Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tucson, AZ

041 
WWUS55 KTWC 292248
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
348 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

AZC019-023-292315-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180729T2315Z/
Pima-Santa Cruz-
348 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 347 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Green Valley,
moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Green Valley, Tubac, Amado and Arivaca Junction. 

This includes Interstate 19 between mile markers 24 and 39.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 11093 3164 11097 3162 11114 3185 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 133DEG 7KT 3179 11105 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KD

439 
WWUS55 KTWC 292315
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
415 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

AZC019-023-292323-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180729T2315Z/
Pima-Santa Cruz-
415 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A flood advisory remains in effect between Green Valley and Amado 
until 530 pm. Radar estimates and rain gauges indicate between 1 and 
2 inches of rain fell in some areas this afternoon.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tucson.

LAT...LON 3185 11093 3164 11097 3162 11114 3185 11108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 107DEG 5KT 3174 11103 

$$

KD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Sun Jul 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deep moisture will allow for continued thunderstorm
chances today through the upcoming work week. This will also result
in little variation in afternoon daytime temperatures, remaining
near average for late July/early August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper weather pattern this afternoon is defined by
a NW-SE oriented upper high centered over NW Arizona, and a
departing remnant storm feature moving NW thru SRN California. The
worked-over or cool boundary layer in the wake of the convection
last night has limited thunderstorm activity across the nrn and
western portions of the CWA this afternoon. The areas that were
generally quiet yesterday have developed early this afternoon. In
general, storms developed over the higher terrain to the southeast
of Tucson, mainly in Cochise and Santa Cruz counties have moved
slowly west at 10-15 mph into the valleys. We have seen a few strong
storms, one near KALK produced a wind gust to 48 kts, but in general
these storms have had a tough time organizing into a larger complex.
The latest KEMX radar imagery indicates that storms are beginning to
push WSW out of the White Mountains this afternoon...but may
struggle as they push into the Upper Gila River Valley where the
combination of surface dewpoints in the low 50s and a more stable
environment seen on satellite extending from Graham county...into
Pinal and SW Maricopa counties. The 29/20Z HRRR, 29/18Z UofA WRF-NAM
and 29/00Z all indicate storms developing along the rim and
extending into SW NM late this afternoon...then track west across SE
Arizona this evening.

Looking forward, the upper high remains quasi-stationary this week
as it slowly meanders from NW AZ/SRN NV toward the four corners.
This favorable Monsoon pattern will result in scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms across SE Arizona. Since a
four corners position is the most favorable for thunderstorm
coverage across our CWA, we will likely have a slight uptick in
coverage beginning Thursday and persisting into next weekend.

Otherwise, there will be little difference in afternoon daytime
temperatures this week, remaining a few degrees from normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 31/00Z
SCT-BKN cigs 8-12kft AGL generally to the SE of KTUS this afternoon
with scattered -TSRA/-SHRA expected in the vicinity of KDUG and
KOLS. Additional storms will develop and move off of the White
Mountain region late this afternoon and this evening, tracking
across the eastern portions of Southeast Arizona...possibly
impacting KTUS with -TSRA this evening. As for winds, expect
light/diurnally driven at all sites aside from thunderstorm induced
wind gusts to 40-45 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain in place through
next weekend with daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast.
Humidities will recover well each night and only drop to around 20-
30 percent each afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm induced gusts,
expect typical diurnal trends with speeds of 15 mph or less.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1251 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

AZZ503-507-513-292015-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
1251 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHEASTERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM MST...

At 1251 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of Huachuca City, or 17 miles west of Sierra Vista,
moving west at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Patagonia, Elgin and Canelo.

LAT...LON 3140 11067 3154 11076 3169 11048 3156 11040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 087DEG 13KT 3154 11058

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
208 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

AZZ507-513-292145-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
208 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND EASTERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MST...

At 208 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sierra Vista Southeast, or 14 miles southeast of Sierra Vista, moving
west at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Sierra Vista Southeast, Palominas, Coronado National
Memorial, Hereford, Nicksville, Parker Canyon Lake and Ramsey Canyon
Preserve.

LAT...LON 3148 11047 3147 11010 3133 11009 3133 11045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 083DEG 17KT 3137 11019

MJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
251 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

AZZ509-510-292215-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
251 PM MST SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND CENTRAL
GREENLEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MST...

At 249 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Morenci moving southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Strong
outflow winds will be possible in advance of precipitation.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton and Morenci.

LAT...LON 3333 10930 3321 10909 3296 10924 3312 10950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 036DEG 8KT 3321 10923

RH