Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
644 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

The stationary frontal boundary continues to bisect northeast Kansas
from southwest to northeast.  Clouds have finally broken up this
afternoon which will allow areas north of the boundary to reach into
the low 80s and areas south will approach 90.  A strong cap in place
this afternoon has inhibited any convection from forming, with the
best chance for storm initiation later this evening in central
Kansas and along the boundary as a wave moves over the central
Plains.  Due to the EML in place today, an excess of CAPE exists in
the warm sector along with effective shear of roughly 30-35 knots
over northeast Kansas.  Any storms that do form in this environment
will have the potential to produce large hail and and damaging wind
gusts.  The severe potential will decrease shortly after sunset. The
main area for storms will be along and north of I-70 tonight.

CAMs indicate there may be a few storms still lingering by early
morning across central Kansas, although these storms are not
expected to be severe.  The main wave on Monday to come out is
expected to once again initiate scattered storm development in the
afternoon along the ever present surface boundary.  The cap tomorrow
is much weaker and looks to be overcome in the afternoon hours.
Strong buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will once again make
the main hazards with any storms that do form large hail and
damaging winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Models continue to develop convection along and north of the frontal
boundary Monday evening, especially across northeast Kansas. An
unstable airmass characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, 30
to 40 kts of shear and steep mid level lapse rates will be in place.
In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible in northeast
Kansas within the 850-700 theta-e ridge and where pooling of low to
mid level moisture is forecast along the Highway 36 corridor from
Seneca eastward into Missouri. Models also show good moisture
transport focused in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri as well
which should contribute to increased precipitation efficiency. Weak
impulses are expected to move northeast into the area during the
evening hours along with a 50 to 55 kt mid level jet that is
forecast to move northeast through the CWA during the evening hours.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards expected, with
large hail primarily north of the frontal boundary, as well as
locally heavy rainfall.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see a quasi zonal flow across Kansas as
an upper trough remains over the west. Impulses will eject out into
the Plains resulting in maintaining small chances of convection
through the week. Thursday and Friday ridging aloft occurs as the
trough in the west begins to move across the Rockies. The trough is
forecast to move out into the Plains next weekend increasing the
chances for showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern
Kansas. Temperatures remain in the 80s for highs most days with lows
in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

For the 00z TAFs, main focus is on the potential for scattered
thunderstorm development tonight and again late Monday afternoon
and evening. For tonight, short-range models show the best
potential for thunderstorm development near KMHK, so have just
VCTS for KTOP/KFOE at this time. While cloud cover may scatter out
some overnight, another advancing shortwave late Monday morning
will bring low clouds into the area, with some models showing the
potential for some periods of MVFR cigs late morning/early
afternoon. Thunderstorm redevelopment is possible near the TAF
sites by the end of the TAF period, so will be looking into this
further in the next TAF issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-142030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
319 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms late this evening into the
overnight hours. Any storm that develops may produce hail and
strong wind gusts. Locations along and north of Interstate 70 are
more likely to see the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across northeast Kansas Monday
late afternoon and evening. A few of the storms may severe. The
main concerns with the storms would be for damaging wind gusts,
locally heavy rainfall, and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1032 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

KSZ034-140400-
Ottawa-
1032 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

At 1032 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tescott, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Delphos, Tescott and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9793 3931 9789 3923 9761 3896 9783
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 198DEG 28KT 3898 9791

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1041 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

KSZ008-009-020-140445-
Republic-Cloud-Washington-
1041 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REPUBLIC...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1041 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jamestown, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belleville, Scandia, Jamestown, Courtland, Norway, Republic, Munden,
Narka and Mahaska.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9723 3955 9790 3957 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 221DEG 32KT 3965 9790

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1050 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

KSZ020-021-034-035-140430-
Clay-Cloud-Dickinson-Ottawa-
1050 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON...EASTERN
OTTAWA...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 1130
PM CDT...

At 1050 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Bennington, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bennington, Miltonvale, Wells, Manchester, Longford, Oak
Hill and Niles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 9769 3938 9754 3928 9717 3895 9737
      3896 9737 3896 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 211DEG 25KT 3898 9757

Baerg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1113 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-140500-
Republic-Clay-Cloud-Washington-Ottawa-
1113 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA...SOUTHERN REPUBLIC...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles northeast of Delphos to 4 miles south
of Beverly. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Minneapolis, Clyde, Clifton, Miltonvale, Glasco, Delphos,
Tescott, Jamestown, Norway, Culver, Agenda, Aurora, Vining and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 9793 3974 9708 3896 9770 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 210DEG 33KT 3931 9774 3896 9800

Baerg