Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Great Falls, MT

714 
WWUS55 KTFX 282103
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
303 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTC045-059-282130-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180628T2130Z/
Meagher MT-Judith Basin MT-
303 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER AND SOUTH CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES...

At 302 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 18 miles east of
White Sulphur Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Checkerboard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4672 11027 4656 11028 4650 11059 4667 11066
      4682 11041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 262DEG 10KT 4658 11051 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

467 
WWUS55 KTFX 282110
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
310 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTC045-059-282130-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180628T2130Z/
Meagher MT-Judith Basin MT-
310 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER AND SOUTH CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES...

At 310 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 23 miles east of
White Sulphur Springs, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east
central Meagher and south central Judith Basin Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4653 11046 4669 11062 4670 11061 4682 11041
      4672 11027 4657 11028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 217DEG 31KT 4666 11043 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KJ

352 
WWUS55 KTFX 282128
SVSTFX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
328 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTC045-059-282138-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180628T2130Z/
Meagher MT-Judith Basin MT-
328 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning is moving out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4653 11046 4669 11062 4670 11061 4682 11041
      4672 11027 4657 11028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 262DEG 10KT 4667 11036 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
252 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across most the region into
the overnight hours as a disturbance moves across the Northern
Rockies. A few storms east of a Hays, to Stanford, to White
Sulphur Springs line may become strong to severe and produce
damaging winds and large hail this evening. In addition,
thunderstorms moving over the same area may cause localized
flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight...A strong upper level shortwave
currently over the Intermountain West will slide across the
Northern Rockies this afternoon/evening and into the Northern High
Plains by Friday afternoon. At the same time, a weak Pacific front
will slide from west to east during the late afternoon and through
the evening. Recent meso-analysis depicts that weak to modest
instability has developed over portions of North Central and into
Southwest Montana, however, cloud cover has kept most areas capped
as of 2030z (which has limited thunderstorm development over our
area thus far). In addition, meso-analysis revealed impressively
strong shear of 50-60kts over the same areas, especially south and
east of a Great Falls to Turner line. For areas south and east of
a Hays, to Stanford, to White Sulphur Springs line where the
greatest instability/shear and a weakening cap was located/occurring,
a few scattered severe thunderstorms during the late
afternoon/evening hours are possible. At this time, it appears
that thunderstorms should begin to develop between approximately
2pm and 6pm across the higher terrain of Southwest Montana (i.e.
Elkhorn, Big Belt, and Bridger Mountains) and then quickly move
northeast at approximately 25 to 40 mph. While storm motion will
be quite fast, given relatively high precipitable water values
around 0.75 inches and the potential for storms to train, some
flooding of urban and poor drainage areas is possible. Stay tuned
for future updates and keep an eye to the sky if you have outdoor
plans. - Moldan

Friday through Saturday night...The upper level trof will reside
over the region on Friday and the flow aloft will become more
northwesterly on Saturday. As a result, expect below normal
temperatures and the chances for showers/scattered thunderstorms
continuing. However, precipitation amounts for Fri/Sat should be
lighter.

Sunday through Thursday...The overall pattern will reside around
an upper level low over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level
ridge trying to build over the upper Midwest. As a result, expect
temperatures to trend towards more seasonal normals next week,
with a small chance for a passing shower/thunderstorm. Monday
looks to be the day most favorable for some storms, otherwise Tue
thru Thursday the storms are expected to be quite isolated in
terms of coverage at this time. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1800Z.
An upper level front is moving across Montana from the west. Expect
increasing mid/high level clouds through the day. Northwest surface
winds are expected behind a front this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop in the early afternoon over Southwest MT
and move northeastward into Central MT by evening, mainly east of a
KHLN to KHVR line. Expect scattered storms to linger over Southwest
and Central MT into Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected but
MVFR/IFR conditions and erratic winds are likely in/near any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  76  50  68  51 /  50  70  40  50
CTB  68  49  64  47 /  60  30  60  50
HLN  77  50  67  50 /  70  80  30  20
BZN  79  49  64  46 /  80  90  70  30
WEY  74  41  54  35 /  30  80  80  50
DLN  74  46  62  42 /  70  80  40  30
HVR  80  51  69  51 /  20  30  70  40
LWT  76  48  62  46 /  80  90  60  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
253 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

MTZ050-054-282130-
Judith Basin MT-Meagher MT-
253 PM MDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MEAGHER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL JUDITH BASIN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 252 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of White Sulphur Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Checkerboard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 11058 4659 11069 4687 11039 4671 11027
      4650 11028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 262DEG 10KT 4658 11055

KJ