Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The focus again today will be severe convection across eastern NM and
gusty virga activity across western NM. Low clouds over portions of
eastern NM late this morning will continue to erode through early
afternoon then transition to scattered TSRA with large hail, damaging
winds, and frequent lightning thru early evening. The best chance
for severe storms will likely focus in the area from near Corona to
Ruidoso eastward to Roswell and Clovis. SHRA is likely to continue
overnight across parts of east central and southeastern NM with
additional development of low cigs and perhaps patchy fog before
sunrise.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...226 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather to continue through at least Wednesday, especially in
the east. The closed low over southern CA has been and will be the
main weather maker. The low will remain stationary today and Monday
then head east across AZ Tuesday and NM Wednesday. There will be
daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, favoring central and
especially eastern areas. There will be the threat for severe weather
from the central mountains to the TX border most afternoons and
evenings through Wednesday. The storm will move east out of NM
Thursday with a weak ridge of high pressure building overhead. This
will bring a drying trend Thursday through Saturday, with Saturday
the only completely dry day in the forecast. A back door cold front
will bring renewed moisture to the east next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern to continue, compliments of the pesky closed
low over southern CA. It will remain stationary through Monday before
moving into AZ Tuesday and passing over NM Wednesday. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms will be noted from the central mountains
to the TX border each afternoon and evening. The closer to the TX
border the better the chance for some severe storms.

Drier air aloft will move into western NM today, with nothing west
of the Divide and only isolated showers and storms from the Divide to
the Rio Grande Valley. But the mountains, eastern highlands and
plains will light up again today well into tonight, starting first in
the mountains during the morning, then moving northeast onto the
highlands and plains during the afternoon and evening. There is the
threat for severe weather from the central mountains to the TX border
this afternoon through this evening. Storms may be slower to form
today since the atmosphere got worked over Saturday. But rest assure
they will form thanks to deep moisture, LI's of minus five to minus
10, and Cape values up to 3000 J/kg across the east.

A similar scenario will follow for Monday and Tuesday with little
convection in the far west, with increasing chances of storms as one
goes east, as well as increasing intensity, including potential
severe storms across all the east both days.

The storm will finally move east and reach NM Wednesday, producing
widespread showers and thunderstorms. A short wave ridge will move
into NM Thursday and will try to hang around for a few days. Friday
will bring showers and storms to just the northern mountains and
northeast. Saturday should be dry area wide, but this will probably
be our only rain-free day through the next seven. A back door cold
front will drop south through the eastern plains Saturday night and
into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday, bringing renewed moisture and an
uptick in precipitation.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level advection of Gulf moisture ahead of a stalled upper low
over southern CA will continue to lead to daily rounds of afternoon
shower and thunderstorm activity through Tuesday. The leading edge
of the moisture will make it as far west as the continental divide
where storms will trend drier with wetter and more widespread
footprints staying along and east of the central mountain chain.
Temperatures dip a bit through mid-week then trend warmer through
the end of the week and into the weekend, all the while with no
major temperature swings expected and remaining near to a few
degrees away from normal for early June. RH recoveries will be fair
to good across the west, and good to excellent across the east.
MinRHs will dip into the low teens along and west of the continental
divide each afternoon, trending drier after Wednesday. High Haines
with Haines6 will remain through Tuesday, focusing over the west.
Prevailing winds however will remain tame for late Spring, thus no
critical fire weather is forecast.

24/RJH

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1217 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

NMZ526-539-021845-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains-
1217 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

At 1216 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glencoe, or 13 miles east of Ruidoso, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glencoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 10532 3331 10556 3345 10543 3330 10525
      3328 10532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 229DEG 11KT 3332 10545

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1244 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

NMZ522-524-021915-
South Central Highlands-Estancia Valley-
1244 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1244 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Gran Quivira, or 24 miles south of Estancia, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Willard.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3436 10623 3464 10608 3447 10584 3441 10589
      3430 10615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 222DEG 21KT 3441 10611

Guyer

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