Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
402 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue until around
sunset before dissipating. Damaging downburst winds will remain a
threat with any storm for at least the next couple hours. A repeat
performance is expected Saturday afternoon, with lesser chances
near the Kansas and Missouri borders to the north of a weak
frontal boundary that will drift south to near Highway 412 by
Saturday afternoon.

A closed upper low to our west will then become the main influence
on our weather from Sunday into the middle of next week.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially from
Monday into early Wednesday as this system drifts slowly
northeast. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible during this
time period as well. Clouds and rain will help keep daytime
temperatures well below the seasonal normals early next week.

Unsettled weather looks to continue late next week, with continued
chances of showers and thunderstorms, although coverage should
lessen by the end of the forecast period.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  93  71  88 /  20  30  20  40
FSM   72  93  71  89 /  20  30  20  40
MLC   70  90  69  86 /  20  30  20  40
BVO   66  92  65  89 /  20  20  20  40
FYV   65  89  64  86 /  20  30  20  40
BYV   68  91  67  87 /  20  30  20  40
MKO   70  91  69  86 /  20  30  20  40
MIO   69  92  68  89 /  20  20  20  40
F10   70  90  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
HHW   71  88  70  86 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1145 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma And Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid to late Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Arkansas River Valley of West
		   Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas mainly this afternoon and
evening as another weak surface frontal boundary approaches from the
north. Daytime heating combined with a very unstable atmosphere will
allow the potential for a few severe storms with damaging downburst
winds possible. Storm chances will remain possible overnight...
though much of the activity looks to weaken by mid evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

Also this afternoon...heat index values in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees will be possible across much of Eastern Oklahoma and
West Central Arkansas...with parts of Northeast Oklahoma and the
Arkansas River Valley of West Central Arkansas having the greater
potential of near 100 degrees.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to remain over the
Southern Plains into next week. The result will be additional
thunderstorm chances each day across the region. The greater
thunderstorm potential looks to be during the first half of next
week as the area of low pressure looks to begin pushing through
the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
437 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

OKZ068-102200-
Cherokee OK-
437 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Peggs, drifting west.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Peggs...                          Lost City...

LAT...LON 3605 9497 3593 9502 3597 9517 3609 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 106DEG 9KT 3601 9509

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
448 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

OKZ076-102215-
Le Flore OK-
448 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Talimena State Park. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Le
Flore County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3470 9492 3483 9493 3484 9476 3471 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 095DEG 4KT 3477 9485

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
451 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

OKZ064-066-102215-
Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-
451 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CREEK AND
NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 450 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles south of Mounds to 6 miles northwest of Beggs.
Movement was south at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Beggs...
Mounds...                         Preston...
Liberty...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3586 9623 3588 9603 3586 9603 3586 9596
      3568 9588 3565 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 357DEG 14KT 3582 9606 3582 9614

Lacy