Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Tulsa, OK

264 
WWUS54 KTSA 230406
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1106 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

OKC037-113-117-230430-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-180623T0430Z/
Osage OK-Creek OK-Pawnee OK-
1106 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 1106 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles east of Fairfax to 5 miles southeast of
Glencoe, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Drumright...                      Oilton...
Jennings...                       Ralston...
Westport...                       Osage...
Hallett...                        Blackburn...
Terlton...                        Maramec...
Skedee...                         Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 9687 3653 9631 3591 9630 3592 9662
      3616 9662 3616 9682 3624 9682 3625 9692
      3633 9693 3634 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 271DEG 39KT 3652 9654 3617 9686 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
919 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
MCS evolving from the High Plains and currently extending across nwrn
OK at this time is pretty much on track with earlier expectations.
Latest local mesoanalyses indicate surface-based CAPE over ern
Oklahoma remains 1000-1500 j/kg with deep-layer shear of 30-40kts.
Although CIN is increasing this evening, strenghtening low level
jet and strong convergence along the MCS cold pool is expected to
sustain convection as it moves into eastern Oklahoma this evening and
nwrn Arkansas later tonight. Rapid update CAMs models continue to
support this idea. Severe weather potential, especially damaging
wind, persists into our area and severe thunderstorm watch will be
issued shortly for much of eastern Oklahoma. Made slight adjustments
to sky condition given current trends but remainder of forecast is
trending well as is.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
505 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231100-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
505 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

...Severe Weather Likely Late Tonight Into Saturday...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Near and south of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and south of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and south of I-40.
	ONSET...After 10pm.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms were organizing over western Kansas
southward through the northwestern Texas Panhandle early this
evening. These storms are expected to continue to develop eastward
this evening and overnight, beginning to affect portions of eastern
Oklahoma between 10pm and 2am and northwestern Arkansas between 2am
and 4am. The storms are expected to organize into a squall line by
the time they move into eastern Oklahoma, which will support a risk
of severe weather. The most likely severe weather threat will be
damaging wind gusts but there is a low threat of a tornado developing
along the leading edge of the line as well as large hail up to
quarter size with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall will
also be a threat with some of this activity overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The thunderstorms that move into the area tonight are expected to
persist into Saturday morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas. These storms will continue to pose a low
threat of severe weather and locally heavy rainfall until they weaken
by late morning. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected to
develop along the outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms and
near a warm front during the afternoon and evening. The location of
where these boundaries settle tomorrow is uncertain but will most
likely be along or south of I-40. Very high instability and strong
deep layer wind shear will support storm organization, including
supercell thunderstorms. Although severe weather is possible area
wide, it is most likely and will be higher end along and south of the
aforementioned boundaries where very large hail to tennis ball size
and a tornado threat will exist. Damaging wind will also be possible,
especially later in the evening and overnight.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to move into northeastern
Oklahoma Sunday night with chances continuing across all of eastern
Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas through Monday. These storms will
pose a limted severe weather threat during the period.

High pressure will strengthen over the region by mid week, resulting
in decreasing rain chances and increasing heat and humidity. Heat
indices mid to late week could increase to potentially dangerous
levels.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1018 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

OKZ054-230415-
Osage OK-
1018 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1017 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Kildare,
moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Fairfax...                        Barnsdall...
Shidler...                        Wynona...
Burbank...                        Elgin...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Bigheart...                       Bartlesville Municipal Airport...
Osage Hills State Park...         Pearsonia...
Hulah...                          Sunset Lake...
Okesa...                          Southern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...                      Tallant...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9601 3652 9600 3655 9674 3657 9677
      3655 9681 3655 9690 3657 9689 3660 9692
      3658 9698 3659 9706 3660 9704 3668 9706
      3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 261DEG 43KT 3684 9707

69