
develop. If the numerical guidance continues to portray this, a
High Wind Watch may be issued for the Turnagain through Portage
area. Some of these winds look to affect the southeastern half of
the city as well, with the highest winds of 30 to 45 mph, with
gusts to 60 mph seem reasonable.

This front will also bring some fairly widespread rainfall, with
the typical rain shadow locations likely just seeing some
sprinkles making it across the Chugach Mountains given the strong
southeasterly flow aloft. This down-sloping effect may give a
boost to the temperatures though, with warm conditions expected to
continue.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 179 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP/KVP
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD