Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
The focus for shower or thunderstorm activity overnight and Wednesday
morning will be in northeastern New Mexico where a surface boundary
is moving in. A few lingering showers are also struggling along and
near the Continental Divide of western New Mexico, but these should
be rathershort-lived and weak with only localized rain and wind
gusts. Scattered storms will redevelop Wednesday, extending over the
Gila and southwestern mountains and also along and east of the
central mountain chain. Thunderstorm hazards will include the typical
downburst wind threats along with reduced visibility/ceiling during
downpours. A few stronger storms could produce larger hail in
portions of east central to northeastern New Mexico Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms will focus over eastern New Mexico through Friday
while much of western New Mexico remains dry. A few of the storms
over eastern New Mexico may become strong with locally heavy rain,
strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning. The best shot for storms
in the Rio Grande Valley will be Wednesday and Thursday mainly south
of Santa Fe. Unseasonably strong high pressure is then expected to
develop over New Mexico by the weekend which would bring near record
heat and very few storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest guidance advertised some rather big changes to the near-
term forecast due to subtle convective features within the overall
pattern across the Rockies. A few strong storms have developed over
Union County as northwest flow aloft interacts with moist, unstable
southeast low level flow. This activity will move into the TX
panhandle thru the evening. 12z-18Z model guidance is now showing a
strong MCS rolling southward down the Front Range tonight which will
force a moist low level boundary into eastern NM Wednesday morning.
The 12Z HREF/NAM show robust convective coverage over the east
Wednesday afternoon with moist, upslope flow along and east of the
central mt chain. There are concerns regarding available instability
in the wake of the MCS however it will have occurred early enough in
the day to allow for more storms by late afternoon. A couple model
members indicate storms firing up from the ABQ metro area southward
late Wednesday but significant dry air aloft may inhibit convective
initiation.

The changes advertised through Wednesday night will effect how the
convective pattern evolves into Thursday. The latest guidance shows
much greater coverage along and south of I-40 east of the Cont Dvd
Thursday and Friday. Confidence is still low on how wet storms will
actually be within central and western NM due to significant deep
layer dry air currently in place across much of the southwest CONUS.

Despite model struggles in the short and medium range, there is
improving consistency on an unseasonably strong upper level high
taking hold of AZ and NM starting this weekend. The 12Z ECMWF shows
a 599dm H5 high with very little convective activity and near record
high temperatures. The 12Z GFS shows a strong upper high as well but
continues to recycle moisture through early next week. Given the
more favorable drier ECMWF solutions this season the extended PoPs
have been trimmed back to slight chance in most areas for now.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Best chances for wetting thunderstorm rainfall this evening will be
in the eastern plains with excellent overnight humidity recoveries.
Wednesday will likely be the most active day of the week, with
scattered showers / storms favoring much of the area excluding the
Four Corners region. In fact, some of the activity from the
northwest mountains to the Continental Divide in west central NM may
be a mixture of wet and drier storms, and this may result in gusty
outflow winds and small wetting footprints. Meanwhile, high Haines
values can be expected across NMZ101 and portions of NMZ102. A
downtick in activity will likely occur over northern and central NM
for Thursday, with westerly flow aloft reducing precipitation
chances further for Friday. This will result in warmer readings and
lower humidities through the rest of the week. Minimum RH values
will drop below 15 percent on Sat/Sun. For early next week, a strong
high centroid will be centered over the Land of Enchantment,
suppressing moisture advection and precip chances.   KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
511 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

NMZ501>540-141130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
511 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and storms across eastern New Mexico will continue to
diminish as they move east toward the Texas border this evening.
Brief heavy rain and hail are possible until around sunset. Isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to move into the
northeast quarter of the state during the early morning hours
Wednesday as a backdoor cold front moves into the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm coverage will increase Wednesday. Storm motions will be
slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized
areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older
burn scars. A few strong storms may also produce hail and wind gusts
to 50 mph across the eastern half of the the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

33

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1258 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ530-140730-
Union County-
1258 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM
MDT...

At 1257 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Mount Dora, or 18 miles southwest of Clayton, moving
east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Union
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 10363 3645 10355 3638 10313 3607 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 287DEG 15KT 3629 10345

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
121 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ530-534-140745-
Union County-Quay County-
121 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN QUAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM MDT...

At 121 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Hayden, or 11 miles southwest of Amistad, moving east
at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Quay
and southeastern Union Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 10312 3574 10338 3582 10337 3591 10334
      3587 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0721Z 288DEG 11KT 3581 10332

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
128 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ530-531-140800-
Union County-Harding County-
128 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HARDING AND SOUTHEASTERN
UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM MDT...

At 128 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Hayden, or 21 miles northwest of Amistad, moving
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hayden and Sedan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 10352 3630 10343 3625 10307 3591 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 288DEG 11KT 3616 10339

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
141 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ527-528-530-140815-
Far Northeast Highlands-Union County-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
141 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL UNION AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM MDT...

At 140 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Farley, or 26 miles southwest of Des Moines,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Farley.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 10426 3657 10409 3645 10374 3623 10411
TIME...MOT...LOC 0740Z 320DEG 10KT 3646 10412

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
147 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ530-534-140830-
Union County-Quay County-
147 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN QUAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM MDT...

At 147 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Amistad, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nara Visa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 10338 3577 10338 3591 10332 3588 10304
      3556 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 287DEG 7KT 3581 10327

24