Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Albuquerque, NM

314 
WGUS75 KABQ 142355
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMC007-150030-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190815T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
555 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY...

At 554 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. One half inch of rain has fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cimarron, Ute Park and Philmont Scout Ranch. 

This will impact the Ute Park fire burn scar including but not
limited to Highway 64 from Ute Park to Cimarron, the Cimarron
River and the Philmont Scout Ranch backcountry as well as Ute Park
including Hummingbird Lane and Cimarron.
Some areas north of Highway 64 that will be impacted include State
Road 204, Bear and Dean Canyons, Ponil Creek, and Turkey
Creek. Some areas south of Highway 64 that will be impacted include
Webster and Cimarroncito Reservoirs, Cimarroncito Creek,
Vaca Pond, Deer Lake, Ute Gulch and Grouse and Sawmill Canyons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 10492 3650 10484 3646 10475 3641 10470
      3638 10461 3637 10461 3638 10467 3638 10469
      3646 10479 3646 10485 3648 10492 3647 10505
      3651 10512 3653 10513 3656 10512 3660 10500

$$

33

417 
WGUS75 KABQ 150021
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
621 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMC007-150030-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-190815T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
621 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 630 PM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3658 10492 3650 10484 3646 10475 3641 10470
      3638 10461 3637 10461 3638 10467 3638 10469
      3646 10479 3646 10485 3648 10492 3647 10505
      3651 10512 3653 10513 3656 10512 3660 10500

$$

33

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Storms stretching from the Continental Divide to the central
mountain chain this afternoon will continue to track into the
eastern plains this evening, where a few could become strong to
severe with large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm coverage
trends downward Thursday and Friday as temperatures warm a little
across much of the state. Even drier conditions expected for the
weekend when portions of the east central and southeast may
experience near record highs. Storms could return to northern and
central New Mexico early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air continues to reside over portions of northwest New Mexico,
while the boundary that pushed to the Continental Divide was the
focus for storm development this morning and early this afternoon.
With the upper high centered over western NM/eastern AZ, storms will
be moving to the east and southeast. Expect that the majority of the
current activity will be focused along and south of I-40 and along
and east of I-25 later this afternoon and early this evening,
propagating into the eastern plains, where a few strong to severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible. Both the
RAP13 and HRRR hold onto some precipitation after midnight over the
eastern plains, but the RAP13 has much more lingering after midnight
over the west central and southwest, so will have to monitor for
this potential.

Drier air is still expected to make additional progress over
northern and central NM Thursday and Friday, as the flow aloft
trends more westerly. Storms will favor the southern high terrain
where moisture will be tougher to sweep out. High temperatures will
warm a few degrees and overnight lows over some of the northwest and
north central should be a bit cooler. The weekend appears even drier
with a dearth of storms. The southwest mountains would be the most
likely place to see a few storms. There could be some near record to
record highs over the east central and southeast, with Roswell on
track to experience several days in a row of 100 degree plus
temperatures, topping out on Sunday at 105.

