Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Great Falls, MT

104 
WWUS55 KTFX 071642
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1042 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

MTC027-071650-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180607T1645Z/
Fergus MT-
1042 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 AM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Great Falls.

LAT...LON 4675 10864 4675 10923 4736 10910 4730 10859
      4727 10860 4727 10872 4719 10871 4718 10874
      4710 10873 4710 10862 4708 10860
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 212DEG 49KT 4722 10839 

$$

HOENISCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
515 AM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...

A southwest flow aloft with weak embedded weather disturbances
will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through
this morning. A stronger weather disturbance moving in from the
southwest will bring more widespread thunderstorm activity to the
region Thursday afternoon and evening with some potential for
severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and large hail. Very warm
conditions are expected for the start of the upcoming weekend on
Saturday before a strong cold front brings thunderstorms Saturday
evening followed by windy, cooler and showery conditions on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This morning through this evening...

Good moisture is helping to keep sufficient instability in place
through the overnight and early morning hours. Another in a series
of weaker shortwaves will continue to move across southwest and
central Montana through this morning, resulting in continued
shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. By mid-afternoon, a
much stronger disturbance moves across the Rocky Mountains onto
the High Plains of north-central Montana. Low-level moisture
transport from the east combined with an increasingly veering
profile just ahead of this disturbance will combine to contribute
to moderate to strongly unstable atmosphere over the plains.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected as the
disturbance tracks northeast through our area by late evening,
with some of the storms expected to be severe, with very large
hail and damaging winds the main threat, though an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out over north-central and central
Montana.

Friday through the middle of next week...

Temperatures warm significantly Friday and especially Saturday
ahead of a sharp and well-defined strong upper level trough with
attendant surface cold front approaching from the west. Expect
temperatures to soar, especially Saturday afternoon over our
plains counties, with mid-90s possible toward central Montana.
Additionally, there is some potential for thunderstorms late
Saturday over parts of our north-central counties, but lots of
uncertainties remain, including whether there is any potential for
these thunderstorms to be severe. Regardless of thunderstorm
potential, a strong cold front moves across the region Saturday
night, then followed by windy, showery, and much cooler
conditions Sunday, with some snow likely above pass level as the
upper level trough passes. A slow moderation of temperatures and
winds are expected through the middle of next week. CC

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1115z.

VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours
across the forecast area, with the exception of MVFR/IFR within
heavier showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the
evening in association with a strong disturbance moving across the
region. Before then, a weaker disturbance moving across southwest
and central Montana will bring areas of showers and thunderstorms,
impacting KEKS and KBZN especially with at least VCTS. Thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening could be severe especially from KGTF and
KEKS north and east, with hail over 2 inches and damaging
winds possible. CC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  79  53  81  56 /  60  40  10  10
CTB  77  48  78  52 /  70  40  10  10
HLN  76  52  79  54 /  50  40  20  20
BZN  77  48  77  49 /  70  60  30  20
WEY  73  40  70  40 /  20  20  10  10
DLN  74  46  74  48 /  80  60  20  10
HVR  81  54  83  57 /  70  70  10  10
LWT  74  50  76  54 /  70  60  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
825 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N DANVERS             47.23N 109.72W
06/06/2018  M1.60 INCH       FERGUS             MT   PUBLIC

            1.6 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM.

&&

BH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
933 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

MTZ051-071630-
Fergus MT-
933 AM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL
1030 AM MDT...

At 931 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Lewistown to 20 miles
north of Ryegate. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Pea to dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible
with these storms.

The strongest portions of these storms will remain over mainly rural
areas of southeastern Fergus County, including the following
locations... Suffolk, Fergus, Forestgrove, Giltedge, Glengarry,
Heath, Hilger and Christina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4675 10864 4675 10938 4670 10939 4670 10944
      4717 10968 4755 10950 4740 10866 4727 10864
      4727 10872 4719 10871 4718 10874 4710 10874
      4708 10860
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 212DEG 16KT 4717 10960 4659 10930

Hoenisch