Gale Warning 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

992 
FZAK61 PAFC 011253
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-020200-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 954 mb low at 57N 157W moves into Interior Alaska and weakens
for Thu morning. Its associated front moves onshore along the 
North Gulf coast Tue morning. A second front enters the Western 
Gulf Tue night and tracks to the eastern Gulf on Wed. 

$$

PKZ351-020200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-020200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
353 AM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 to 25 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

113 
FZAK61 PAFC 020017
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 PM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-021345-
317 PM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front over the central Gulf lifts to the northern Gulf Wed
morning. Another front enters the western Gulf Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-021345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
317 PM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-021345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
317 PM AKST Tue Jan 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 to 25 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 15 to 19 ft in
the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

024 
FZAK61 PAFC 021249
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKST Wed Jan 2 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-030215-
349 AM AKST Wed Jan 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 mb low at 61N 148W moves into Southeast Alaska and dissipates 
Fri morning. Several troughs track over the Gulf through Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ351-030215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
349 AM AKST Wed Jan 2 2019

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ352-030215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
349 AM AKST Wed Jan 2 2019

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 15 to 18 ft
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKST Mon Dec 31 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The longwave trough over the Bering continues to be the main
player in the weather for our forecast area. The specifics of the
low have shifted in the past day, in that there is no longer an
anchoring low at the base of the trough. There are now a few low
pressure centers circulating within the larger area of low
pressure.

One of these is the closed low moving over southwest Alaska, which
stacks down to the surface and is the powerful low that has
produced hurricane force wind gusts and heavy snow for many
locations in our forecast area over the past day. Another feature
is an open 500MB trough currently over the western Aleutians.
This trough will strengthen as it moves east and will become the
low that is anticipated to move through our forecast area on
Tuesday.

The longwave ridge that was located over the ALCAN border
yesterday has slid east to be over the Yukon this morning, with a
ridge extending back over the Brooks Range in Alaska. This ridging
will keep low tracks moving up the West Coast of the state as they
move in from the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are doing a little better today, well enough that we have
gained confidence in a forecast picture for the next incoming low
on Tuesday. Models still aren't the most consistent run to run,
with this evening's model run taking a different low track for the
low coming in Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement with
each other, so chose to stick with this solution. It works well
with continuity also. The Canadian is out in left field, as it
has been lately so ruled that one out and the NAM is a bit shaky
in consistency as well. As with yesterday, model agreement falls
apart past 48hrs, so not looking past a couple days with the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions will persist for most of the day with low
ceilings. However, wind shear continues to be an issue, as
evident from multiple PIREPs reporting severe turbulence. Early
this morning winds will push down to the surface, gusting out of
the south. As the day progresses winds will diminish at the
surface but wind shear will remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Tuesday night)...
The strong low and associated frontal system which brought strong
winds and heavy precipitation to the region yesterday and last
night will exit northward today. Marginally colder low level air
will filter into Southcentral leading to fairly widespread gusty
southerly winds for most areas. Showers will linger, mainly along
south to southwest facing mountain slopes. Temperatures, which
have risen above freezing across much of Southcentral, will
remain elevated until winds begin to die down late this afternoon
and into the evening hours. Winds will lighten up tonight as high
pressure briefly builds overhead out in front of another strong
storm system moving up from the Pacific.

This storm looks like it will take a further east track than the
current storm, but still pass to the west of Southcentral as it
moves northward across Southwest Alaska late tonight through
Tuesday. There are some fundamental differences with this second
storm which will lead to different weather impacts. Most
significantly, the low will reach its lowest pressure earlier,
which means the northward movement of the storm across Southwest
Alaska will be lower. The significance of this is that the
occluded front will cross the Anchorage area 9 to 12 hours before
the low reaches Anchorage's latitude, which is not a great
scenario for high winds. Another key difference is that the track
of the low will lead to very strong pressure gradients down Cook
Inlet. As the occluded front approaches late tonight the Turnagain
Arm jet (and winds coming across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains)
will bend southward which will protect the Anchorage hillside
from the strongest winds. As the low passes to the north Tuesday
afternoon, Turnagain winds will bend into Anchorage, but pressure
gradients will already have greatly weakened and the winds won't
be all that strong. Bottom line, the winds with this next system
will not be nearly as strong or impactful.

