Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
750 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Made some alterations to first period pops based on latest convective
trends. Storms currently evolving into a squall line across SW-SC
OK with diminishing sfc based activity to the north and northeast
given warm mid level temperatures. Highest pops will be across SE
OK this evening, expanding further northeast into NW AR after
06z. Overnight low temperatures will be left as they are at this
time.

Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
856 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
856 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Parts of Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 10 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 10 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
The threat of severe thunderstorms, including a limited risk of
tornadoes, will increase across parts of eastern Oklahoma this
evening, and far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas overnight.

Severe thunderstorms have remained ongoing across western and
central Oklahoma this evening, but as storms continue to organize
into a squall line, they will  move into parts of eastern Oklahoma
before 1030 pm, and into far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
after midnight.  Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
within the strongest portions of the line are possible.  The overall
threat of severe weather is expected to decrease as the activity
moves further into Arkansas late tonight.

Additional thunderstorms may develop and move into southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas very late tonight. Depending on the
evolution of the first round of storms, Severe potential with
additional storms very late tonight may be limited.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday morning. This activity
should be weakening during the morning hours but will still have a
small severe threat. Additional thunderstorms may develop later in
the afternoon as the dryline surges farther east. Severe weather
would be possible with these storms as well. Showers and
thunderstorms will be ending Friday as the cold front exits to
the south and east.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Continue to monitor forecasts for severe weather potential
Thursday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
922 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

OKZ054-059-064-030300-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
922 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
CREEK AND PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 922 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Morrison to 3 miles northeast of
Carney. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Cleveland...
Drumright...                      Fairfax...
Oilton...                         Jennings...
Ralston...                        Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Terlton...
Maramec...                        Skedee...
Sooner Lake...                    Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3649 9703 3667 9645 3599 9645 3593 9662
      3616 9662 3616 9682 3624 9682 3625 9692
      3633 9693 3634 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 235DEG 42KT 3637 9695 3582 9696