Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
239 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Showers and storms generated along the seabreeze, and further inland
associated with weak upper-level forcing will gradually diminish
after sunset. Scattered areas of light rain could linger as late as
midnight. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 70s under cloudy
skies.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The recent stretch of active weather may finally be drawing to a
close as weak ridging starts to build over the region during the
short term period. While some west-southwesterly flow will
continue into Sunday afternoon resulting in scattered showers and
storms, the 1000-700 mb flow becomes light and variable on Monday,
which combined with the building ridging should return rain
chances to the normal range (30-40 percent PoPs). Temperatures
throughout the short term period will feature highs in the lower
90s and lows in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Through much of the long term period, model guidance is in good
agreement that at least some weak mid level ridging should remain
in place across the Southeast. In fact, by Wed/Thurs, model
guidance is showing that some drier mid level air will begin to
work in from the east, which could further reduce afternoon shower
and thunderstorm potential. As a result rain chances are generally
at or slightly below normal for late June, in the 30-40 percent
range. Given lower storm chances, afternoon temperatures will be a
little warmer with a few spots getting into the mid 90s. Max
daytime heat indices by mid week will be in the low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF for just about all
terminals (outside of thunderstorms). Showers and thunderstorms
will bring with them the potential for IFR vis restrictions and
gusty winds. The main exception to VFR will be near dawn at DHN
where low-end MVFR to high end IFR visibilities and ceilings are
expected.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas are expected through the next few days.
Some enhancement in winds and seas is expected near the coast with
the daily sea breeze circulation.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersions below 20 are possible Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
there are no other fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A typical summertime pattern is expected, which will keep any
widespread rainfall amounts low. However, as the steering flow
becomes weaker by the first of the week, isolated heavy rainfall
is possible from stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  92  71  91  72 /  20  40  20  30  20
Panama City   77  87  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
Dothan        73  90  72  91  73 /  20  50  20  30  20
Albany        73  89  72  90  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      71  90  72  90  72 /  30  50  30  30  20
Cross City    71  92  73  90  71 /  10  40  30  30  10
Apalachicola  75  88  75  88  75 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

FLZ007-009-161815-
Holmes FL-North Walton FL-
1233 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL WALTON AND
NORTHWESTERN HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
De Funiak Springs, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
De Funiak Springs, Union, Liberty, Cluster Springs, Leonia, Sand
Hill, Barker Store, Cerrogordo, Prosperity, Darlington, Gritney,
Arrant Settlement, Sweetgum Head, Royals Crossroads, Glendale,
Pleasant Hill, Center Ridge, Hickory Hill, Izagora and New Hope.

LAT...LON 3099 8603 3099 8583 3086 8573 3071 8612
      3083 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 235DEG 16KT 3081 8611

15-HARRIGAN

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