Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to affect the northwest
Arkansas sites this morning, with lesser coverage of showers and
storms at the northeast Oklahoma sites. Additional storms will
develop this afternoon and may affect the northwest Arkansas and
southeast Oklahoma sites. VFR conditions will prevail outside of
thunderstorm areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns revolve around continued shower and
thunderstorm chances through the weekend, and the ongoing
potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather.

Thunderstorms from this past evening in parts of Kansas have
diminished in intensity upon moving into parts of northeast
Oklahoma, due to lower instability across most of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rainfall and lightning can be
expected with this activity through mid morning as it moves across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely during the afternoon
in the vicinity of front expected to be positioned near Interstate
40 mid to late afternoon. A few of these could pose an isolated
damaging wind threat into the evening hours. Thunderstorm
potential will diminish from north to south into Saturday before
increasing once again from the southwest Saturday night and Sunday
as a strong upper low swings into the central Plains. The heaviest
rainfall with this feature should affect parts of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas during the day Sunday, with
lighter amounts continuing across portions of the area through
Monday.

North to northwest flow aloft will dominate the weather pattern
through much of next week, bringing unseasonably cool weather and
dry conditions.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
516 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
516 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northwest Arkansas and East Central and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest Arkansas and East Central and Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue early this
morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Severe weather is not expected with these storms.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon near a weak frontal boundary which is expected to be in
the vicinity of Interstate 40 this afternoon. Some of these storms
will be strong to severe, with damaging winds being the main
severe weather threat. The storms will likely move southeast into
parts of southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon or early evening.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with storms this
afternoon and evening.

Afternoon heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees are
expected across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
today.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will remain possible across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas Saturday. Storm chances will increase area
wide late Saturday night and Sunday as a strong upper level storm
system passes just to our north. A cold front will move through
the area Monday bringing an end to thunderstorm chances.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
651 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

OKZ057-058-061>063-171230-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
651 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN ROGERS...
NORTHERN DELAWARE...WESTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHERN MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL
730 AM CDT...

At 651 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles northeast of Narcissa to near Foyil. Movement
was southeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Jay...                            Pryor...
Pryor Creek...                    Grove...
Chelsea...                        Salina...
Fairland...                       Afton...
Langley...                        Adair...
Welch...                          Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Spavinaw...
Foyil...                          Bluejacket...
Disney...                         Big Cabin...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 255 and 309.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9462 3651 9462 3620 9539 3649 9564
      3660 9550 3660 9543 3665 9543 3700 9496
      3700 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1151Z 316DEG 21KT 3683 9490 3643 9554

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
721 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

ARZ001-002-OKZ063-068-069-171300-
Carroll AR-Benton AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
721 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...
SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

At 718 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles west of Seligman to 7 miles north of Twin
Oaks. Movement was south at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Springdale...                     Rogers...
Bentonville...                    Siloam Springs...
Jay...                            Eureka Springs...
Bella Vista...                    Lowell...
Pea Ridge...                      Gentry...
Bethel Heights...                 Gravette...
Cave Springs...                   Decatur...
South West City...                West Siloam Springs...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Highfill...                       Garfield...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 76 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The outflow boundary has moved ahead of the rain so expect gusty
winds before the rain starts. Torrential rainfall is also occurring
with these storms, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive
your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 9357 3621 9423 3622 9433 3618 9434
      3603 9488 3635 9500 3651 9462 3650 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1218Z 339DEG 20KT 3653 9404 3630 9489