Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
649 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The main synoptic cold front has passed east of the area sweeping
the deeper gulf moisture east. The area remains in a somewhat
unstable airmass this afternoon ahead of the next front that is
now located across Nebraska closer to the developing upper low.
Around 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE will be present this afternoon into the
evening which could be sufficient for scattered showers and
t-storms through sunset. Effective shear will increase to around
30kts and the unidirectional wind profile suggests any organized
convection may be capable of producing gusty winds but at this
point coverage would appear to be isolated.

Once the diurnal storms diminish it should be mostly dry overnight
before more showers invade the area from the north as the upper
low deepens and drifts southward with time on Thursday. The center
of the upper low should remain across MO placing the CWA in the
western side of the circulation with some rain showers and breezy
conds expected during the day especially north of I-70. Highs will
be cooler than normal for a change with daytime temps in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The low will depart the area Thursday night leaving the area in
quiet weather for a short time at least through Friday. The next
shortwave in the northwest flow regime will approach the area
Friday night. The 805mb WAA/ThetaE advection will be focused
across southern KS where an MCS will likely form. We will be on
the northern side of any complex and will keep modest precip chcs
going for Friday night mainly across the southwest half of the
area.

A second shortwave will move across NE/IA on Saturday and will
keep at least some chance for t-storms across the area Sat-Sat
night although confidence in timing and location of any convection
during the Sat-Sat night time frame is very low at this point.

There is higher confidence in the upper pattern by early next week
as another upper low emerges into the plains. Given the moisture
and shear profiles this could bring us our next shot of more
widespread severe weather potential sometime Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

For the 00Z TAFs, continue to watch a small area of thunderstorms
move into areas northwest of KMHK. Potential for storms to impact
the terminal should occur before 02Z time frame. Do expect
activity to begin to diminish in coverage after this point. Looks
like wrap around showers and lower CIGS could make a run at the
terminals around or shortly after sunrise. Have only gone with
MVFR at the KTOP/KFOE terminals as this set up lends itself to
setting up mostly north and east of KMHK toward the KTOP/KFOE
terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
this evening across the area. If any storms do develop they may be
capable of producing strong damaging wind gusts. Any storms and
severe risk will diminish after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another storm system will take aim at the area early next week.
This could bring a risk for severe storms to the area Monday into
Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
805 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLYDE                   39.59N 97.40W
06/20/2018                   CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF CLYDE
            ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM.

&&

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
814 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ021>023-210145-
Clay-Pottawatomie-Riley-
814 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RILEY...SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE
AND EAST CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 814 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Green, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Westmoreland, Riley, Leonardville, Olsburg, Randolph and
Tuttle Creek Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 9700 3956 9696 3941 9635 3915 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 293DEG 36KT 3945 9700

Cohen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
817 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE MORGANVILLE        39.52N 97.13W
06/20/2018                   CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TEN INCH LIMBS BROKE OFF TREES.

&&

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
828 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ010-011-023-210200-
Pottawatomie-Nemaha-Marshall-
828 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE...
SOUTHWESTERN NEMAHA AND SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

At 828 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lillis, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Corning, Vermillion and Lillis.

LAT...LON 3964 9648 3974 9634 3964 9595 3948 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 299DEG 26KT 3966 9633

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
838 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ036-210215-
Geary-
838 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GEARY COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

At 838 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Junction City, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Junction City.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 293 and 298.

LAT...LON 3904 9690 3898 9659 3887 9665 3887 9674
      3894 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 293DEG 37KT 3896 9687

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
847 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

KSZ038-210215-
Wabaunsee-
847 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 847 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Alma, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alma and McFarland.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 323 and 330.

LAT...LON 3893 9624 3904 9646 3905 9645 3904 9639
      3911 9639 3912 9638 3904 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 298DEG 40KT 3905 9638

Cohen