Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
402 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue until around
sunset before dissipating. Damaging downburst winds will remain a
threat with any storm for at least the next couple hours. A repeat
performance is expected Saturday afternoon, with lesser chances
near the Kansas and Missouri borders to the north of a weak
frontal boundary that will drift south to near Highway 412 by
Saturday afternoon.

A closed upper low to our west will then become the main influence
on our weather from Sunday into the middle of next week.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially from
Monday into early Wednesday as this system drifts slowly
northeast. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible during this
time period as well. Clouds and rain will help keep daytime
temperatures well below the seasonal normals early next week.

Unsettled weather looks to continue late next week, with continued
chances of showers and thunderstorms, although coverage should
lessen by the end of the forecast period.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  93  71  88 /  20  30  20  40
FSM   72  93  71  89 /  20  30  20  40
MLC   70  90  69  86 /  20  30  20  40
BVO   66  92  65  89 /  20  20  20  40
FYV   65  89  64  86 /  20  30  20  40
BYV   68  91  67  87 /  20  30  20  40
MKO   70  91  69  86 /  20  30  20  40
MIO   69  92  68  89 /  20  20  20  40
F10   70  90  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
HHW   71  88  70  86 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1145 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma And Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid to late Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Arkansas River Valley of West
		   Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Mid Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas mainly this afternoon and
evening as another weak surface frontal boundary approaches from the
north. Daytime heating combined with a very unstable atmosphere will
allow the potential for a few severe storms with damaging downburst
winds possible. Storm chances will remain possible overnight...
though much of the activity looks to weaken by mid evening with the
loss of daytime heating.

Also this afternoon...heat index values in the mid 90s to around
100 degrees will be possible across much of Eastern Oklahoma and
West Central Arkansas...with parts of Northeast Oklahoma and the
Arkansas River Valley of West Central Arkansas having the greater
potential of near 100 degrees.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to remain over the
Southern Plains into next week. The result will be additional
thunderstorm chances each day across the region. The greater
thunderstorm potential looks to be during the first half of next
week as the area of low pressure looks to begin pushing through
the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

OKZ059-102045-
Pawnee OK-
309 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

At 308 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ralston, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Ralston...
Skedee...

LAT...LON 3647 9690 3647 9688 3649 9685 3654 9682
      3656 9678 3654 9673 3650 9672 3648 9670
      3644 9672 3642 9669 3642 9663 3624 9669
      3632 9693 3633 9693 3633 9695 3635 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 024DEG 11KT 3648 9675

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

OKZ064-102115-
Creek OK-
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CREEK COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 338 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
Kellyville. This storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Kellyville...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 202 and 210.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3608 9627 3608 9618 3602 9610 3593 9623
      3602 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 135DEG 1KT 3602 9623

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

OKZ054-102115-
Osage OK-
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 339 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
Kaw City, moving south at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Osage
County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3668 9703 3669 9681 3656 9676 3655 9681
      3648 9687 3646 9698 3649 9701 3652 9701
      3653 9696 3655 9692 3655 9690 3658 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 354DEG 5KT 3662 9692

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
352 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

OKZ075-102115-
Latimer OK-
352 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LATIMER COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

At 352 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Damon. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Damon...
Panola...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3497 9523 3481 9513 3471 9529 3490 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 060DEG 3KT 3486 9526

Lacy

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