Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Tallahassee, FL

784 
WWUS52 KTAE 161748
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
148 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

FLC065-073-161758-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-180616T1800Z/
Jefferson FL-Leon FL-
148 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN LEON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3036 8415 3045 8418 3053 8399 3035 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 261DEG 19KT 3043 8400 

$$

15-HARRIGAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1028 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.UPDATE...

The forecast for today is in good shape, and updates were not
necessary this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [633 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast today. At the
surface a weak stationary boundary or low will be over Central AL
and Central GA. The wet pattern continues today as southerly flow
continues to provide abundant low-level moisture. Precipitable water
is forecast to be slightly above 2 inches today. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will likely start in the FL Panhandle and SE AL
this morning, then spread eastward throughout the day. A few strong
to severe storms are possible today with CAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/KG.
Highs will be mainly in the upper 80s today due to increased cloud
cover and rain.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Upper level ridging will strengthen across the southeast for the
short term and with the upper level vort max out of the picture
that has helped to enhance convection recently, this will allow
for a downward trend in PoPs Sunday and Monday (20-50%). Showers
and thunderstorms will be diurnally driven and thus the highest
PoPs will be during the afternoon. With a downward trends in PoPs
and moving away from a pattern of the earlier convection, highs
will be able to reach into the lower 90s with the upper 80s along
the coast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The upper level ridge will persist through the long term with
mainly southerly flow at the surface continuing to bring Gulf
moisture into the CWA. This moisture combined with the seabreeze
and outflow boundaries will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day, primarily in the afternoon and evening.
Expect highs in the lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

Isolated patchy fog and low CIGs will improve shortly after sunrise.
The wet pattern continues today with scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon hours. VFR conditions are
expected today outside of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog and
low CIGs will return late tonight but will likely be isolated.

.MARINE...

Light winds will persist through early next week. Seas will be 2-3
feet with a brief period of 4 feet offshore. There is a slight
chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms each day.

.FIRE WEATHER...

The wet pattern continues today. Low dispersions below 20 are
possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Patchy fog is
possible in the early morning hours.

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall amounts around 1 inch are expected over the
next three days. While these amounts are not significant for the
area, isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible today with any
training from thunderstorms and this may result in localized,
nuisance flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  71  91  72  91 /  50  20  30  20  40
Panama City   85  75  87  75  87 /  60  10  20  10  30
Dothan        87  72  90  72  90 /  60  30  30  30  30
Albany        89  73  90  73  91 /  50  30  40  20  40
Valdosta      89  71  90  71  90 /  50  30  40  20  40
Cross City    90  72  91  72  89 /  40  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  87  75  87  75  88 /  40  10  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Harrigan
NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux