Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
602 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms over eastern NM will
gradually exit NM to the east during the late evening, while isolated
showers and storms continue as far west as the continental divide.
Widespread low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions will develop
across the eastern plains tonight into Sunday morning, probably
spreading as far northwest as SAF and LAM. A gusty east canyon wind
is expected in the central valley tonight. The potential exists for
35 kt gap winds at ABQ during the early evening. Another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms is expected Sunday afternoon and
evening along and east of the central mountain chain, with some
isolated and drier variety storms as far west as the continental
divide.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019...
.UPDATE...
Updated zones to expand the Severe Thunderstorm Watch onto the Chaves
and De Baca County Plains. We are considering a Watch for Quay,
Curry and Roosevelt Counties during the early evening as well.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...218 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
A stormy weather pattern is in place that will continue through
Wednesday, with storms favoring the eastern half of the state. Severe
thunderstorms are likely this evening, then again Sunday and Monday
across eastern New Mexico. Far western portions of the state will
remain warm and dry. Look for a warming and drying trend toward the
end of the work week, possibly hitting 90 degrees for the first time
this calendar year in Albuquerque.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture ramped-up quickly overnight in response to an approaching
and slow moving Pacific low, currently over southern California.
Convection got off to an early start this morning and we issued our
first warning prior to noon. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect
for much of central and northern New Mexico and a severe thunderstorm
watch may be issued shortly for portions of the east central and
southeast plains as convection propagates east toward the TX border
and encounters a more unstable airmass. Look for more of the same
Sunday with severe thunderstorms likely across eastern NM, although
convective initiation may be slightly further east as a dry slot
works in from the southwest. More of the same again Monday, except
the dry slot may inch a bit further east. That said, there are
significant differences between the 12Z NAM and GFS with the
sharpening dryline and mixing of dry air aloft that impact the
westward placement of convective initiation. The NAM holds onto
moisture further west and our forecast is a blend of the two, with
lower PoPs across central NM as a hedge. Storm motion will slow on
Tuesday as the upper low approaches from over southern AZ, with
diffluence aloft favoring longer-lived deep convection and potential
for locally heavy rainfall. This is especially true from the south
central mountains east to the TX border Tuesday afternoon/evening in
the deeper gulf moisture. The upper low will move over on Wedesday,
with more storms favoring the eastern plains.

A shortwave ridge will mover overhead Thursday and we'll end the
work week with a warming/drying trend. There are some differences
among the 12Z medium range model solutions with regard to the
amplification of an upper high over northern Mexico toward the end of
the week, but if the GFS is right, then it will start to feel like
June and Albuquerque may start hitting up around 90 degrees for a
change, well past the average first 90 degree day date.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level return flow into eastern NM ahead of a slow-moving upper
level low approaching from the west will lead to daily round of
showers and storms over central and eastern NM through Wednesday.
Storms will range from dry near the Cont Dvd to wet/dry within the
Rio Grande Valley to very wet with potential severe over eastern NM
each afternoon. Temperatures through this period will be warmer than
the past couple weeks but actually close to normal for early June.
Vent rates will be excellent in most areas with high Haines for
central and western NM. Overnight recoveries will be highest over
eastern NM where daily wetting rainfall impacts the area. There are
no significant winds to highlight through Tuesday and the critical
fire weather threat will remain low. The main upper level storm will
shift overhead Wednesday with more widespread wetting rainfall for
central and eastern NM along with slightly cooler temperatures.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
254 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ501>540-021100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
254 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon and evening across
eastern New Mexico. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main
threats with these storms. Additionally, thunderstorms west of the
central mountain chain may also result in gusty and erratic winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through mid
week across eastern New Mexico. Some storms will be severe with large
hail and damaging winds, though a tornado is also possible. The
potential for severe weather is greatest through Monday. Also, any
area that sees repeated rounds of heavy rainfall will be at risk for
localized flooding.

Meanwhile, across central and western New Mexico, a mix of wet and
dry storms may produce gusty and erratic winds on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
617 PM MDT SAT JUN 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             20 W ROSWELL            33.37N 104.88W
06/01/2019  M1.00 INCH       CHAVES             NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201902258

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
625 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ504-020115-
Northwest Highlands-
625 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 623 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lindrith, or 22 miles northwest of Cuba, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lindrith, NM Highway 595 and NM Highway 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3641 10683 3639 10681 3638 10683 3635 10685
      3618 10714 3631 10729 3658 10702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 226DEG 21KT 3630 10715

54

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
628 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ534-020100-
Quay County-
628 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN QUAY COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

At 628 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ragland, or 25 miles south of Tucumcari, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quay, House, Ragland, Mcalister and Forrest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3469 10358 3469 10370 3467 10371 3462 10402
      3485 10405 3504 10366 3470 10351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 239DEG 17KT 3480 10384

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
659 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NMZ534>536-020145-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-Quay County-
659 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROOSEVELT...SOUTHEASTERN
QUAY AND CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 658 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Quay to 8 miles southwest of Melrose.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clovis, Portales, Quay, Farwell, Texico, Melrose, Floyd, Grady, Saint
Vrain and Ragland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3426 10376 3495 10383 3497 10310 3445 10304
      3413 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 278DEG 34KT 3488 10378 3433 10373

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