As for precipitation, western Prince William Sound will only see a
quick shot of heavy precipitation right with frontal passage.
Temperatures will be starting out warmer than prior to the current
low, so do not think blowing snow should be a big issue through
Turnagain Pass, though there will certainly still be some reduced
visibilities in falling snow. Eastern Prince William Sound,
including the Cordova and Valdez areas, will see a longer period
of heavy precipitation. First the front will move through Tuesday
morning, then a series of upper waves will rotate across the Gulf
and pass right overhead through Tuesday night or Wednesday. Much of
this will be in the form of rain at sea level, but Thompson Pass
could see periods of heavy wet snow.

Colder air will move back in behind this second storm Tuesday
night through Wednesday causing a transition in precipitation
type back to snow. The pattern looks favorable for some light
snow accumulation from the western Kenai to Anchorage and the
Mat-Su, which for some would be a welcome return to winter
after a couple days of above freezing temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Should be finally seeing the light at the end of the active
weather tunnel here in the short-term forecast for Southwest
Alaska. But first thing's first, we have the current storm to
finish up with and a second one following right behind it to get
through. The low over Southwest Alaska now is moving into interior
portions of the state. Behind the low, winds are gradually coming
down across Bristol Bay, and cooler air is beginning to wrap
around and return to the Kuskokwim Delta. Temperatures are not
expected to move all that much in either direction today, as the
area of clear skies behind it should cancel out any heating from
the weak sun. However, some sunshine is likely again today since
the area happens to be between storms during the daytime.

Having to watch Storm Number 2 now forming well south of the
Alaska Peninsula this morning. This SHOULD be the last of them
though, so here is the breakdown. The storm center is expected to
track east of Sand Point this evening as it tracks nearly due
north. This should allow for much of the Alaska Peninsula zone to
be under northwest winds, which will not be nearly as strong as
this first storm, so warning criteria winds are not expected.
Since the track of the storm once it emerges in Bristol Bay will
be just a bit further east, there is a somewhat better opportunity
for winds nearing hurricane force in terms of the peak gusts to
impact areas south of Iliamna, primarily along Lake Iliamna, as
the winds get funneled through the Kamishak Gap. A combination of
short-duration, mainly unpopulated area of impact, and
significant uncertainty as to whether or not warning criteria will
be met precluded the issuance of any warnings there. Nevertheless
it will still be very windy through the gap starting this evening
through some of the overnight hours, with winds of 40 to 55 mph
with gusts as high as 70 mph possible.

A track slightly further east should allow slightly cooler air to
move into the Kuskokwim Delta as the low tracks northward towards
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley late tonight. This is expected to cause
snowbands to form over or near Bethel overnight, which will
persist into the early afternoon. Winds will be lighter with this
second storm, so at this point blizzard conditions are not
expected. However, blowing snow in 3 to 5 inches of new snow are
expected, and as such any precautions regarding this hazard should
be taken. Further south across the waters of Bristol Bay, once the
low goes by, pressure gradients are significantly weaker behind the
low, and while gusty winds are still expected, warning level winds
are not. Finally, area-wide, temperature-wise they will remain
generally at or above freezing in Bristol Bay for this next storm.
While precipitation type issues add further complexity to the
forecast, at these temperatures it will be the difference between
rain and a wet snow, and relatively little accumulation is
expected outside of the mountains. Some downslope warming may also
help to keep things mainly dry to the lee of the Alaska Range.
Behind the low, cooler air and gusty westerly winds will lead to
snow shower activity developing on the west sides of the Kuskokwim
and Alaska Ranges. This may allow those areas such as King Salmon
and Iliamna that are unlikely to get much accumulation from the
storm itself to get some snow to recoat the ground. Have a Happy
New Year!

