Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 06Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
The main focus for the forecast will be convective potential and
its impact on aviation ops. The ongoing MCS is focusing toward SE
OK and site KMLC, and have thus gone most aggressive with IFR
conditions in a tempo TSRA group. Otherwise, kept tempo groups in
the near term for MVFR conditions at the other sites. The focus on
Saturday shifts southward for afternoon/evening development along
remnant outflow boundary. As such vcts and eventually tempo tsra
mention were used at the southern KMLC and KFSM sites during the
afternoon and evening on Saturday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 919 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
MCS evolving from the High Plains and currently extending across nwrn
OK at this time is pretty much on track with earlier expectations.
Latest local mesoanalyses indicate surface-based CAPE over ern
Oklahoma remains 1000-1500 j/kg with deep-layer shear of 30-40kts.
Although CIN is increasing this evening, strengthening low level
jet and strong convergence along the MCS cold pool is expected to
sustain convection as it moves into eastern Oklahoma this evening and
nwrn Arkansas later tonight. Rapid update CAMs models continue to
support this idea. Severe weather potential, especially damaging
wind, persists into our area and severe thunderstorm watch will be
issued shortly for much of eastern Oklahoma. Made slight adjustments
to sky condition given current trends but remainder of forecast is
trending well as is.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  71  91  76 /  30  40  20  20
FSM   85  73  92  75 /  60  50  40  10
MLC   87  74  92  76 /  70  60  20   0
BVO   86  69  89  74 /  20  20  20  40
FYV   81  70  86  73 /  60  50  40  10
BYV   81  69  89  72 /  50  50  40  10
MKO   83  71  90  75 /  50  60  30  10
MIO   84  69  89  73 /  30  30  30  30
F10   85  72  90  75 /  50  70  20  10
HHW   92  76  93  76 /  70  50  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
505 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
505 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...Severe Weather Likely Late Tonight Into Saturday...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Near and south of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and south of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and south of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms were organizing over western Kansas
southward through the northwestern Texas Panhandle early this
evening. These storms are expected to continue to develop eastward
this evening and overnight, beginning to affect portions of eastern
Oklahoma between 10pm and 2am and northwestern Arkansas between 2am
and 4am. The storms are expected to organize into a squall line by
the time they move into eastern Oklahoma, which will support a risk
of severe weather. The most likely severe weather threat will be
damaging wind gusts but there is a low threat of a tornado developing
along the leading edge of the line as well as large hail up to
quarter size with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be a threat with some of this activity overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The thunderstorms that move into the area tonight are expected to
persist into Saturday morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas. These storms will continue to pose a low
threat of severe weather and locally heavy rainfall until they weaken
by late morning. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected to
develop along the outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms and
near a warm front during the afternoon and evening. The location of
where these boundaries settle tomorrow is uncertain but will most
likely be along or south of I-40. Very high instability and strong
deep layer wind shear will support storm organization, including
supercell thunderstorms. Although severe weather is possible area
wide, it is most likely and will be higher end along and south of the
aforementioned boundaries where very large hail to tennis ball size
and a tornado threat will exist. Damaging wind will also be possible,
especially later in the evening and overnight.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to move into northeastern
Oklahoma Sunday night with chances continuing across all of eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas through Monday. These storms will
pose a limted severe weather threat during the period.

High pressure will strengthen over the region by mid week, resulting
in decreasing rain chances and increasing heat and humidity. Heat
indices mid to late week could increase to potentially dangerous
levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

OKZ061-062-066-067-070-230545-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Rogers OK-Wagoner OK-Mayes OK-
1203 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS...SOUTHERN
MAYES...WAGONER...NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1203 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles north of Claremore to 2 miles east of Mounds.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Muskogee...
Claremore...                      Okmulgee...
Wagoner...                        Pryor...
Coweta...                         Pryor Creek...
Chouteau...                       Haskell...
Inola...                          Morris...
Salina...                         Okay...
Porter...                         Oktaha...
Taft...                           Boynton...
Council Hill...                   Tullahassee...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 242 and 262.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma. A severe
thunderstorm watch also remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3640 9509 3597 9528 3555 9541 3556 9599
      3586 9583 3586 9581 3590 9581 3590 9575
      3600 9575 3642 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 278DEG 42KT 3636 9564 3588 9601

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

OKZ065-066-070-071-073-230545-
Pittsburg OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
1227 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN
PITTSBURG...WEST CENTRAL MUSKOGEE...SOUTHERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1226 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles north of Grayson to near Wetumka. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Okmulgee...
Eufaula...                        Henryetta...
Checotah...                       Morris...
Weleetka...                       Dewar...
Schulter...                       Canadian...
Indianola...                      Grayson...
Council Hill...                   Hanna...
Rentiesville...                   Hoffman...
Stidham...                        Raiford...
Vivian...                         Lake Eufaula State Park...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 229 and
267.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3564 9592 3556 9539 3486 9587 3502 9609
      3509 9606 3512 9603 3512 9601 3515 9601
      3515 9598 3529 9598 3529 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 303DEG 36KT 3556 9590 3525 9624

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

OKZ070>075-230615-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Muskogee OK-Latimer OK-Sequoyah OK-
McIntosh OK-
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HASKELL...WEST CENTRAL
SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN LATIMER...PITTSBURG AND CENTRAL
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1247 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles southwest of Council Hill to 6 miles southwest
of Scipio. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Wilburton...
Eufaula...                        Stigler...
Checotah...                       Hartshorne...
Krebs...                          Warner...
Quinton...                        Porum...
Webbers Falls...                  Crowder...
Whitefield...                     Alderson...
Kinta...                          Canadian...
Tamaha...                         Indianola...
Council Hill...                   Hanna...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 246 and
287.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma. A severe
thunderstorm watch also remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for east
central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3506 9607 3509 9606 3512 9603 3512 9601
      3515 9601 3515 9598 3525 9598 3538 9589
      3538 9588 3540 9588 3555 9576 3555 9572
      3558 9571 3545 9491 3472 9545 3494 9609
      3505 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0547Z 286DEG 37KT 3550 9571 3502 9606

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
131 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

OKZ070-071-073-074-230700-
Haskell OK-Pittsburg OK-Muskogee OK-McIntosh OK-
131 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL...EAST CENTRAL
MCINTOSH...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 131 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Enterprise, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Stigler...                        Quinton...
Porum...                          Keota...
Mccurtain...                      Whitefield...
Kinta...                          Tamaha...
Briartown...                      Mc Curtain...
Enterprise...                     Lequire...
Kanima...                         Lewisville...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Oklahoma. A severe thunderstorm watch
also remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for southeastern and east
central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3511 9536 3512 9555 3543 9550 3545 9502
      3543 9502 3541 9501 3539 9490 3537 9490
      3536 9492 3535 9492 3535 9489 3520 9491
      3520 9493 3506 9493 3506 9534 3505 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0631Z 262DEG 35KT 3524 9531

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