Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Tulsa, OK

107 
WWUS54 KTSA 291001
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

OKC113-117-291030-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-180729T1030Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
501 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 501 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles south of Kaw City to 5 miles southwest of
Ralston to 2 miles northwest of Stillwater, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...                        Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Maramec...
Skedee...                         Sooner Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 9639 3616 9662 3616 9682 3624 9682
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3658 9689 3660 9692 3659 9705 3668 9706
      3670 9703 3668 9694 3667 9688 3665 9675
      3663 9663 3661 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1001Z 277DEG 41KT 3669 9684 3647 9682 3615 9708 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
402 AM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Previously two complexes of storms, one with origins in Nebraska
and the other over southwest Kansas & Oklahoma Panhandle,
undergoing a merger across south central Kansas this morning.
Satellite showing cloud top cooling continues to expand along the
length of broken convection with embedded severe wind gusts
stretching from Kansas City to Emporia to Wichita then southward
into northern Oklahoma where new cells are developing in advance
of evolving gust front. Expect scattered to numerous storms to
continue to advance southeast across eastern Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas this morning with trailing weaker convection
lingering into the afternoon primarily across far southern
Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas mostly east of Fort Smith.

Main severe threat should be limited to first few hours of this
forecast as complex moves into less unstable air and encounters
overall diurnal minimum for convection. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per
hour may result in some localized flooding with the stronger
cells. In addition to mention of severe, have also included areas
of fog through 15Z for far southeast Okalhoma with patchy fog
into portions of northwest Arkansas as satellite and surface obs
indicate stratus development underway there.

More shortwave energy across the central Rockies is poised to dive
southeast into the Plains this evening and with the aid of
strengthening low level jet support further MCS development
overnight. Models remain fairly consistent bringing bulk of
convection southeast across Kansas into Oklahoma with favored
development along advancing front forecast to parallel I-40 around
06Z. Although axis of heaviest rainfall difficult to know this far
out, several models have bulls-eyes of heaviest precip across
eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Overall severe threat may
be limited by lack of instability but there remains a threat for
localized wind and hail in addition to the locally heavy
rainfall. Precipitation looks to end quickly from west to east
during the day Monday but as the trough axis slowly pivots across
the Ozarks expect clouds to linger through the evening. Coupled
with northerly flow this will help keep temperatures on the cool
side with highs struggling to reach the 80s for much of the area.

Cyclonic flow continues through midweek in the wake of the exiting
trough before the subtropical high that has been held at bay over
the desert southwest begins to build eastward on Thursday allowing
temperatures to climb back to near normal. Periodic mid and high
clouds in northwest flow looks to be the only thing to spoil an
otherwise pleasant first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  68  81  64 /  70  60  50  20
FSM   83  69  81  67 /  80  60  70  30
MLC   87  70  81  65 /  70  80  70  30
BVO   82  66  80  62 /  60  70  40  20
FYV   80  66  78  62 /  80  60  70  30
BYV   79  65  77  62 /  90  60  70  30
MKO   82  68  80  64 /  80  70  60  20
MIO   81  65  80  62 /  80  60  50  20
F10   85  68  80  64 /  70  80  60  20
HHW   91  72  84  68 /  40  50  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
430 AM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-300930-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
430 AM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited today. Elevated tonight.
	AREA...Much of northeast Oklahoma this morning. Northeast and east central Oklahoma tonight.
 	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by midday. Round two begins after midnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by midday. Threat returns after midnight tonight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...ending by midday. Threat returns after midnight tonight.

DISCUSSION...

There is a limited risk of severe weather this morning. Damaging
winds 60 to 70 mph will be the main threat, and is greatest across
northeast Oklahoma along and west of highway 75. There is an
elevated risk of severe weather tonight after midnight across
northeast and east central Oklahoma. Damaging winds to 70 mph will
be the main threat. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall may lead to
some localized flash flooding.

A complex of storms will move across the region this morning.
Another complex of storms is expected to arrive after midnight
tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY thru SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A complex of storms will be ongoing early Monday morning, moving
southeast across portions of the region with a decreasing severe
wind threat with southward and eastward extent. Some isolated to
scattered storms could develop along the synoptic cold front by
Monday afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected with these
storms. There is a low chance for some lingering storms over
western Arkansas on Tuesday in association with an upper storm
system.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Lacy