The upper air pattern changes early next week, reverting to a ridge
centered over NM. Some moisture may seep back into the region, and
high temperatures may cool a few degrees over the eastern plains as
the the GFS drifts the center of circulation towards CO by next
Tuesday. The ECMWF positions the high center over AZ by the middle
of next week. Either way, monsoon storms will likely remain fewer in
number for mid August.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, dry and unstable conditions prevail today across far northwest
New Mexico, but a backdoor front pushed west to the Continental
Divide this morning and brought added moisture and cooler
temperatures to central and eastern portions of the state. The added
moisture is resulting in a round of wetting storms, which will
impact much of central and northeast New Mexico this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, a warming and drying trend is forecast for at
least the northern half of the state over the next several days as
the westerlies penetrate further east. This will result in an
expansion of hot, dry and unstable conditions through at least
Sunday as the upper high sets up south of the state. The upper high
is forecast to move to near the Four Corners or southern Colorado
next week, which may allow moisture to come up from the south and
result in the return of chances for wetting storms. Until then,
expect above to well above normal temperatures and worsening
humidity recovery.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Conditions have improved to VFR at KLVS and KROW and will otherwise
remain VFR across all of northern and central NM, except for short-
lived MVFR conditions in/near showers and storms this afternoon and
evening. The terminals most likely to be impacted by storms today are
KSAF and KLVS, followed by KAEG, KTCC, KROW and KABQ...and generally
in that order in terms of forecast confidence. Large hail and
dangerous/erratic winds are possible with storms today, especially
near KSAF and KLVS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  96  59  95 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  88  48  87 /   0  10   5   5
Cuba............................  57  89  57  87 /   5  10   5   5
Gallup..........................  51  93  51  90 /   5  10  10   5
El Morro........................  49  86  49  86 /  10  20  10  10
Grants..........................  50  88  51  88 /  10  20  10  10
Quemado.........................  54  84  55  87 /  20  30  20  20
Datil...........................  52  82  52  85 /  20  40  20  20
Glenwood........................  64  93  64  94 /  20  30  20  10
Chama...........................  48  82  49  81 /   5  10  10  10
Los Alamos......................  61  87  62  86 /  20  20  10  10
Pecos...........................  56  85  56  86 /  20  10  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  48  82  48  82 /  10  20  10  20
Red River.......................  44  74  44  74 /  10  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  44  77  44  77 /  20  20  10  20
Taos............................  50  87  50  87 /  10  10  10  10
Mora............................  53  83  52  84 /  20  20  10  20
Espanola........................  57  92  57  91 /  10  10   5   5
Santa Fe........................  61  87  60  87 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  62  90  62  90 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  90  66  91 /  20  10  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  91  67  93 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  93  64  95 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  92  63  93 /  10  10   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  65  93  64  95 /  10  10  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  64  92  64  93 /  10  10   5   5
Socorro.........................  67  93  67  96 /  20  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  86  58  87 /  20  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  61  88  61  90 /  20  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  89  53  91 /  20  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  57  86  57  87 /  20  20  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  60  86  60  88 /  30  20  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  64  88  64  91 /  20  20  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  57  78  58  83 /  30  40  30  20
Capulin.........................  55  87  54  88 /  30  20  10  20
Raton...........................  56  90  55  92 /  20  10  10  20
Springer........................  55  90  53  92 /  20  10  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  54  85  53  87 /  20  10  10  10
Clayton.........................  59  93  59  94 /  30  20  20  10
Roy.............................  56  89  57  92 /  30  10  20  10
Conchas.........................  62  97  63 100 /  30  10  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  62  96  61  99 /  30  10  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  64  98  65 100 /  30   5  20   5
Clovis..........................  64  93  64  96 /  30  10  20  10
Portales........................  65  94  65  98 /  30  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  66  95  65  99 /  30  10  20  10
Roswell.........................  71  99  69 102 /  30  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  62  90  61  93 /  30  40  20  20
Elk.............................  60  85  60  88 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
314 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ501>540-151100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
314 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for storms developing along the central
mountain chain this afternoon to become severe as they move into
eastern New Mexico late in the afternoon and evening. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats with any severe storm.

Meanwhile, storms across west-central and southwestern New Mexico
will likely be more dry than wet, producing gusty winds and dry
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Afternoon storm coverage will trend down Thursday and Friday, however
storms will still be capable of producing hail, lightning, and strong
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the
National Weather Service in Albuquerque via the spotter hot-line
(888)386-7637, or via social media using the hashtag #nmwx.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1238 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ511-141915-
Jemez Mountains-
1238 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA AND
NORTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1238 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Youngsville, or 18 miles east of Cuba, moving east at
15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Rio
Arriba and northeastern Sandoval Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 10672 3609 10666 3607 10634 3583 10653
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 283DEG 13KT 3603 10662

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
146 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ506-507-142015-
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-
146 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CIBOLA AND
NORTHEASTERN CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 146 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles west of Acoma Pueblo, or 24 miles south of Grants, moving east
at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Cibola and northeastern Catron Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 10817 3501 10805 3500 10755 3451 10774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 279DEG 16KT 3482 10799

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
150 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ508-142015-
Southwest Mountains-
150 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SOCORRO AND EAST
CENTRAL CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 150 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of National Radio Astronomy Observatory, or 14 miles
northeast of Datil, moving south at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Socorro and east central Catron Counties.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 10774 3435 10753 3414 10742 3408 10774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 347DEG 6KT 3426 10762

33

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

NMZ507-508-520-142115-
Southwest Mountains-West Central Highlands-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
250 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

At 250 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Magdalena, or 27 miles northwest of Socorro, moving
east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lemitar, San Acacia, Chamizal and Alamo.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 156 and 165.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 10752 3437 10756 3454 10694 3414 10687
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 259DEG 25KT 3430 10728

33