Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
247 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A southwest flow aloft with embedded weather disturbances will
bring more widespread thunderstorm activity to the region this
afternoon and evening with some potential for severe thunderstorms
with damaging wind and large hail along with locally heavy rain
and lightning. Very warm conditions are expected for the start of
the upcoming weekend on Saturday before a strong cold front
brings thunderstorms Saturday evening followed by windy, cooler
and showery conditions on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today and tonight...Cluster of thunderstorms over NE
portions of the forecast that brought heavy rain and localized
hail through midday will continue to lift north into SW SK later
this afternoon. Meanwhile, areas to the W and SW have been
heating/destabilizing with another weak embedded shortwave lifting
from ID into SW MT. Thunderstorms have initiated along the higher
terrain of western and SW MT and will track northeastward through
this evening before dissipating overnight. Wind shear is somewhat
stronger over SW MT, but higher dewpoints and instability exist
across central and N-central MT, supporting marginal conditions
for organized thunderstorms. Still, there is some threat for the
storms that develop this afternoon and evening over central and SW
MT to briefly produce hail and damaging wind with the threat for
any severe convection diminishing after 02z. Hoenisch

Friday through the middle of next week...

Temperatures warm significantly Friday and especially Saturday
ahead of a sharp and well-defined strong upper level trough with
attendant surface cold front approaching from the west. Expect
temperatures to soar, especially Saturday afternoon over our
plains counties, with mid-90s possible toward central Montana.
Additionally, there is some potential for thunderstorms late
Saturday over parts of our north-central counties, but lots of
uncertainties remain, including whether there is any potential for
these thunderstorms to be severe. Regardless of thunderstorm
potential, a strong cold front moves across the region Saturday
night, then followed by windy, showery, and much cooler
conditions Sunday, with some snow likely above pass level as the
upper level trough passes. A slow moderation of temperatures and
winds are expected through the middle of next week. CC

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1744Z.

Mainly VFR expected next 24-hours as southwesterly flow aloft
persists. Multiple disturbances embedded within this flow will
result in periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially through
about 09Z/Fri. Brief MVFR to IFR CIGS/VSBY are possible with any
heavier rainfall. In addition, some thunderstorms will likely be
severe through this evening. 1-inch+ diameter hail and brief,
damaging wind gusts of 50-65 knots are the primary threats with any
severe storm.
- Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  82  56  89 /  50  10  10  10
CTB  52  80  51  81 /  30  10  10  30
HLN  53  79  54  86 /  60  20  20  20
BZN  48  77  48  85 /  50  10  10  10
WEY  43  71  40  75 /  30  10  10   0
DLN  47  74  48  79 /  50  30  20  10
HVR  55  84  57  92 /  40  10  10  10
LWT  52  76  54  84 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
401 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             5 ESE FERDIG            48.74N 111.67W
06/07/2018  E0.88 INCH       TOOLE              MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HAIL. MOST WAS PEA WITH
            SOME NEAR NICKEL SIZED HAIL. NO KNOWN
            DAMAGE.

&&

JAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
404 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             9 E FERDIG              48.78N 111.57W
06/07/2018  E0.25 INCH       TOOLE              MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN CAUSING WATER TO RUN DOWN ROAD.

&&

JAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
406 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             1 ENE DILLON            45.22N 112.62W
06/07/2018  E0.25 INCH       BEAVERHEAD         MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

PN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
409 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

MTZ048-049-072245-
Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Eastern Teton-
409 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PONDERA AND NORTH
CENTRAL TETON COUNTIES...

At 407 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles northwest
of Choteau, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Heavy rain, winds in excess of 40 mph, and half inch hail are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pendroy and Bynum.

This includes Highway 89 between mile markers 48 and 67.

Torrential rainfall may cause localized flooding, especially on
streets and in low lying areas. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4798 11206 4782 11238 4795 11257 4814 11237
      4814 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 224DEG 11KT 4794 11240

Coulston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
413 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

MTZ008-015-072245-
Madison-Beaverhead-
413 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MADISON AND
NORTHWESTERN BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES...

At 412 PM MDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Jackson to 6 miles
northwest of Dillon to 13 miles south of Virginia City. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Heavy rain, winds in excess of 40 mph, and pea size hail are
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dillon, Sheridan, Virginia City, Ennis, Twin Bridges, Alder, Jackson,
Wisdom, Bannack, Laurin, Glen, Beaverhead Rock State Park, Polaris,
Jeffers and Bannack State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 15 between mile markers 54  and 90 .
 Highway 287 between mile markers 42 and 53.

Torrential rainfall may cause localized flooding, especially on
streets and in low lying areas. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 4564 11350 4558 11251 4538 11154 4502 11193
      4512 11284 4525 11368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 207DEG 28KT 4532 11354 4527 11275 4511 11199

Coulston