Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
The convection ahead of the cold front will continue to
move through the area this afternoon and evening, with the
cold front itself pushing south of the area later tonight.
Cooler and drier high pressure builds into the area behind
the front overnight and Wednesday. Breezy conditions will
subside a bit overnight and turn to the NW, and then return
later Wednesday morning. Another Lake Wind Advisory may be
necessary for Wednesday afternoon. The Rip Current Risk will
remain in place through the period, with the Small Craft
Advisory also extended through the period. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 40s north to the mid 60s south. Highs
Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)...
Strong high pressure will continue to build southward over
the middle of the week with breezy conditions persisting
into Wednesday night. As high pressure settles in Thursday
into Friday, winds will gradually weaken. A fairly
substantial radiational cooling event will unfold for the
latter half of the week, with lows in the 40s most areas,
and perhaps middle and upper 30s north of I-4. Due to the
very dry air in place, fire weather may become a concern for
the latter half of the week with low afternoon humidities
each day. Otherwise, rather benign weather is expected.

Conditions will moderate a bit through the weekend as high
pressure shifts east and southerly flow resumes. This will
allow for more seasonal temperatures from Sunday into early
next week, with highs in the middle and upper 70s and lows
in the 50s. Long range models show another cold front
approaching the region from the north as we enter next week.
But rain chances at this time remain quite low.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR ceilings continue across the area with some
convection moving near the northern terminals. Thunderstorm
coverage will increase through the later afternoon and
evening with the frontal system, and winds will continue to
increase through the afternoon. Winds diminish a bit
overnight as the front pushes south of the area and skies
clear out.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will continue to increase this evening as the
cold front pushes through the waters and high pressure
starts to build into the area. The high pressure center will
gradually build south into the region through Friday, and
then shift east to over the Atlantic for the weekend. Winds
and seas will diminish below advisory levels Wednesday
night/Thursday early morning and have extended the Advisory
through then.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold front with the system today will push south of the
area this evening, with cooler and drier high pressure
building into the area behind it. This will allow for
afternoon humidities to fall to critical levels for a few
hours Wednesday, and even lower humidities expected Thursday
and Friday afternoons as the high pressure center builds
south over the region. Conditions will finally begin to
moderate for Saturday afternoon, though a couple of hours of
critical humidities will still be possible. Any
watches/warning will be dependent upon ERC values.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  57  68  48  66 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  64  73  50  71 /  40  10   0   0
GIF  56  72  45  69 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  60  69  52  65 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  52  67  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  68  53  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-
     Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
521 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-202130-
Sumter-Pinellas-Polk-Hardee-Highlands-DeSoto-Coastal Levy-
Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Pasco-
Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Citrus-
Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Manatee-
Inland Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Tampa Bay waters-
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
521 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central And Southwest
Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Thunderstorms are expected starting later this morning over the
Nature Coast, then spreading southward through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, with
damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes all possible.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Strong onshore winds and building surf will lead to strong and
frequent rip currents along area beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Winds and seas will increase over the coastal waters along and
behind a cold front that will move through the area today and
tonight. Winds will increase to 20-25 knots, with higher gusts,
and seas will build up to 10 feet offshore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
Strong onshore winds and increased surf will lead to strong and
frequent rip currents along area beaches.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
Elevated winds and seas will continue through the first part of
Wednesday, but begin to subside later in the day and into
Wednesday night.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A much drier air mass will spill into the region behind a cold
front, with long durations of critical relative humidity values
expected each afternoon through the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the weather
and self activate if needed.

Carlisle

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             SAINT PETERSBURG        27.76N 82.67W
03/20/2018  E0.75 INCH       PINELLAS           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL FALLING IN ST.
            PETE.

&&

MCKAUGHAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
331 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             CRYSTAL RIVER           28.90N 82.60W
03/20/2018  E0.88 INCH       CITRUS             FL   PUBLIC

            A SCHOOL BUS DRIVER REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN CRYSTAL
            RIVER.

&&

MCKAUGHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
349 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 W FORT DESOTO PARK    27.61N 82.76W
03/20/2018  E73 MPH          GMZ853             FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW STATION NEAR EGMONT KEY MEASURED A WIND GUST
            OF 73 MPH...64 KNOTS.

&&

MCKAUGHAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
353 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

FLZ052-251-255-202030-
Inland Manatee FL-Polk FL-Inland Hillsborough FL-
353 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK AND
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of thunderstorms
9 miles east of Fish Hawk, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Plant City, Winter Haven, Bartow, Auburndale, Fish Hawk,
Lakeland Linder Airport, Medulla, Jan Phyl Village, Fussels Corner,
Fort Meade, Lake Alfred, Mulberry, Eagle Lake, Homeland, Alturas,
Alafia River State Park, Winter Haven Airport, Fort Lonesome and
Wahneta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Ruskin.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central and
west central Florida.

LAT...LON 2773 8159 2764 8203 2765 8205 2764 8206
      2761 8220 2797 8223 2808 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 253DEG 22KT 2780 8206

TBW