Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms have formed across Madison and Carroll
counties and will gradually drift west. Additional storms will
form this afternoon, with at least a low chance of affecting the
western AR terminals. Main aviation impacts will be wind gusts as
the storms collapse and reduced visibility.

Other than this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected for the
rest of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1046 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Latest observational data suggest that locations across far
northeast Oklahoma are reporting temperatures 3-5 degrees higher
than yesterday, with low to mid 70 dewpoints in place. This will
result in heat index values very near 105F this afternoon, so we
have added the 3 additional counties in northeast Oklahoma to the
ongoing heat advisory.

Satellite imagery shows an easterly wave moving across Arkansas,
which will likely give a boost to afternoon thunderstorm
development. Increased pops across western Arkansas and expanded
them a bit west into far southeast Oklahoma based on latest model
solutions and expected storm movement. Airmass is uncapped and
unstable, with PW values near 2" as observed from the morning
sounding from Little Rock. Storms are expected to form this
afternoon in the favored terrain areas of western Arkansas and
propagate to the west, given very little shear. Instability will
be high, so an isolated strong or severe storm isn't out of the
question.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>072-074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across Carroll, Madison
and Washington counties in northwest Arkansas. These storms will
contain gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning and very
heavy downpours. Storms will gradually drift west.

In eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, heat index values
range from around 100 to 107 as of early this afternoon. A heat
advisory remains in effect until 9 PM.

Remember to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors who may not have air conditioning.

Also never leave people or pets in a closed, parked vehicle, as
temperatures inside can reach over 150 degrees quickly, resulting
in heat stroke and death.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will persist daily during the Thursday
through Saturday time frame. A slow moving cold front may help
increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

ARZ002-031800-
Carroll AR-
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles north of
Eureka Springs, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Eureka Springs...
Beaver...                         Urbanette...
Grandview...                      Pleasant Ridge...
Oak Hill...                       Busch...

LAT...LON 3627 9363 3627 9364 3628 9363 3628 9366
      3630 9365 3630 9372 3642 9387 3650 9386
      3650 9353 3641 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 140DEG 17KT 3645 9372

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

ARZ001-002-011-031830-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON...NORTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1259 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles west of Beaver to 4 miles south of Eureka
Springs. Movement was southwest at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Berryville...                     Eureka Springs...
Beaver...                         Grandview...
Gateway...                        Rockhouse...
Pleasant Ridge...                 Beaver Lake...
Oak Hill...                       Busch...

LAT...LON 3629 9357 3625 9386 3650 9393 3650 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 061DEG 6KT 3648 9381 3634 9375

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
129 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

ARZ001-002-011-031900-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-
129 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BENTON...NORTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 128 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorms were located 5 miles north of
Clifty, moving west at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Eureka Springs...                 Grandview...
Clifty...                         Rockhouse...
Beaver Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9359 3627 9361 3622 9387 3644 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 079DEG 19KT 3632 9380

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
221 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

OKZ076-032000-
Le Flore OK-
221 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 220 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Talimena State Park, moving west at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Talihina...                       Whitesboro...
Talimena State Park...

LAT...LON 3469 9506 3477 9506 3486 9503 3486 9500
      3494 9500 3494 9498 3484 9475 3467 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 106DEG 7KT 3478 9487