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Underneath a broad longwave trough over the Bering, the weather
across the Bering remains very active this morning. A final strong
storm system is developing south of the Alaska Peninsula this
morning and will impact the far eastern Bering with northwesterly
winds once the low tracks into mainland Alaska late tonight into
Tuesday. Otherwise, the remnants of a strong low that brought high
winds to the Western Aleutians a few days ago continues to swirl
across the Central Aleutians, The center is currently passing by
Atka. This low is forecast to track north of the chain today, then
turn more towards the southeast tonight as it gets absorbed into the
eastern Bering/Southwest Alaska low. Behind this Central Aleutians
low is much colder air, causing ocean-effect snow showers over most
of the western Bering. The low, cold air, and an impulse of upper
level energy racing behind the low are expected phase together and
intensify the northwesterly winds behind it. The core of strongest
winds is expected to pass over the Eastern Aleutians late tonight
through Tuesday afternoon, and are currently expected to be strong
enough to produce hurricane force gusts. Thus, a High Wind Watch is
in effect for the area.
After passing the eastern Aleutians, the low will be absorbed into
the stronger low over mainland Alaska, but remnant gusty winds
will move into the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday night.

Never failing to have some kind of weather going on, Tuesday night
into Wednesday will feature a return to a calmer wintertime
pattern with cold air settling over all of the Bering. This will
result in frequent snow showers over most of the area into
Wednesday. Weak, compact Arctic lows are likely to form within the
broad cold air mass over the Bering, which may briefly cause heavier
snow shower activity, potentially to the Pribilofs Wednesday
afternoon and evening, but the models handling of such small systems
is quite bad, and as such it would be premature to speculate further
on any details of those systems. Have a Happy New Year!

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The run to run consistency with the global models continues to be
poor. Generally speaking, anticipate a wet pattern for this forecast
period for the Bering and the southern tier of Alaska with the
possibility of a wintry mix for Southwest Alaska and eventually
creeping into Southcentral Alaska. The forecast period commences
Tuesday January 1st with a broad trough over NE Russia, the Bering
and Aleutians with southwest or southerly flow aloft over most of
mainland Alaska. There is a high amplitude ridge from Hawaii to the
Eastern Pacific to British Columbia. Meanwhile at the surface at 12z
Tuesday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have a low north of Unalaska and
a second surface low near Bristol Bay.
Neither model has either of these lows in the same place, with the
positions ranging 50-10 NM from the other solution. Yesterday's
eye sore courtesy of the GFS is still in the latest run of the
GFS but it is less intense and more plausible. The timing of the
precipitation shield and the gale/storm force winds are dependent
on the intensity and the placement of the lows that develop and on
the track of the low. There was more blending and hedging this
forecast package. Stay tuned for more details with these potential
winter weather storms. Many of the important decisions being made
with these storms are occurring one or two days out because the
models have not been doing well this winter.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 131.
         High Wind Watch 185.

MARINE...Storm Warning 119 120 125 130 131 138 155 170 171 172 173.
Gale Warning 128 132 136 137 139 140 141 150 160 165 174 175 176
177 180.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1059 AM AKST MON DEC 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MIDDLETON ISLAND        59.45N 146.30W
12/30/2018  M56.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0435 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST AKUTAN                  54.14N 165.79W
12/30/2018  M58.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

0546 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KOLIGANEK               59.73N 157.28W
12/30/2018  M60.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

0645 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PLATINUM                59.01N 161.81W
12/30/2018  M62.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

0655 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE NEWENHAM           58.65N 162.07W
12/30/2018  M60.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

0748 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST FALSE PASS              54.84N 163.44W
12/30/2018  M64.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

0840 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST COLD BAY                55.22N 162.74W
12/30/2018  M75.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0844 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SPARREVOHN              61.10N 155.58W
12/30/2018  M82.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

0844 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SAND POINT              55.32N 160.49W
12/30/2018  M82.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

1130 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CHIGNIK                 56.30N 158.42W
12/30/2018  M62.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

1205 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PORTAGE                 60.78N 148.85W
12/31/2018  M94.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0150 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANCHORAGE               61.22N 149.87W
12/31/2018  M82.00 MPH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORTED FROM SMCA2 - SEWARD HWY/MCHUGH CREEK

0200 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST GLEN ALPS               61.10N 149.69W
12/31/2018  M71.00 MPH                          AK   UNKNOWN

            REPORTED FROM GAHA2

0254 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KING SALMON             58.74N 156.54W
12/31/2018  M60.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0336 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ELMENDORF AIR FORCE BAS 61.25N 149.80W
12/31/2018  M51.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

0353 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANCHORAGE               61.22N 149.87W
12/31/2018  M43.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

            REPORTED AT ANCHORAGE INTL

&&

BLUDWIG