Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
312 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms from the morning have continued to
move across northeast Kansas this afternoon supported by outflow
boundaries and ample buoyancy.  With PWATS near two inches and slow
storm motion, this convection displayed efficient rain rates with
some areas seeing over an inch and a half an hour.  Even with the
slow movement across northeast Kansas, soils have been so dry that
flash flooding was not observed with afternoon storms.  Did have to
lower some high temperatures today where cloud cover lasted the
longest with highs ranging from the mid 80s in far northeast
Kansas into the 90s in central Kansas. Some scattered storms have
also developed behind this line of storms in north central Kansas
and expect these storms to remain scattered and move north into
Nebraska this evening. If any of these storms do tap into
unmodified air, damaging winds or small hail would be the main
hazards (mainly in north central Kansas).

For tonight, the inverted trough axis currently located across west
central Kansas into north central Kansas will drift into north
central Kansas overnight before stalling out tomorrow.  Storms will
form along this boundary late this afternoon and form into an MCS in
western Kansas propagating eastward towards the CWA.  Short term
guidance has been backing off on the timing for precipitation to
enter north central Kansas with most models entering this area after
10pm.  Over the past couple runs the HRRR has tended to greatly
weaken/dissipate this MCS as it moves into northeast Kansas, but
have continued with PoPs through the early morning to account for
the NAM which brings precipitation across the entirety of northeast
Kansas by early morning.  The main hazards with this MCS would be
damaging wind gusts, with this threat mainly limited to north
central Kansas.  Similar to this afternoon, there is also a threat
for heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.  Have held
off on a flood watch for now due to the scattered nature of storms
later this afternoon and lack of confidence on how storms will hold
together overnight.

Wednesday is another one of the days where what happens in the
morning will impact what evolves during the rest of the day.  The
surface boundary Wednesday afternoon looks to be located across the
CWA with the warm sector generally in central, east central, and
northeast Kansas.  Another day of high CAPE low shear exists and if
storms can form in the afternoon hours near the boundary, there
could be some damaging winds or small hail possible.  Temperatures
tomorrow do look to be slightly cooler with highs in the low to mid-
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The upper trough Wednesday night deepens as it drifts southeast
from eastern Nebraska to eastern Missouri by Thursday night. Any
storms Wednesday/Wednesday night will weaken during the overnight
hours before more chances for precipitation occur Thursday as the
surface low moves east and out of central Plains. With the earlier
passage of the front Wednesday night, temperatures Thursday look
to be cool topping out in the mid to upper 70s. A brief period of
dry weather will occur Friday morning into the afternoon, but from
Friday evening through the end of the period, there look to be
sporadic chances for precipitation across the CWA. Subtle waves in
the flow over central Plains take place over the weekend before a
stronger mid-level trough moves towards Kansas Monday night.
Although temperatures warm up after Thursday and Friday, they tend
to stay near climatology through the weekend only reaching into
the upper 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms at TOP/FOE may linger until 22Z
with the mention of VCTS at these sites until that time. MHK looks
to stay rain free until later this evening when a complex of
storms moves into the area from western Kansas after 08Z. Models
have varied on whether this complex of storms hold together so
only have confidence to use VCTS for the overnight hours at all
terminals. There may be some MVFR ceilings after 12Z tomorrow, but
have only included SCT ceilings at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Heller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-202030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
318 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms mainly late
afternoon and this evening in north central Kansas, with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall
is also possible which could result in flash flooding.

Thunderstorms are also possible overnight with the potential for
some damaging wind gusts with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

KSZ035-192115-
Dickinson-
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Abilene, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Herington, Enterprise, Hope and Carlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9737 3892 9711 3867 9693 3863 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 232DEG 18KT 3880 9722

Cohen