Gale Warning 246, NWS Anchorage, AK

218 
FZAK52 PAFC 121123
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130030-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low 120 nm southeast of St. Paul will remain nearly 
stationary through Wed morning. The low will then dissipate Wed 
afternoon. The associated front over the eastern Aleutians will 
slowly dissipate through Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ150-130030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt except S 35 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt except W 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130030-
Bristol Bay-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt except SW 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft except 4 ft from Port Moller E.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt becoming
NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft except 7 ft from Port Moller 
E.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130030-
Unalaska Bay-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. 
Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130030-
Adak to Kiska-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130030-
Kiska to Attu-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-130030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
323 AM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

333 
FZAK52 PAFC 122319
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131230-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 mb low 215 nm north of Dutch Harbor moves to 50 nm north of 
Cold Bay at 986 mb and dissipates Thu morning. Its front wraps over 
Western Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska through Thu afternoon. 
A 977 mb low over the northwest Pacific moves to 505 nm south of 
Attu at 980 mb by Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-131230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 15 kt 
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131230-
Bristol Bay-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt except Variable wind 15 kt from 
Port Moller E. Seas 11 ft except 4 ft from Port Moller E.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft except 6 ft 
from Port Moller E.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131230-
Unalaska Bay-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft 
after midnight. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft 
after midnight.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt 
after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131230-
Adak to Kiska-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131230-
Kiska to Attu-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt, except NE 25 kt near 
Nunivak Island. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt, except Variable wind 15 kt near the coast. 
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-131230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
319 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad long wave trough extends from a vertically stacked low
that is anchored over the Kuskokwim Delta. Cyclonic flow around
the low is advecting cold air over all of the Bering Sea and the
southwestern Gulf of Alaska. A second, negatively tilted,
vertically stacked low spins over the western Aleutians. A third
low sits over the Kenai Peninsula. Southerly flow associated with
this low is bringing warm air into the Gulf and across Southcentral
from the Pacific. This feature is also promoting southeasterly
surface winds which is creating gusty conditions through Prince
William Sound and along Turnagain Arm. Temperatures remain above
normal for many locations throughout Southcentral, with overnight
temperatures remaining in the lower 30s to near 40 degrees, as
warm air continues to migrate northward. Shower activity over the
western and northern Gulf overnight is also tracking north, moving
over Prince William Sound and along Cook Inlet and portions of
the Anchorage Bowl. For the southwest, the King Salmon and Bethel
radars are indicating widespread rain and snow shower activity
stretching across the Kuskokwim Delta south across Bristol Bay and
over the AKPEN. Strong northwesterly flow wrapping around the
back side of the low positioned over the Y-K Delta is also
continuing to produce showers and winds gusts of 30 to 40 kts
across portions of the eastern Aleutians, Pribilofs, and AKPEN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Numerical models remain in good, consistent synoptic agreement
through Wednesday morning before diverging in their respective
solutions. Guidance continues to have a good handle on the
eastward progression and strength of the low over the western
Aleutians, as well as the developing low in the northern Gulf.
Through the first 24 hours, the biggest forecast challenge (and
differences between models) is the development and timing of
precipitation over Southcentral, especially over Anchorage. The
NAM is the wetter of the solutions, and is slightly faster with
both the onset and ending of the precipitation. Farther west, the
first hint of model disagreement begins Tuesday evening as the
low over the western Aleutians moves over the eastern Aleutians.
Here, the Canadian is the main outlier while the EC, NAM and GFS
remain in good agreement with track and timing. The next system
is a Pacific low that is advancing towards the southern Gulf on
Wednesday morning. Here, models differ greatly with location and
strength of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Ceilings and visibilities will drop to MVFR this morning
as a low tracks to the northern Gulf and spreads a mix of rain and
and snow showers over the airport complex. Conditions are
expected to rebound back to VFR by mid afternoon as with ceilings
lifting back above 5,000ft AGL and showers diminishing in
coverage. VFR conditions are then expected to remain through the
evening and overnight hours. Gusty south to southeasterly winds
will continue throughout the day, with a slight decrease in the
gustiness coinciding with the shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Southerly flow aloft continues across all of southcentral this
morning bringing areas of rain and snow showers. The Kenai radar
has shown widespread showers on it most of the night, but very few
reports of precipitation have been noted except for areas along
the immediate coast. This is likely due to the rain and snow
evaporating or sublimating in the dry layer below 5000 ft. This is
the layer below mountaintop level for the majority of the Kenai
and Chugach mountains which is remaining well mixed with the
southerly surface winds. Colder air aloft is also filtering in
from the west and southwest today which may transition some of
these rain showers back to snow at the surface. However,
temperatures will once again be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for
much of the region which will probably keep the majority of the
precipitation a mix of rain and snow despite the cooling
temperatures aloft. Tuesday should be another mild day across the
region with fewer showers around as we will be between weather
systems. The next low will move into the southern Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday and to the northwestern part of the Gulf by Wednesday
evening. This will bring a strong front to the north Gulf coast
and Prince William Sound which will bring gales and some storm-
force winds to parts of these regions. Precipitation type will be
tricky again with this next system. It looks to be mostly rain
along the coast but the rain/snow level in the mountains is still
a bit uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
There is a surface low near Norton Sound and a broad area of
troughing at 500 mb spanning from Norton Sound to west of St.
Matthew Island. There are numerous weak embedded shortwaves aloft
that will impact the northern Bering through Southwest Alaska.
In general, expect more unsettled weather today with intermittent
showers. A ridge axis will nose its way over the AKPEN and into
Southwest Alaska Tuesday resulting in a brief period of drying.
Then another low will move towards the region with the surface low
crossing the chain just outside Bristol Bay by 12z Tuesday. The
surface low actually tracks almost due north on Tuesday which
would make this more of a coastal precipitation event for
Southwest Alaska. However, a secondary slug of energy will enable
a secondary cyclogenic event which will bring a deep surface low
near Kodiak Island with moisture wrapping around the back side of
the low into the Alaska Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
At the onset of the forecast period there are three lows of
concern. The first is anchored over Norton Sound producing broad
cyclonic flow over the Northern and Eastern Bering. The second low
is positioned slightly west of Adak. The third low is farther
upstream, near mainland Japan. The first of these lows will bring
light to heavy freezing spray from the Pribilof Island to north of
St Matthew Island along with gale force winds. The low near Adak
will intensify as it moves eastward. The third low will deepen as
it moves toward the chain later this week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Confidence remains high that winds will remain out of the
northwest across the Bering Sea and below Gale force through the
weekend as high pressure builds in. The main focus is across the
east and with a low moving into the Gulf in the Tues/Weds
timeframe. Current forecasts are for low end storm force easterly
winds as a front drives into the coast. Behind the front, high end
gale to low end storm winds out of the south look likely across
the eastern offshore zones and into the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast remains relatively good with respect to the
large scale flow across Alaska and the north Pacific. Persistent
upper level troughing near the Aleutians will remain, with a ridge
axis building across western Canada and portions of southeast AK.
Relatively benign weather will persist across southwestern Alaska
and the Aleutian chain, with general showery conditions through
the weekend. The bulk of weather will be across the oceans south
and near the Gulf of Alaska. Southerly winds will usher in warm
and moist air to the region, with much of the precip falling along
the coastal mountains. Much of the Anchorage/MatSu area should
remain rain-shadowed and dry. Temperatures for the most part will
continue to raise through the day, keeping the outlook above
normal.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 132 150 155 165 175 176 177 180.
		Heavy Freezing Spray 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...SS