Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
240 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

A complex severe weather threat exists for this afternoon and
evening across portions of east central Kansas with hail and wind
the main threat.

An elevated line of convection rolled across portions of north
central and northeastern Kansas this morning and gradually waned as
the morning wore on. This line appears to have been tied to weak
ribbon of H800 theta-e advection, but most 06/12Z guidance failed to
resolve this feature. The outflow from this line was located along a
line from Jefferson to Morris County with the main synoptic
boundary located about 20-30 miles to the SE. However, return flow
was starting to set in along the western periphery of the
boundaries and the CU field was starting to lift back northward.
This trend is expected for at least the next several hours as the
surface low in Oklahoma lifts slightly northward.

Shallow warm sector convection festered over the SE portions of the
CWA around midday with deeper cells developing along a pre-frontal
boundary visible in satellite imagery from Greenwood to Miami
counties. The lack of surface CINH with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE
will result in numerous convective updrafts generating along the
multitude of boundaries located across the area and on residual
outflow boundaries produced by earlier convection. However, the lack
of strong convergence and weak CINH, combined with only marginal
deep shear and backed mid-level winds, will result in a complex
initial storm mode with a mixture of discrete and multi-cell
clusters possible at first, growing upscale into line segments. Low-
level southerly inflow winds are progged to be weak with speeds of
only 5 to 10 kts, but there is enough SRH in the lower profiles of
the atmosphere to warrant a non-zero tornado risk, especially near
the surface boundary.

Multiple rounds of both surface-based and--further north and/or
later in the event--elevated storms are expected throughout the
afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. PWATs in the 1-1.5 inch
range coupled with weak flow and storm motions parallel to the lines
of forcing may result in a heavy rain potential for any training
storms. Antecedent conditions this area are dry, but it would not
take long for an efficient storm to produce flooding concerns.

The convection will gradually lessen in intensity and coverage
overnight as the upper level wave lifts northward and shortwave
ridging builds in. The position of the surface boundary on Tuesday
will depend on convective trends this afternoon and tonight, but it
looks to be positioned over far SE Kansas by peak heating on
Tuesday. The lack of a significant thermal gradient across the
boundary means that storms may have the potential to be surface-
based again on Tuesday well behind the boundary, though the lack
of a strong forcing mechanism and backed wind fields would only
support a marginal wind and hail threat at best.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Multiple, ill-timed chances for showers and storms will continue for
the rest of the week with temperatures still remaining above average.

A rex block will be present over the western U.S. at the start of
the period and then break down by Friday. However, the region will
be under split flow through the weekend. The aforementioned surface
boundary will wash out over the Ozarks and Ohio River Valley
Wednesday morning with broad zonal surface ridging extending from
the Great Lakes to the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Return flow
will start working back into Kansas midday Wednesday and once again
present the chance for showers and storms along this area of broad
convergence during peak heating. The interface between this return
flow and surface ridge oscillates over the area Wed night into Thu,
with return flow become more established over NE Kansas by Thu
afternoon.

Multiple, poorly-timed, H500 PV lobes eject from a quasi-stationary
low over the SW U.S. on Thu and Fri and will keep the chance of
storms in the forecast. It will not be until Friday night into
Saturday that the pattern becomes more progressive. Nevertheless,
given the complex nature of this setup, the timing and associated
details of any convective complex will likely not be known until a
day or so before the event and hinge on the evolution of the
previous day's convection.

Highs midweek will remain in the 80s and gradually rise into the
upper 80s to near 90 as the return flow strengthens. The next
chance of cooler weather will not arrive until late in the weekend
as the synoptic pattern breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening,
primarily along and south of a CNK to STJ line. These storms may
result in localized restrictions. Lower MVFR ceilings may work in
later tonight from the NW and gradually lift on Tuesday morning.
Variable winds of 5 to 10 kts today will veer to the NW by this
evening as a front moves through.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Skow

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
248 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-152000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
248 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening across
much of the outlook area, with the best chance for severe storms
along and south of Interstate 70. Large hail, damaging winds, and
locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

KSZ024-026-142330-
Jefferson-Jackson-
541 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 541 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Potawatomi Reservation, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Falls, Hoyt, Ozawkie, Mayetta, Denison and Potawatomi
Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3925 9592 3936 9595 3946 9557 3942 9557
      3942 9544 3919 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 263DEG 22KT 3930 9586

Baerg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             7 NNW GRIDLEY           38.19N 95.95W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             8 S HARTFORD            38.20N 95.94W
05/14/2018  E1.50 INCH       COFFEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
602 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             5 WNW MAYETTA           39.37N 95.81W
05/14/2018  M1.75 INCH       JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
604 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             EMPORIA                 38.41N 96.18W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE AND REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             3 ENE EMPORIA           38.42N 96.13W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&