Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
649 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Convection has developed this afternoon was occurring within the
moisture axis in an area of convergence coincident with a 40 kt mid
level jet. Water vapor loops shows a wave lifting northeast across
western Kansas enhancing lift across north central Kansas this
afternoon. Main frontal boundary remains well north of the cwa this
afternoon. CAMS continue to show scattered convection into the early
evening then focusing further north along the frontal boundary in
Nebraska and Iowa. Main concern for this afternoon with the storms
will be downdraft winds as mesoanalysis shows downdraft CAPE around
1400 J/kg along with steep low level lapse rates. Have adjusted pops
for tonight further north across the cwa. There is the potential for
a back building MCS tonight mainly affecting north central and
northeast Kansas later tonight. Models continue to favor convection
from Nebraska building southward across the cwa on Tuesday. The ARW
suggests that an outflow will move south in the morning then
dissipate with additional convection developing across southern
Nebraska into north central Kansas along the frontal boundary.
Overnight and morning convection may alter any potential severe
weather. Shear is forecast to be weak within a very moist and
unstable environment on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible across the area with rather slow movement
of storms. Lows tonight will cool into the mid 70s with highs on
Tuesday reaching back into the 90s and heat indices remain below
advisory levels. Will continue with the heat advisory through 8 PM
today as heat indices continue around 105 this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tuesday night into Wednesday the upper trough will move into the
central Plains enhancing the lift across north central and northeast
Kansas. Storms across Nebraska into western Kansas look to form into
a forward propagating MCS during the evening hours and move
southeast into the CWA. Damaging winds and hail will be the main
hazards along with locally heavy rainfall. The upper low then
remains over northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska Wednesday night
and Thursday before exiting off to the east Thursday night or
Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the day on Friday. A quasi zonal flow then sets up for the weekend
with models differing with the placement of precipitation. Cooler
temperatures are expected from Wednesday through the end of the week
with highs in the 80s. Temps warm up back to around 90 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

For the 00z TAFs, scattered storms will continue near KMHK through
early this evening before diminishing and remaining mostly north
of the area overnight. There is high confidence for additional
showers and storms to develop through the day on Tuesday, however
confidence is low with the exact timing and location of these
storms as there are several variable solutions amongst the models.
As a result, have just VCTS mentioned for late morning into the
afternoon hours at this time, with additional storms possible
Tuesday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ009>012-021>024-
026-034>040-054>056.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
924 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-200230-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
924 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few scattered storms will be possible this evening and overnight
across far north central to northeast Kansas along the Kansas
Nebraska border. Some strong winds may be possible with any storms
that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
921 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WASHINGTON         39.83N 97.07W
06/18/2018  E1.41 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAIN AFTER AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
923 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE BREMEN            39.88N 96.71W
06/18/2018  M2.50 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL RAIN AFTER AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

BD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
924 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

KSZ008-190315-
Republic-
924 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM CDT...

At 922 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles west of Webber to near Ionia. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms. Strong
winds may arrive before the thunderstorms occur.

Locations impacted include...
Scandia, Courtland, Norway and Republic.

LAT...LON 4000 9772 3966 9778 3965 9787 3966 9793
      4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 252DEG 26KT 3995 9812 3969 9833

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1012 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

KSZ008-190400-
Republic-
1012 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1012 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles north of Courtland to Mankato. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Scandia and Courtland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 9793 3992 9790 3992 9773 3975 9777
      3975 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 261DEG 17KT 3985 9789 3979 9821

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1057 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

KSZ008-020-190430-
Republic-Cloud-
1057 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWESTERN
CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles south of Republic to near Montrose.
Movement was east at 15 mph. Strong thunderstorms may also develop
elsewhere across portions of western Republic County and
northwestern Cloud County, with this activity expected to move east
at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Jamestown, Courtland and Norway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 9793 3993 9760 3956 9773 3952 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 257DEG 15KT 3986 9785 3975 9805

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1121 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

KSZ020-190515-
Cloud-
1121 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

At 1119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Beloit, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. At 1102
PM 54 mph wind gusts were reported at Beloit Airport with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glasco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9793 3956 9768 3931 9772 3931 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 275DEG 17KT 3947 9808

Hennecke