Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Great Falls, MT

839 
WWUS55 KTFX 282215
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
415 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTC027-282224-
/O.CAN.KTFX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180628T2230Z/
Fergus MT-
415 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4683 10870 4696 10888 4710 10873 4710 10862
      4708 10860 4687 10861 4686 10862
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 227DEG 20KT 4703 10860 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
252 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across most the region into
the overnight hours as a disturbance moves across the Northern
Rockies. A few storms east of a Hays, to Stanford, to White
Sulphur Springs line may become strong to severe and produce
damaging winds and large hail this evening. In addition,
thunderstorms moving over the same area may cause localized
flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight...A strong upper level shortwave
currently over the Intermountain West will slide across the
Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening and into the Northern High
Plains by Friday afternoon. At the same time, a weak Pacific front
will slide from west to east during the late afternoon and through
the evening. Recent meso-analysis depicts that weak to modest
instability has developed over portions of North Central and into
Southwest Montana, however, cloud cover has kept most areas capped
as of 2030z (which has limited thunderstorm development over our
area thus far). In addition, meso-analysis revealed impressively
strong shear of 50-60kts over the same areas, especially south and
east of a Great Falls to Turner line. For areas south and east of
a Hays, to Stanford, to White Sulphur Springs line where the
greatest instability/shear and a weakening cap was located/occurring,
a few scattered severe thunderstorms during the late
afternoon/evening hours are possible. At this time, it appears
that thunderstorms should begin to develop between approximately
2pm and 6pm across the higher terrain of Southwest Montana (i.e.
Elkhorn, Big Belt, and Bridger Mountains) and then quickly move
northeast at approximately 25 to 40 mph. While storm motion will
be quite fast, given relatively high precipitable water values
around 0.75 inches and the potential for storms to train, some
flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is possible. Stay tuned
for future updates and keep an eye to the sky if you have outdoor
plans. - Moldan

Friday through Saturday night...The upper level trof will reside
over the region on Friday and the flow aloft will become more
northwesterly on Saturday. As a result, expect below normal
temperatures and the chances for showers/scattered thunderstorms
continuing. However, precipitation amounts for Fri/Sat should be
lighter.

Sunday through Thursday...The overall pattern will reside around
an upper level low over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level
ridge trying to build over the upper Midwest. As a result, expect
temperatures to trend towards more seasonal normals next week,
with a small chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm. Monday
looks to be the day most favorable for some storms, otherwise Tue
thru Thursday the storms are expected to be quite isolated in
terms of coverage at this time. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1800Z.
An upper level front is moving across Montana from the west. Expect
increasing mid/high level clouds through the day. Northwest surface
winds are expected behind a front this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop in the early afternoon over Southwest MT
and move northeastward into Central MT by evening, mainly east of a
KHLN to KHVR line. Expect scattered storms to linger over Southwest
and Central MT into Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected but
MVFR/IFR conditions and erratic winds are likely in/near any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  50  68  51 /  50  70  40  50
CTB  68  49  64  47 /  60  30  60  50
HLN  77  50  67  50 /  70  80  30  20
BZN  79  49  64  46 /  80  90  70  30
WEY  74  41  54  35 /  30  80  80  50
DLN  74  46  62  42 /  70  80  40  30
HVR  80  51  69  51 /  20  30  70  40
LWT  76  48  62  46 /  80  90  60  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
253 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTZ050-054-282130-
Judith Basin MT-Meagher MT-
253 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 252 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of White Sulphur Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Checkerboard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 11058 4659 11069 4687 11039 4671 11027
      4650 11028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 262DEG 10KT 4658 11055

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
319 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTZ051-282200-
Fergus MT-
319 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FERGUS COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 319 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Grass Range, or 27 miles southeast of Lewistown,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grass Range.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4680 10863 4674 10879 4675 10913 4680 10920
      4722 10873 4719 10871 4718 10874 4710 10874
      4710 10862 4708 10860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 227DEG 36KT 4685 10894

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
327 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTZ050-054-282215-
Judith Basin MT-Meagher MT-
327 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER AND
SOUTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 326 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 26
miles northwest of Harlowton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Meagher and southeastern Judith Basin Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4669 10982 4675 10996 4674 11003 4675 11005
      4672 11013 4672 11020 4671 11021 4672 11027
      4657 11028 4676 11046 4699 11003 4670 10979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 235DEG 31KT 4668 11027

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
340 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTZ013-050-051-282215-
Chouteau MT-Fergus MT-Judith Basin MT-
340 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JUDITH BASIN...
NORTHWESTERN FERGUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
MDT...

At 339 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stanford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Denton, Suffolk and Coffee Creek.

LAT...LON 4711 11001 4722 11023 4771 10984 4748 10929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 219DEG 38KT 4716 11015

KJ