Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
649 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The main synoptic cold front has passed east of the area sweeping
the deeper gulf moisture east. The area remains in a somewhat
unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the next front that is
now located across Nebraska closer to the developing upper low.
Around 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE will be present this afternoon into the
evening which could be sufficient for scattered showers and
t-storms through sunset. Effective shear will increase to around
30kts and the unidirectional wind profile suggests any organized
convection may be capable of producing gusty winds but at this
point coverage would appear to be isolated.

Once the diurnal storms diminish it should be mostly dry overnight
before more showers invade the area from the north as the upper
low deepens and drifts southward with time on Thursday. The center
of the upper low should remain across MO placing the CWA in the
western side of the circulation with some rain showers and breezy
conds expected during the day especially north of I-70. Highs will
be cooler than normal for a change with daytime temps in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The low will depart the area Thursday night leaving the area in
quiet weather for a short time at least through Friday. The next
shortwave in the northwest flow regime will approach the area
Friday night. The 805mb WAA/ThetaE advection will be focused
across southern KS where an MCS will likely form. We will be on
the northern side of any complex and will keep modest precip chcs
going for Friday night mainly across the southwest half of the
area.

A second shortwave will move across NE/IA on Saturday and will
keep at least some chance for t-storms across the area Sat-Sat
night although confidence in timing and location of any convection
during the Sat-Sat night time frame is very low at this point.

There is higher confidence in the upper pattern by early next week
as another upper low emerges into the plains. Given the moisture
and shear profiles this could bring us our next shot of more
widespread severe weather potential sometime Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, continue to watch a small area of thunderstorms
move into areas northwest of KMHK. Potential for storms to impact
the terminal should occur before 02Z time frame. Do expect
activity to begin to diminish in coverage after this point. Looks
like wrap around showers and lower CIGS could make a run at the
terminals around or shortly after sunrise. Have only gone with
MVFR at the KTOP/KFOE terminals as this set up lends itself to
setting up mostly north and east of KMHK toward the KTOP/KFOE
terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
this evening across the area. If any storms do develop they may be
capable of producing strong damaging wind gusts. Any storms and
severe risk will diminish after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another storm system will take aim at the area early next week.
This could bring a risk for severe storms to the area Monday into
Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
919 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ037-054-210245-
Lyon-Morris-
919 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS AND WEST
CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 918 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Council Grove, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Americus and Dunlap.

LAT...LON 3843 9635 3852 9635 3852 9652 3856 9660
      3864 9652 3857 9620 3841 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 296DEG 28KT 3858 9655

Cohen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
921 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW WAMEGO            39.22N 96.37W
06/20/2018                   POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EIGHT INCH TREE COMPLETELY BROKEN AND BLOWN
            OVER.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
934 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N WAMEGO              39.21N 96.31W
06/20/2018                   POTTAWATOMIE       KS   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN IN WAMEGO WITH
            WINDS SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
935 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ038-039-210315-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-
935 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHAWNEE AND EAST CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 935 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southeast of St. Marys to 3 miles
southwest of Maple Hill. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Rossville, Silver Lake, Maple Hill, Willard and Pauline.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 340 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 170 and 178.

LAT...LON 3916 9560 3889 9571 3903 9608 3921 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 289DEG 33KT 3916 9603 3905 9608

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
938 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ054-055-210330-
Lyon-Osage-
938 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTHERN
LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 938 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Bushong, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Allen and Admire.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 142 and 152.

LAT...LON 3869 9635 3874 9635 3874 9612 3869 9585
      3851 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 289DEG 33KT 3871 9630

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
939 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ054-210330-
Lyon-
939 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LYON COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT...

At 939 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Dunlap, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Americus, Hartford and Neosho Rapids.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 143.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 125 and 134.

LAT...LON 3844 9635 3851 9635 3855 9631 3843 9595
      3826 9595 3826 9596 3822 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 296DEG 31KT 3850 9638

Cohen