Gale Warning 247, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Mar 11, 2019, 3:06 PM AKDT (23:06 UTC)

Expired

Mar 12, 2019, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

235 
FZAK51 PAFC 112306
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121200-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weak 990 mb low develops over the Kenai Peninsula Mon morning, 
remaining nearly stationary through Tue afternoon when it 
dissipates. A 973 mb Pacific low will move into the southern Gulf 
Wed morning. The associated front will move over the southwestern 
Gulf Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-121200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt...except SE 20 kt along the coast in the
evening. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121200-
Resurrection Bay-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121200-
Prince William Sound-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121200-
Port Valdez-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121200-
Valdez Narrows-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121200-
Valdez Arm-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE wind 20 kt in the late evening.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121200-
Passage Canal-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W wind 20 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas building
to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121200-
Barren Islands East-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121200-
Chiniak Bay-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121200-
Marmot Bay-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121200-
Shelikof Strait-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  Snow and rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building
to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121200-
Kachemak Bay-
306 PM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 11, 4:54 AM AKDT, 10 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad long wave trough extends from a vertically stacked low
that is anchored over the Kuskokwim Delta. Cyclonic flow around
the low is advecting cold air over all of the Bering Sea and the
southwestern Gulf of Alaska. A second, negatively tilted,
vertically stacked low spins over the western Aleutians. A third
low sits over the Kenai Peninsula. Southerly flow associated with
this low is bringing warm air into the Gulf and across Southcentral
from the Pacific. This feature is also promoting southeasterly
surface winds which is creating gusty conditions through Prince
William Sound and along Turnagain Arm. Temperatures remain above
normal for many locations throughout Southcentral, with overnight
temperatures remaining in the lower 30s to near 40 degrees, as
warm air continues to migrate northward. Shower activity over the
western and northern Gulf overnight is also tracking north, moving
over Prince William Sound and along Cook Inlet and portions of
the Anchorage Bowl. For the southwest, the King Salmon and Bethel
radars are indicating widespread rain and snow shower activity
stretching across the Kuskokwim Delta south across Bristol Bay and
over the AKPEN. Strong northwesterly flow wrapping around the
back side of the low positioned over the Y-K Delta is also
continuing to produce showers and winds gusts of 30 to 40 kts
across portions of the eastern Aleutians, Pribilofs, and AKPEN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Numerical models remain in good, consistent synoptic agreement
through Wednesday morning before diverging in their respective
solutions. Guidance continues to have a good handle on the
eastward progression and strength of the low over the western
Aleutians, as well as the developing low in the northern Gulf.
Through the first 24 hours, the biggest forecast challenge (and
differences between models) is the development and timing of
precipitation over Southcentral, especially over Anchorage. The
NAM is the wetter of the solutions, and is slightly faster with
both the onset and ending of the precipitation. Farther west, the
first hint of model disagreement begins Tuesday evening as the
low over the western Aleutians moves over the eastern Aleutians.
Here, the Canadian is the main outlier while the EC, NAM and GFS
remain in good agreement with track and timing. The next system
is a Pacific low that is advancing towards the southern Gulf on
Wednesday morning. Here, models differ greatly with location and
strength of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Ceilings and visibilities will drop to MVFR this morning
as a low tracks to the northern Gulf and spreads a mix of rain and
and snow showers over the airport complex. Conditions are
expected to rebound back to VFR by mid afternoon as with ceilings
lifting back above 5,000ft AGL and showers diminishing in
coverage. VFR conditions are then expected to remain through the
evening and overnight hours. Gusty south to southeasterly winds
will continue throughout the day, with a slight decrease in the
gustiness coinciding with the shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Southerly flow aloft continues across all of southcentral this
morning bringing areas of rain and snow showers. The Kenai radar
has shown widespread showers on it most of the night, but very few
reports of precipitation have been noted except for areas along
the immediate coast. This is likely due to the rain and snow
evaporating or sublimating in the dry layer below 5000 ft. This is
the layer below mountaintop level for the majority of the Kenai
and Chugach mountains which is remaining well mixed with the
southerly surface winds. Colder air aloft is also filtering in
from the west and southwest today which may transition some of
these rain showers back to snow at the surface. However,
temperatures will once again be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for
much of the region which will probably keep the majority of the
precipitation a mix of rain and snow despite the cooling
temperatures aloft. Tuesday should be another mild day across the
region with fewer showers around as we will be between weather
systems. The next low will move into the southern Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday and to the northwestern part of the Gulf by Wednesday
evening. This will bring a strong front to the north Gulf coast
and Prince William Sound which will bring gales and some storm-
force winds to parts of these regions. Precipitation type will be
tricky again with this next system. It looks to be mostly rain
along the coast but the rain/snow level in the mountains is still
a bit uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
There is a surface low near Norton Sound and a broad area of
troughing at 500 mb spanning from Norton Sound to west of St.
Matthew Island. There are numerous weak embedded shortwaves aloft
that will impact the northern Bering through Southwest Alaska.
In general, expect more unsettled weather today with intermittent
showers. A ridge axis will nose its way over the AKPEN and into
Southwest Alaska Tuesday resulting in a brief period of drying.
Then another low will move towards the region with the surface low
crossing the chain just outside Bristol Bay by 12z Tuesday. The
surface low actually tracks almost due north on Tuesday which
would make this more of a coastal precipitation event for
Southwest Alaska. However, a secondary slug of energy will enable
a secondary cyclogenic event which will bring a deep surface low
near Kodiak Island with moisture wrapping around the back side of
the low into the Alaska Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
At the onset of the forecast period there are three lows of
concern. The first is anchored over Norton Sound producing broad
cyclonic flow over the Northern and Eastern Bering. The second low
is positioned slightly west of Adak. The third low is farther
upstream, near mainland Japan. The first of these lows will bring
light to heavy freezing spray from the Pribilof Island to north of
St Matthew Island along with gale force winds. The low near Adak
will intensify as it moves eastward. The third low will deepen as
it moves toward the chain later this week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Confidence remains high that winds will remain out of the
northwest across the Bering Sea and below Gale force through the
weekend as high pressure builds in. The main focus is across the
east and with a low moving into the Gulf in the Tues/Weds
timeframe. Current forecasts are for low end storm force easterly
winds as a front drives into the coast. Behind the front, high end
gale to low end storm winds out of the south look likely across
the eastern offshore zones and into the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast remains relatively good with respect to the
large scale flow across Alaska and the north Pacific. Persistent
upper level troughing near the Aleutians will remain, with a ridge
axis building across western Canada and portions of southeast AK.
Relatively benign weather will persist across southwestern Alaska
and the Aleutian chain, with general showery conditions through
the weekend. The bulk of weather will be across the oceans south
and near the Gulf of Alaska. Southerly winds will usher in warm
and moist air to the region, with much of the precip falling along
the coastal mountains. Much of the Anchorage/MatSu area should
remain rain-shadowed and dry. Temperatures for the most part will
continue to raise through the day, keeping the outlook above
normal.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 132 150 155 165 175 176 177 180.
		Heavy Freezing Spray 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2019Every gale warning in 2019

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.