Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to affect the northwest
Arkansas sites this morning, with lesser coverage of showers and
storms at the northeast Oklahoma sites. Additional storms will
develop this afternoon and may affect the northwest Arkansas and
southeast Oklahoma sites. VFR conditions will prevail outside of
thunderstorm areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns revolve around continued shower and
thunderstorm chances through the weekend, and the ongoing
potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather.

Thunderstorms from this past evening in parts of Kansas have
diminished in intensity upon moving into parts of northeast
Oklahoma, due to lower instability across most of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rainfall and lightning can be
expected with this activity through mid morning as it moves across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely during the afternoon
in the vicinity of front expected to be positioned near Interstate
40 mid to late afternoon. A few of these could pose an isolated
damaging wind threat into the evening hours. Thunderstorm
potential will diminish from north to south into Saturday before
increasing once again from the southwest Saturday night and Sunday
as a strong upper low swings into the central Plains. The heaviest
rainfall with this feature should affect parts of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas during the day Sunday, with
lighter amounts continuing across portions of the area through
Monday.

North to northwest flow aloft will dominate the weather pattern
through much of next week, bringing unseasonably cool weather and
dry conditions.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
516 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
516 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northwest Arkansas and East Central and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas and East Central and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue early this
morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Severe weather is not expected with these storms.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon near a weak frontal boundary which is expected to be in
the vicinity of Interstate 40 this afternoon. Some of these storms
will be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main
severe weather threat. The storms will likely move southeast into
parts of southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with storms this
afternoon and evening.

Afternoon heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees are
expected across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
today.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will remain possible across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas Saturday. Storm chances will increase area
wide late Saturday night and Sunday as a strong upper level storm
system passes just to our north. A cold front will move through
the area Monday bringing an end to thunderstorm chances.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
918 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

OKZ068-069-171500-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-
918 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ADAIR AND CENTRAL
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

At 917 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of Scraper to 4 miles south of Peggs to 4
miles east of Wagoner. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Westville...
Hulbert...                        Watts...
Eldon...                          Proctor...
Christie...                       Scraper...
Baron...                          Ballard...
Lost City...

LAT...LON 3610 9455 3591 9452 3587 9456 3579 9495
      3597 9528 3599 9525 3599 9523 3602 9523
      3616 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 288DEG 30KT 3611 9496 3602 9508 3598 9529

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
919 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

OKZ057-058-171500-
Craig OK-Ottawa OK-
919 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAIG AND NORTHERN
OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

At 919 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast of
Edna, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Commerce...
Quapaw...                         Welch...
Bluejacket...                     Hollow...
Pyramid Corners...                Centralia...
Centrailia...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 308 and 317.

LAT...LON 3693 9469 3664 9534 3684 9543 3694 9543
      3694 9541 3700 9541 3700 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 293DEG 17KT 3695 9528

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
926 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

OKZ066-070-071-171500-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-McIntosh OK-
926 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH...WEST
CENTRAL MUSKOGEE AND EAST CENTRAL OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM
CDT...

At 925 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles northeast of
Morris, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Morris...                         Boynton...
Council Hill...                   Wainwright...
Hitchita...                       Eram...

LAT...LON 3559 9592 3571 9586 3568 9553 3546 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1425Z 288DEG 17KT 3564 9581

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
949 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-072-171515-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
949 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

At 949 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Adair State
Park, moving southeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Stilwell...                       Cedarville...
Mountainburg...                   Natural Dam...
Winslow...                        Chester...
Rudy...                           Adair State Park...
Blackburn...                      Maryetta...
Lee Creek...                      Baron...
Short...                          Devils Den State Park...
Lake Fort Smith...                Strickler...
Figure Five...                    Uniontown...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 8.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 4.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 23 and 44.

LAT...LON 3575 9401 3541 9434 3542 9435 3545 9440
      3545 9442 3583 9481 3598 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1449Z 303DEG 50KT 3582 9461

Lacy